EBN博客作家Anna young日前在文中指出，雅虎公司(Yahoo Inc.)需要一個(gè)更大膽冒險(xiǎn)的全新發(fā)展計(jì)劃。我認(rèn)為Yahoo所能采取的最佳行動(dòng)就是收購(gòu)正陷于混亂中的Blackberry制造商──Research In Motion (RIM)。特別是在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手不斷蠶食兩家公司分別在搜索引擎與行動(dòng)設(shè)備市場(chǎng)之際，這兩家公司更迫切地彼此需要，一旦猶疑不決，這兩家公司的抉擇將越來(lái)越少。 這兩家公司都面臨著同樣的困擾──無(wú)法超越原有的服務(wù)與產(chǎn)品，以尋求公司轉(zhuǎn)型。RIM一度稱霸智能手機(jī)與行動(dòng)企業(yè)傳訊(enterprise messaging)領(lǐng)域──其BlackBerry智能手機(jī)曾經(jīng)是商務(wù)人士的寵兒，而今他們腰間所配戴的行動(dòng)設(shè)備卻已不再是RIM手機(jī)，而由蘋果公司 (Apple)以及Google Android的設(shè)備所取代了。 越來(lái)越多的業(yè)界傳聞證實(shí)：RIM公司除非能提出新的發(fā)展計(jì)劃力求振作，否則其企業(yè)傳訊市占率將持續(xù)下滑。以我自己的例子來(lái)看，最近我的公司提供了一支iPhone 3替代我原本的BlackBerry公務(wù)手機(jī)。長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)我都使用BlackBerry手機(jī)，因此，至今才知道公司的企業(yè)傳訊系統(tǒng)也可支持iPhone。但這并不只是發(fā)生在我的公司。由于許多員工厭倦了BlackBerry設(shè)備的功能選擇有限，越來(lái)越多公司開始提供并支持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品。像我個(gè)人就感覺三星 Galaxy S2的新使用體驗(yàn)越來(lái)越令人滿意。當(dāng)然，并不是只有我一個(gè)人這么覺得。就連蘋果公司共同創(chuàng)辦人Steve Wozniak也認(rèn)為Android的設(shè)備在某些方面仍較蘋果的iOS勝出。 Yahoo的情況并沒好到哪里去，實(shí)際上是越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。該公司的市占率正迅速地流向Google和Facebook。其廣告營(yíng)收基礎(chǔ)已經(jīng)被像Facebook這樣的社群媒體公司侵蝕，導(dǎo)致整個(gè)公司的營(yíng)收正大幅衰退中。Yahoo公司的銷售數(shù)字大幅下滑，從2010年第四季的16億美元減少到2011年第四季約12億美元。預(yù)計(jì)年?duì)I收也將自2010的 46億美元大幅下滑至2011年約為44億美元左右。業(yè)界預(yù)觀察家甚至預(yù)期Yahoo在2012年的營(yíng)收將較2011年僅微幅增加至45.6億美元。 這兩家公司看來(lái)都不算是理想的收購(gòu)目標(biāo)。Yahoo并未提出收購(gòu)價(jià)碼供考慮，而微軟似乎也只對(duì)于將Yahoo拆解開來(lái)買有興趣。但這畢竟不是Yahoo想要 的。如果Yahoo出售其于中國(guó)阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的40%股份，以及在日本Yahoo約35%的股份，那么公司市值還可能更進(jìn)一步下跌，并因而將影響其于全球的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力。除此之外就沒有其它可能收購(gòu)Yahoo的潛力買家了──除了業(yè)界最大的科技公司以外，這家市場(chǎng)資本額達(dá)200億美元的 Yahoo對(duì)于任何公司而言都太大規(guī)模了，不太可能吃得下來(lái)。 RIM也并未提出任何可能的收購(gòu)邀約。本月中旬，由于市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)三星公司有興趣收購(gòu)RIM，使得RIM的股票價(jià)格飆升。 本文下一頁(yè)：兩家公司互相嫌棄 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 大限將到，RIM是否還有翻身之日？
• 移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)2011年十大熱點(diǎn)新聞
• 品牌平板電腦美國(guó)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格追蹤：Kindle Fire已非最低vmWesmc

{pagination} 業(yè)界分析師們并不看好對(duì)于RIM的收購(gòu)交易。美商Sterne Agee公司分析師Shaw Wu顧慮的是RIM公司目前約90億美的市值可能為潛在的收購(gòu)?fù)稑?biāo)者帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)，特別是因?yàn)樵摴疽呀?jīng)沒多少優(yōu)勢(shì)了。針對(duì)我的提問(wèn)，Shaw Wu在回復(fù)我的email中對(duì)于三星或微軟收購(gòu)RIM的可能性潑了一桶冷水。他說(shuō)： “我們認(rèn)為該公司約有 50-70億美元的潛在價(jià)值，即每股約9-13美元。我們認(rèn)為，RIM最有價(jià)值的資產(chǎn)就在于其專利產(chǎn)品組合和BlackBerry Messenger (BBM)應(yīng)用程序。我們估計(jì)其專利組合可能價(jià)值20-30億美元，這個(gè)價(jià)格可能是蘋果公司主導(dǎo)(RIM也是其中之一)共同付給北電的金額，以及 Google收購(gòu)Motorola Mobile公司的價(jià)格。此外，對(duì)于具有4,500萬(wàn)用戶BBM方案而言，估計(jì)其價(jià)值約有20-30億美元。 最后且重要的是，我們認(rèn)為RIM的push network與BlackBerry操作系統(tǒng)的價(jià)值較令人質(zhì)疑，因?yàn)檫@兩項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品都面臨著市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的問(wèn)題。盡管如此，我們估計(jì)其價(jià)值約10億美元(取得Palm所付出的代價(jià))。因此，估計(jì)RIM約有50-70億美元的價(jià)值，即9-13美元的股票價(jià)格，但約略低于該公司目前的行情。 當(dāng) 然還有其它必須注意的考慮因素：（1）三星采用Android操作系統(tǒng)的表現(xiàn)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)了──事實(shí)上，他們正逐漸取得更多向宏達(dá)電(HTC)與摩托羅拉 (Motorola)授權(quán)的其它Android廠商的市占率；（2）微軟公司積極投入于其Windows Phone 7操作系統(tǒng)──再另外下注于另一個(gè)陷于困境中的操作系統(tǒng)并沒什么意義；（3）在國(guó)家安全利益的考量下，加拿大政府并不允許外資在加國(guó)境內(nèi)的收購(gòu)行動(dòng)。” 不過(guò)，我認(rèn)為這場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽最后也不至于失敗。RIM仍然是一家有盈利而無(wú)長(zhǎng)期債務(wù)的公司。所以，就是Yahoo的最佳選擇了。RIM擁有健全的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表(約 15億美元現(xiàn)金、短期和長(zhǎng)期投資)，Yahoo也一樣(沒有債務(wù)，擁有70億美元現(xiàn)金、短期和長(zhǎng)期投資)。RIM每年?duì)I收約199億美元(2011財(cái) 年)；而Yahoo在這方面雖相形見絀(2011年約63億美元)，不過(guò)這家搜索引擎供貨商卻擁有一個(gè)龐大的市場(chǎng)資本(200億美元v.s. RIM公司的90億美元)，這意味著投資人并不會(huì)注意到RIM具有的更高銷售數(shù)字。 所以，這就是我的建議。兩家公司合并吧！ 有些市場(chǎng)觀察家并不相信合并的公平性，我也認(rèn)同這樣的看法。Yahoo將因而主導(dǎo)這一合資企業(yè)。那么，這樣的一種合并行動(dòng)對(duì)于兩家公司來(lái)說(shuō)又有什么好處 呢？首先，對(duì)于雙方展開全新發(fā)展的迫切需要；其次，取得進(jìn)入新市場(chǎng)以及鞏固現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)地位的機(jī)會(huì)；第三，帶來(lái)可善加利用約85億美元合并現(xiàn)金以及更大借貸實(shí) 力的機(jī)會(huì)，以推動(dòng)至更大相鄰市場(chǎng)地位。最后，未來(lái)將可相互支持共同在網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)與無(wú)線市場(chǎng)打拼的機(jī)會(huì)。 但RIM和Yahoo可愿采取這樣的步驟？我對(duì)此表示懷疑。這兩家公司已經(jīng)蟄伏太久了，加上RIM公司目前采取雙CEO以及雙董事會(huì)主席的結(jié)構(gòu)本身就是一大阻礙。無(wú)論如何，目前清楚可知的是兩家公司對(duì)于彼此的現(xiàn)狀都并不感興趣。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Yahoo's Next Best Move? Buy/Merge With RIM，by Bolaji Ojo

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 大限將到，RIM是否還有翻身之日？
• 移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)2011年十大熱點(diǎn)新聞
• 品牌平板電腦美國(guó)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格追蹤：Kindle Fire已非最低vmWesmc

{pagination} Yahoo's Next Best Move? Buy/Merge With RIM by Bolaji Ojo EBN blogger Anna Young says Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) needs a new bolder and riskier growth plan. Here's one: It should buy troubled BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM). Both companies need each other direly, and their options dwindle as they dawdle, even as competitors chew up their respective market shares in search engine and mobile devices. (See: Yahoo, Yang-less, Needs Riskier, Bolder Plan.) The two companies are plagued by a similar malaise -- the inability to transform beyond original services and products. RIM was once King of the Hill in smartphones and mobile enterprise messaging. Its BlackBerry smartphones were the darling of business people, but the waists that once were adorned with RIM phones are now sporting Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android devices. Anecdotal evidence is piling up that RIM's share of the enterprise messaging market will keep declining, unless it comes up with a new plan. Recently, I misplaced my company-issued BlackBerry device and was offered an iPhone 3 as a possible replacement. I stuck with the BlackBerry, but until then, I didn't even know my company supported the iPhone for enterprise messaging. It does, now. And, it's not alone. More companies, pressured by employees tired of the BlackBerry's limited options, are supporting and offering competitive products. Personally, I am discovering newer and newer uses for my Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC) Galaxy S2, which I am quite satisfied with. Apparently, I am not alone. Even Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak believes Android devices trump Apple iOS in some areas. Yahoo's position isn't any better, and it is in fact getting worse. The company is losing market share fast to Google and Facebook . Its advertising revenue base is being eroded by social media companies like Facebook, and the decline is likely to keep accelerating. The company's sales have been sliding with year-over-year quarterly revenue dropping in the three months ended September 30, 2011 to $1.2 billion from $1.6 billion, in the year-ago quarter. Sales for 2011 are estimated to be in the range of $4.4 billion, down sharply from $4.6 billion in 2010. Forecasters expect Yahoo's 2012 revenue to rise only slightly from the prior year to $4.56 billion. Neither company is a great acquisition target. Yahoo has no offers on the table, and it appears Microsoft is only interested in buying bits and pieces of the company. This is not in Yahoo's interest. If Yahoo sells its 40 percent stake in China's Alibaba and 35 percent interest in Yahoo Japan, its market value is likely to decline even further, and so will its ability to compete globally. No other potential offers are likely for Yahoo, which, with a market capitalization of nearly $20 billion, is too large to be gobbled up by anything but the biggest tech companies in the market. None of them appear interested. RIM is not fielding any plausible acquisition offers, either. The company's stock price soared earlier this week on speculations Samsung Electronics might be interested in making an offer, a rumor that the Korean company torpedoed on Wednesday. RIM's shares are already giving up the gains; on Wednesday, they dove more than 3 percent after the Samsung report. Analysts are not particularly gung ho about a deal for RIM. Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee was concerned that RIM's current market value (about $9 billion) poses a challenge to potential bidders, since the upside might be "limited." In a report emailed to me on Wednesday, Shaw poured cold water on the likelihood of Samsung or Microsoft making a bid for RIM. He said: We see $5-$7 billion potential value, meaning $9-$13 per share. We believe its most valuable assets are arguably its patent portfolio and BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) app. We estimate its patent portfolio could be worth $2-$3 billion assuming the prices that an AAPL led team paid (which RIMM was part of) for Nortel assets and GOOG for MMI. For BBM with its 45 million users, we estimate it could be worth $2-$3 billion. Last but not least, we believe the value of its push network and BlackBerry OS are more questionable given competitive issues both have had in the marketplace but nonetheless, we assign a value of $1 billion (the price paid for PALM). This gives us a valuation of $5-$7 billion, meaning a stock price of $9-$13, which is a bit below where it is currently trading. Other considerations. The other considerations to keep in mind are: (1) Samsung is doing very well with Android -- in fact, they are taking share against fellow Android licensees HTC and Motorola; (2) MSFT has effectively made its bet on its Windows Phone 7 operating system -- it makes little sense to bet on another OS that is having difficulty; and (3) the Canadian government may not allow an acquisition by a foreign company due to national security interests. Ouch. The game is not lost, though. RIM is still a profitable company with no long-term debts. So is Yahoo. RIM has a healthy balance sheet (about $1.5 billion in cash, short- and long-term investments) and so does Yahoo (no debts and $7 billion in cash, short and long-term investments). RIM's annual sales of $19.9 billion (fiscal 2011) dwarfs Yahoo's ($6.3 billion in calendar 2011), but the search engine provider has a much bigger market capitalization ($20 billion versus RIM's $9 billion), which means investors aren't that impressed with RIM's higher sales. So, this is what I suggest. A merger of the two companies -- some market watchers don't believe in a merger of equals, and I tend to agree. Yahoo will therefore dominate such a venture. What are the advantages of such a hook up to both companies? First, a much needed new lease on life; second, the opportunity to enter new markets and solidify positions in existing operations; third, a chance to leverage about $8.5 billion in combined cash and significant borrowing strength to push for a bigger role in adjacent markets; and, lastly, the chance to fight for a future in the mutually supportive Internet and wireless markets. But will RIM and Yahoo take such a step? I doubt it. They've both been too timid for far too long, and RIM's current co-CEO and co-chairman structure is in itself obstructionist. What's clear is that the status quo isn't in either company's interest.