我想我是唯一對(duì)目前各家商業(yè)媒體爭(zhēng)相報(bào)導(dǎo)自動(dòng)駕駛車輛、積極預(yù)測(cè)其光明前景感到有點(diǎn)不安的人──確實(shí)，看著 Google Car 如何在加州Mountain View的街上穿梭自如是令人興奮的，但當(dāng)我聽到 BMW 預(yù)測(cè)，完全自動(dòng)駕駛車輛至少要到2025年才有機(jī)會(huì)問世，我忍不住想嘆氣：在這個(gè)因特網(wǎng)的時(shí)代，十年就已經(jīng)是永無休止的等待了… 但想象一下，在2025年有個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛車輛的“駕駛?cè)恕保噲D從俄羅斯開車到德國、或是從紐約開車到佛羅里達(dá)州？如市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Technology的車用半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)首席分析師De Ambroggi所言，每個(gè)國家、或是美國的每一個(gè)州，對(duì)于車輛都有不同的法令規(guī)章，要在十年內(nèi)調(diào)和所有不同規(guī)范恐怕不是簡(jiǎn)單任務(wù)。 我猜測(cè)，今日所討論的自動(dòng)駕駛車輛，將會(huì)分成不同階段問世；每個(gè)階段的自動(dòng)駕駛車輛都有需要遵守的明文規(guī)定。 顯然，汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)與科技供貨商們都有充分動(dòng)機(jī)去描繪自動(dòng)駕駛車輛的光明未來；不只是BMW，幾乎每一家車廠都熱衷于重復(fù)宣傳新車款上的多種先進(jìn)自動(dòng)駕駛輔助系統(tǒng)(advanced driving assistance system，ADAS)功能。而每家車廠都希望能首先獲得新車安全評(píng)鑒協(xié)會(huì)(New Car Assessment Program，NCAP)──歐洲或美國──的整體性五星級(jí)評(píng)鑒。 但是當(dāng)汽車廠商開始將ADAS做為邁向自動(dòng)駕駛車輛時(shí)代的重要第一步，我們還不需要屏息以待，因?yàn)楦叨茸詣?dòng)駕駛車輛與ADAS其實(shí)根本是不同的東西；實(shí)際上，兩者之間有很大的差距。在解剖自動(dòng)駕駛車輛之前，我們先來仔細(xì)看看ADAS市場(chǎng)。 車用半導(dǎo)體供貨商都對(duì)于ADAS芯片的強(qiáng)勁成長(zhǎng)數(shù)字興高采烈，如IHS最近就預(yù)測(cè)，全球ADAS芯片市場(chǎng)到2020年可達(dá)26億美元規(guī)模，是2010年時(shí)的 6.438億美元之四倍以上。驅(qū)動(dòng)ADAS系統(tǒng)的零組件將不只有傳感器芯片、雷達(dá)與攝影機(jī)，不過這幾種是組成今日ADAS芯片市場(chǎng)的主要部份。 其他對(duì)ADAS市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)有貢獻(xiàn)的零組件，還包括微處理器、微控制器、FPGA與內(nèi)存；IHS的Ambroggi表示，如果說影像傳感器等同于汽車的眼睛，其他這幾種組件就是車子的大腦。而IHS預(yù)測(cè)，微處理器與內(nèi)存將在2020年占據(jù)整體ADAS芯片市場(chǎng)的五成比例。 至于那些處理器組件將整合多少功能，以及執(zhí)行多少軟件(或應(yīng)用程序)，端看系統(tǒng)架構(gòu)以及每個(gè)處理單元的功能性。Ambroggi指出，車廠與芯片供貨商選擇 采用模塊化布線是出自于相同的考慮，這種模式能更容易將安全關(guān)鍵硬件與非安全性硬件隔開，在調(diào)整系統(tǒng)時(shí)也更具彈性，端看每種不同車款所搭載之ADAS先進(jìn) 程度。 無論如何，一輛汽車要配備多少先進(jìn)的駕駛輔助功能，也決定了車輛對(duì)處理器、雷達(dá)與傳感器的需求程度。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：ADAS的技術(shù)演進(jìn)

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{pagination} ADAS的技術(shù)演進(jìn) ADAS 實(shí)際上有兩大類，被動(dòng)式與主動(dòng)式。舉例來說，被動(dòng)式ADAS在車輛偏離車道中心時(shí)會(huì)對(duì)駕駛?cè)税l(fā)出警告，主動(dòng)式ADAS則會(huì)實(shí)際對(duì)車輛做出干預(yù)、藉由輕推方 向盤讓車輛回到車道中央；而如果有必要，主動(dòng)式ADAS在發(fā)現(xiàn)前方道路有立即性危險(xiǎn)時(shí)會(huì)啟動(dòng)煞車，被動(dòng)式ADAS在此時(shí)同樣只是對(duì)駕駛?cè)税l(fā)出警告。 配備主動(dòng)式ADAS功能如自動(dòng)緊急煞車(automatic emergency braking，AEB)、自適應(yīng)巡航控制(adaptive cruise control，ACC)以及車道維持輔助(lane keeping assist，LKA)等，我們得要求汽車辨識(shí)交通號(hào)志與路況、做出適當(dāng)?shù)臎Q定并從駕駛?cè)耸种腥〉谜瓶胤较虮P權(quán)力。 當(dāng)然，這種程度的控制會(huì)需要內(nèi)建一套備援系統(tǒng)(redundant system)，因此額外的運(yùn)算能力將可重復(fù)檢查實(shí)際路況。有部分ADAS功能如自動(dòng)煞車、自動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)向以及跟車行駛(platooning)，預(yù)期可在接下 來五年問世，不過IHS的Ambroggi強(qiáng)調(diào)，這還是跟自動(dòng)駕駛車輛不一樣。 Ambroggi指出，為了要讓車輛自動(dòng)駕駛，車廠需要首度將所有系統(tǒng)鏈接；獨(dú)立的ADAS功能不應(yīng)該再獨(dú)立運(yùn)作，需要整合到一個(gè)整體系統(tǒng)中，車輛才能自己由地點(diǎn)A行駛到地點(diǎn)B，完全不需要駕駛?cè)说母深A(yù)；但就算到那個(gè)時(shí)候，所謂的自動(dòng)駕駛車輛還是不等同于“全自動(dòng)駕駛車輛(fully autonomous cars)”。 他預(yù)見自動(dòng)駕駛車輛一開始將會(huì)受到不同的限制，包括駕駛?cè)嗽诤螘r(shí)、何地可使用自動(dòng)駕駛模式，以及如何使用；更具體地說，將會(huì)有特定法規(guī)限制自動(dòng)駕駛僅能在某種道路上執(zhí)行，以及其行駛速率、可適用的天候狀況(例如不可在下雪天執(zhí)行)等等。 只要想一想你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，其實(shí)會(huì)有很多需要限制自動(dòng)駕駛的地方。而我的看法是，如果30年之后有人能夠不受任何限制、大搖大擺地坐在一輛全自動(dòng)駕駛車輛里，那將會(huì)是件很讓人驚訝的事──想要一輛自動(dòng)駕駛汽車嗎？再等個(gè)30年看看吧！ 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：Fully Autonomous Car? Don't Buy Shotgun Yet，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Fully Autonomous Car? Don't Buy Shotgun Yet Junko Yoshida, Chief International Correspondent I doubt that I’m alone in feeling a bit disturbed by the business media’s breathless coverage of the autonomous car and the industry’s aggressive forecasts for it. Sure, seeing a glimpse of how Google Car is driving on surface streets in Mountain View, Calif., is exciting. But when I hear BMW predicting fully automated cars by 2025, I can’t help but say, “Oh, come on, man.” Granted: Ten years is an eternity in the Internet era. But picture a “driver” in an autonomous car in 2025 trying to go from Russia to Germany, or New York to Florida? Each country and, in the case of the United States, each state, has different vehicle regulations. Aligning all the laws and regulations in 10 years will be no easy task, says Luca De Ambroggi, principal analyst for automotive semiconductors at IHS Technology. I suspect what’s discussed today as an "autonomous car" is likely to emerge in phases. These cars in each phase will come with fine print stipulating the conditions under which they must be driven. Obviously, the automotive industry and technology suppliers have every incentive to paint a bright future for autonomous cars. It’s not just BMW. Practically every carmaker is hot to trot out multiple ADAS (advanced driving assistance system) features in their new models. NCAP effect Everyone's gunning for the top overall rating of five stars from the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) -- either the Euro or North American version -- which publishes safety reports on new cars. But when car companies start pitching ADAS as an important first step for the self-driving car era, well, let’s not hold our breath. After all, highly automated cars and autonomous cars aren’t the same thing. In fact, there’s a huge gap. Before dissecting autonomous cars, let's take a closer look at the ADAS market. We see automotive semiconductor suppliers elated with big growth numbers for ADAS chips. IHS, for one, recently predicted worldwide revenue for ADAS chips to “reach $2.6 billion in 2020, more than fourfold the size of the market of $643.8 million a decade earlier in 2010.” Driving ADAS won’t be just sensor ICs, radar, and cameras, although they are a big part of what constitutes the ADAS chip market today. Other components contributing to ADAS growth include microprocessors, microcontrollers, FPGAs, and memory. If image sensors are equivalent to “cars’ eyes,” these are the “cars’ brain,” says Ambroggi. IHS predicts that the MPU/memory segment will eventually hold 50 percent of the ADAS chip market by 2020. How much functional integration takes place in each of these processing units, and how much more software (or apps) each processor ends up running, will depend on the system architecture and the capability of each processing unit. There is an equal argument for car OEMs and chip vendors to opt for the modular route, Ambroggi told me. It allows easy decoupling between safety-critical hardware and non-safety-critical ones, and makes adjustment of a system more flexible, depending on the attach rate of advanced features for each model. Either way, how many more “advanced” driver assistance features a car is designed to offer determines the level of the processors, radars, and sensors the car requires. Evolution from ADAS to autonomous to fully autonomous ADAS, in fact, comes into two classes: passive and active. Passive ADAS, for example, warns a driver when the car starts to veer off the center of a lane. It takes active ADAS for the car to actually intervene, by nudging the steering wheel and putting the car back on center. Active ADAS, if necessary, would brake the car if it sees imminent danger on the road ahead. In contrast, passive ADAS would simply warn the driver. In implementing active ADAS functions such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC), and lane keeping assist (LKA), we are asking the car to interpret road signs and road conditions, make an appropriate decision, and take the wheel from the driver. Surely, this level of control would require a redundant system to be built in, so that the extra computational power would double-check the situation. Some ADAS functions such as automatic braking, steering, and platooning are expected to emerge in the next five years, according to the IHS analyst. But again, that’s not the same thing as autonomous cars, he cautions. In order to make a car self-driving, carmakers need to first connect all the systems together, says Ambroggi. Separate ADAS features should no longer operate independently. They need to be integrated into one coherent system so that a car can drive itself from point A to point B without driver involvement. But even then, autonomous cars aren’t the same as “fully autonomous cars,” he says. He foresees the autonomous car initially coming with different constraints -- in terms of when, where, and how a driver can use the car in autonomous mode. More specifically, there will be specific constraints such as which streets accommodate autonomous driving, at what speed, under what weather conditions (no snow, for example), etc. That’s a lot of restrictions, when you come to think of it. My forecast? I’ll be surprised if I’m riding shotgun in a fully autonomous car -- without any of those constraints -- 30 years from now.