想知道在今年下半年的市場前景嗎？請密切關注截至三月這一季的財報吧！從這一季的財報數(shù)字，我們將可看到業(yè)界眾家廠商在這一年開始時的表現(xiàn)如何。這對于一個仍處于動蕩中的市場尤其重要，因為它將為我們對于下半年的前景預期提供一些深入的了解。 如果你是一家OEM，透過這些數(shù)字將有助于您確定供應商們?nèi)绾味▋r、其相對的財務優(yōu)勢與劣勢、產(chǎn)品開發(fā)藍圖，以及所處的競爭地位。組件供應商則可以利用第一季財務檔案以及各家企業(yè)高管的評論，取得有利的信息，為客戶進行分級，以及決定分別為不同的合作伙伴提供什么樣的資源。 市場不斷地變動，相信我們都必須以更深入的眼光來了解市況。然而，普遍的市場環(huán)境并不太容易解讀。例如當單一家公司─蘋果公司(Apple)─擁有超過 2/3的平板計算機市占率時，你該怎么解讀這個市場呢？對于蘋果公司的供應商來說，這種市場優(yōu)勢可能是十分美好的，但對于為Asus、Dell、Motorola Mobility、Nokia與Samsung等競相爭奪剩余一小部份平板市場的公司提供產(chǎn)品的供應商而言，這樣的市場卻為他們帶來了挑戰(zhàn)。 你可能了解自家公司在第一季的表現(xiàn)如何，但在這個交錯縱橫的產(chǎn)業(yè)中，更重要的是看清整個市場大局。為了掌握這個產(chǎn)業(yè)的未來前景，我認為在廠商發(fā)布這一季財報時，有五項值得我們關注的關鍵領域信息不容錯過： 去年同期的銷售成長 對于許多公司來說，去年第四季的成長表現(xiàn)不如預期。原本市場預期2011年第四季將出現(xiàn)強勁成長，這一進展還將延續(xù)到2012年第一季。然而，2011年第四季的結果令人失望，因而在第一季的銷售有多暢旺就不得而知了。有些公司幸運地取得了 iPad 與 iPhone 的訂單，因而實現(xiàn)豐碩的銷售數(shù)字，而其它廠商則只有些微的進展。如果整個業(yè)界的銷售成長分布不均，那么這將是個值得關注的議題。然而，根據(jù)資料來源得知，半導體市場的多家公司將在這一季交出強勁成長的財報。 利潤 高科技市場仍然是一個非常高利潤取向的領域。組件商用化與價格減損正逐步侵蝕企業(yè)利潤。到目前為止，定價已經(jīng)不是問題了，因為供需情況一直很穩(wěn)定，甚至逐漸走向均衡狀態(tài)。組件供應商在價格壓力上首當其沖。甚至連2011年3月日本強震和年底泰國水災為供應商帶來了重大的價格變化。 如果利潤率維持穩(wěn)定，產(chǎn)業(yè)很可能在下半年維持一個理性平衡的情況。OEM現(xiàn)在正掌握著產(chǎn)品的定價，但任何的天災或需求的急劇上升都可能為他們帶來沖擊與壓力。 本文下一頁：現(xiàn)金與庫存 本文授權編譯自EBN Online，版權所有，謝絕轉載

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{pagination} 庫存水位 我喜歡觀察庫存水位，你也應該關注這一點。它不但說明了過去，也暗示著未來。如果庫存水位低而需求激活，廠商可以預期提高制造產(chǎn)量，而庫存水位高則抑制生產(chǎn)。然而，有些公司故意在產(chǎn)品導入前先行累積庫存。看看蘋果公司在新一代iPad亮相前一季(截止于12月31日)，庫存飆升至12億美元。今年第一季 (3月)的庫存水平應該較低些。 對于供應庫存基礎，三月底的庫存增加可能表示銷售減緩。我們還應該密切關注組件通路商的庫存。這些廠商(尤其是業(yè)界主要廠商)具有廣泛的組件管理經(jīng)驗，同時其調(diào)整庫存增加或減少的趨勢有助于供應商了解實際的需求環(huán)境。 個別公司財報變化 在高科技領域，贏家通常只有少數(shù)幾家，而表現(xiàn)持平的廠商數(shù)量則不斷地增加。有些公司可望在第一季交出漂亮的財報，其它廠商則持續(xù)處于勉強存活的動蕩模式。這些信息是很重要的，因為它意味著分析師與業(yè)界觀察家們無法根據(jù)業(yè)界主導廠商或其它公司的表現(xiàn)進行長期的趨勢預測。當你仔細觀察某家公司的財報時，記住它并不能代表整個業(yè)界的發(fā)展趨勢。 現(xiàn)金供應 現(xiàn)金仍然是王道，但越來越多嗎？電子產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)金充裕的情況已經(jīng)持續(xù)很長一段時間了。對于全球經(jīng)濟局勢以及貸款條件嚴格的關切，使得高科技公司和其它許多產(chǎn)業(yè)都致力于建立起堆積如山的現(xiàn)金。這也反映出一種謹慎支出的態(tài)勢──資本支出計劃受到嚴格的限制。然而，如果現(xiàn)金累積未能像最近這幾年這樣地迅速增加(蘋果的經(jīng)驗除外），那么這如果不是因為需求趨于下滑，就是廠商們終于開始支出投資于預期能增加銷售的更多計劃中。雖然要確定究竟是哪一種情形可能不容易，但并非不可能。 我最后的建議是：也不要過度斟酌于第一季的財報數(shù)字。資產(chǎn)負債表上的銷售與獲利數(shù)字并不像表面上看來這么重要。相形之下，擁有豐厚的現(xiàn)金流、平均庫存以及有限借貸比起巨大的銷售數(shù)字更重要。同時，管理階層對于當前以及即將到來的一季發(fā)表信心喊話以及評論，也比剛結束的上一季表現(xiàn)更重要。在賽車時只看后照鏡，往往無法取得最后勝利。無論在你后面的是什么，有什么可擔心的呢？ 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權編譯自EBN Online，版權所有，謝絕轉載 參考英文原文：5 Areas to Watch in Q1 Results，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} 5 Areas to Watch in Q1 Results Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief Want to know what's ahead for the rest of the year? Stay alert for the March quarter results. They will tell us how the various industry players performed at the beginning of the year. More significantly for a market still in turmoil, they will provide some insights into what we can expect for the second half of the year. If you are an OEM, the numbers will help you determine how your suppliers are faring, their relative financial strengths and weaknesses, a product roadmap, and the competitive position. Component suppliers can use information from first-quarter financial filings and comments by corporate bosses to rate customers and determine what level of resources to devote to individual partners. The market is in flux, and I believe we can all use deeper insights into market conditions. However, the general environment isn't quite that easy to read. How do you rate the tablet market, where a single company -- Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) -- has a marketshare of more than two-thirds? This domainance may be perfect for Apple suppliers, but it presents a bit of a conundrum for those supplying products to the likes of Asus, Dell, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, and Samsung, all of which are jostling for crumbs. You may know how your company performed in the first quarter, but the big picture is even more important in such an interwoven market. To understand what lies ahead for the industry, I would be looking for information in five critical areas as companies announce their results: 1. Sales growth from a year earlier. For many companies, this growth (as opposed to growth from the previous quarter) wasn't that great in the December quarter. Expectations were for strong growth in the final quarter of 2011 and continued improvement in the first quarter of 2012. The fourth-quarter results disappointed, and it's not clear how robust sales were in the first quarter. Some companies lucky to get their products designed into iPads and iPhones are experiencing gangbuster sales. Others will report piddling improvements. If there's sales growth happening, it's not spread evenly across the industry, and that is a concern. However, sources tell me some companies in the semiconductor market will report strong sales. 2. Margins. The high-tech market is still a very highly margin-sensitive sector. Component commoditization and price erosion are nibbling away steadily at corporate profits. So far, pricing hasn't been a problem, because the demand-supply situation has been very steady and has even moved more toward a state of equilibrium. Component suppliers are taking the brunt of most price pressures. Not even the March 2011 earthquake in Japan and the flooding in Thailand late in the year shifted pricing in any significant manner toward suppliers. If margins remain steady, the industry is most likely to be in a reasonably balanced condition for the second half of the year. OEMs are in the driver's seat for now in pricing, but any other natural disaster or a sharp upswing in demand could swing the pendulum away from them. 3. Inventories. I love watching the inventory ticker, and so should you. It speaks to the past but foretells the future. If inventory levels are low and demand is kicking in, companies can be expected to ramp up manufacturing. A rise in stocks could tamp down production. However, some companies purposely build inventory ahead of a product introduction. Apple's inventory shot up in the quarter that ended Dec. 31 to $1.2 billion ahead of the debut of the new iPad. Its inventory should be lower for the March quarter. For the supply base, a rise in inventory at the end of March probably indicates slowing sales. We should also pay close attention to inventories at component distributors. These companies, especially the industry leaders, have extensive parts management expertise, and the direction of their inventory (up or down) can help suppliers understand the demand environment. 4. Variance in individual company results. There's Apple, and then there are all the others. In the high-tech sector, the group of winners is very small, and the number of average performers has been growing. Some companies will post great first-quarter results. Others will continue to trundle along in barely-surviving mode. This is important, because it means analysts and industry observers cannot make any long-term generalizations based on the performance of leaders or any other group. As you contemplate the results of a particular company, remember that it most likely isn't representative of the industry. 5. Cash supply. Cash is still king, but is it growing? The electronics industry has been awash in cash for quite a while. Concerns about the global economy and tight lending conditions have driven high-tech companies and many others to build up a mountain of cash. This also reflects a cautionary attitude toward spending -- capital expenditure projects have been severely constrained. However, if the cash heap isn't growing as quickly as it has been these last few years (ignore Apple's experience, which is an anomaly), then either demand is trending down, or companies are at last beginning to spend more on projects they expect to increase sales. Determining exactly what's going on could be tricky but not impossible. My final suggestion: Don't obsess over the first-quarter results. The sales and profit numbers aren't as important as what is on the balance sheet. A boatload of cash, average inventory, and limited debts are more important than gangbuster sales. What executives have to say about the current and upcoming quarters is also more significant than their relative position in the quarter that just ended. You don't win a race by looking only in the rearview mirror. Whatever's there is already behind you. Why worry about it?