一位美國華爾街分析師指出，有越來越多半導體公司偏向于發(fā)放短期性投資報酬給股東，而不再投資長期性的研發(fā)項目；如果此一情況屬實，對半導體產業(yè)界來說會是個發(fā)展過程中重大且不幸的里程碑。 “在過去，不投資研發(fā)是一個成長停滯以及無法在未來取得競爭力的象征；”該位要求匿名、以便暢所欲言的分析師表示，現在投資人的觀點卻是：“既然芯片產業(yè)不再顯著成長，為何還要繼續(xù)把錢丟進水里？” 據了解，德州儀器(TI) 就是具備上述這種新思維的典范，該公司最近買回了近30億美元的公司股票，使其股價上漲了40%。在去年5月13日的分析師財報會議上，TI首席財務官發(fā)表了 一個已經妥善布置就緒的新模型，讓該公司能釋放現金流并發(fā)放更多股息給股東；TI在過去五年已經回饋給股東的金額，為先前投資目標的113%，累計利潤達 140億美元。 該匿名分析師表示，十年前那些現金可能會被拿來新添1、2座晶圓廠，但今日則不然：“既然成長率一年預期只有5%，為何要拿來投資研發(fā)？當該產業(yè)的投資報酬率(ROI)下滑，人們也需要調整他們的投資策略?！? “每一家公司都在斟酌這個問題，”他補充指出：“成本隨著摩爾定律(Moore's Law)不斷攀升，但潛在回收卻越來越難取得；這些日子以來，你不得不更偏向以一個經濟學家的觀點來思考，而非技術專家?！? 英特爾(Intel) 的策略與TI似乎背道而馳，手上仍擁有許多昂貴的大型晶圓廠，并持續(xù)對那些晶圓廠投資；英特爾回饋給股東的短期利潤一直以來不那么多，但當該公司某天終于 讓那些投資得以回收，也就是獲利大潮來臨的時候。但投資人的“短視”與企業(yè)的“遠見”終究是無法契合；該分析師的結論是：“芯片廠商必須要為了走向未來而 投資。” 依筆者所見，半導體技術進展速度總是比成本增加速度緩慢得多，而自從2008年全球金融風暴以來，半導體產業(yè)兩位數字成長率的時代已經結束；當你開始也加入投資人偏好發(fā)放短期股息、而非進行研發(fā)投資的轉變時，我更傷腦筋的是這個產業(yè)要怎么找新成長動力！ 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：Semis Feel R&D Squeeze，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} Semis Feel R&D Squeeze Rick Merritt, SiliconValley Bureau Chief SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Investors are increasingly rewarding semiconductor companies for short-term returns to shareholders, rather than long term R&D investments, one Wall Street analyst said. If that's true, it marks a significant and unfortunate industry milestone. "In the past not investing in R&D was a sign of no growth and poor ability to compete in the future," said the analyst who asked to remain anonymous so he could speak freely. The new view is the chip sector is not growing significantly, so "why keep throwing good money after bad?" he said. Texas Instruments is the poster child of the new way of thinking. It bought back nearly $3 billion of its stock recently, pumping its share price up 40%. In a May 13 call with financial analysts TI's CFO laid out a new model that's already well in place of freeing up cash so it can pay greater dividends to shareholders. In the last five years, TI returned to shareholders 113% of its previous target, a cumulative $14 billion in profits. A decade ago that cash might have bought a new fab or two, but not today. "Why invest in R&D if growth prospects are about 5% a year, ROI has fallen, and people need to adjust their investments," said the analyst. "Every company is wrestling with this," he said. "The costs are rising on Moore's Law, and the potential returns are more difficult to generate -- you need to be an economist as much as a technologist these days," he added. Intel stands on the opposite end of the spectrum from TI, still holding lots of big expensive fabs and still investing in them. Its short-term returns to shareholders have not been so great, but the tide may turn if Intel can make those investments pay off some day. In the end there's a mismatch in the short-term time horizon of investors and the long-term horizon of chip companies. "Chip companies have to invest for way into the future," the analyst said. I know advances in silicon technology are coming more slowly at greater cost. I can see how since the financial collapse of 2008, the sun seems to have set on the days of double-digit growth in semiconductors. When you blend in this shift in investors rewarding short-term dividends over R&D investments, the new dynamics are making me reach for the Maalox bottle.