如果你計劃發(fā)展新事業(yè)，并打算在成長迅速的手機市場一鳴驚人，勸你還是忘了這件事，把你的企劃書束之高閣；說真的，手機市場已經(jīng)飽和了。
“有超過34億人，幾乎是全球人口的一半，都至少擁有一支手機。”總部位于美國華盛頓的研究機構(gòu)Worldwatch Institute最近發(fā)表一份報告指出：“在2010年，全球就有超過九成的人口被手機信號覆蓋?！?
這一切看起來很好，每個人都在用手機講話、發(fā)短信、玩游戲；但移動通信注冊用戶的數(shù)量卻帶來了完全不同的視野。
根 據(jù)Worldwatch Institute統(tǒng)計，全球移動通信注冊用戶的數(shù)量已經(jīng)遠超過擁有手機的人口，但成長速度也在趨緩，并在2010年達到一年增加6.8億戶的高峰：“移動通信用戶成長率自2011年開始下滑，估計在2013年新增用戶數(shù)量僅有4.24億，比2010年少了2.5億。”
該研究機構(gòu)的“移動通信用戶(mobile subscriptions)”意指接取移動通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的活躍帳戶，但很多人其實同時擁有很多手機，或是在一支手機中使用多個SIM卡門號，所以移動通信用戶數(shù)超過擁有手機人口數(shù)是可以理解的；不過，這也是問題所在。
全球移動通信用戶總數(shù)估計將由2000年的10億，在2013年底突破68億的門檻，但在未來恐怕很難再有太多成長?？墒菄H電信聯(lián)盟(ITU)期望，全球移動通信用戶數(shù)能在2014年超過全球人口數(shù)，該期限只剩下三個月不到。
Worldwatch Institute的報告寫道：“手機產(chǎn)業(yè)的未來將會與新用戶的增加較不相關(guān)，而會更著重于改善現(xiàn)有的服務(wù)品質(zhì)。”目前全球大多數(shù)移動通信網(wǎng)路仍使用2G技術(shù)，能讓用戶通話與互傳簡訊，該類網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶目前數(shù)量有近47億。
許多研究機構(gòu)針對手機市場所發(fā)布的迷人前景預(yù)測報告，其實都是以全球觀點來看；Worldwatch Institute的報告也不是那種常見的賽馬會輸贏分析，而是以社會與經(jīng)濟的觀點提供了對手機市場的分析。
報告中提到：“也許在開發(fā)中市場不斷成長之手機產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個重要邊際效應(yīng)，是在一些貧窮區(qū)域，金融服務(wù)已經(jīng)與手機使用捆 綁在一起。在一些高度貧困地區(qū)，移動通信用戶在100個人之中有50個人左右，但同樣地區(qū)擁有實體銀行帳戶的人口比例大概只有37%?！?
因此：“金融機構(gòu)已經(jīng)開始利用現(xiàn)有的手機基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)作為交易主體──例如讓客戶開儲蓄帳戶、支付帳單或是匯款──這些動作都可以在地區(qū)的手機零售商店進行?！?
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁：那些舊手機跑去哪里了？
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Worldwatch Institute的報告也提及了手機對環(huán)境帶來的效應(yīng)；據(jù)了解，美國人普遍認為該平均每兩年換一次手機(年輕使用者可能更頻繁)，所以這意味著一年會有多少手機變成垃圾？該報告指出，光是在2010年，美國就有1.5億手機被丟掉或是回收。
那些舊手機跑去哪里了？這些舊手機──或是所謂的電子廢棄物──通常會被出口到印度或中國等地；在那些地區(qū)有一些回收商會從廢棄手機中提取有價值的材料，但所使用的危險化學(xué)品卻會損害工人健康，并為環(huán)境帶來污染。
據(jù)了解，暴露在手機零組件回收過程中，可能會受到嚴重的神經(jīng)系統(tǒng)損傷，特別是那些受雇于回收商人的童工。
所以也許你的下一個大事業(yè)，是為開發(fā)中市場提供可透過手機使用金融服務(wù)的應(yīng)用程序，或是與處理/回收舊手機有關(guān)的服務(wù)。除此之外，那些還認為手機市場會快速成長的生意人們，最后恐怕只能寄望透過電視購物頻道來賣產(chǎn)品了吧？
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
編譯：Judith Cheng
參考英文原文：Mobile Phones Too Crowded: Nobody Goes There Anymore，by Junko Yoshida
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 多方因素影響，智能手機面板均價持續(xù)下滑
• 低端機種庫存拖累，Q3本土智能手機出貨季衰7.3%
• 廉價策略：聯(lián)發(fā)科一招鮮，吃遍天kSyesmc
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Mobile Phones Too Crowded: Nobody Goes There Anymore
Junko Yoshida, Chief International Correspondent
MADISON, Wis. — If you are developing a new business plan for the next big thing you're about to spring on the burgeoning mobile phone market, forget about it. File it. Mothball that sucker. Seriously. The mobile phone market is saturated.
"More than 3.4 billion people, nearly half the world's population, own at least one mobile phone," says a recently released study by the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington independent research organization. "As of 2010, more than 90 percent of people worldwide were covered by a mobile phone signal."
This all seems good. Everybody's talking or texting or gaming. But the number of mobile subscriptions paints a whole different picture. It already far surpasses the number of phone owners, according to the Worldwatch Institute. Subscription growth is slowing; annual additions peaked in 2010 at 680 million. "The subscription rate began to dip in 2011, and an estimated 424 million new subscriptions will be added in 2013 -- some 250 million fewer than in 2010."
By "mobile subscriptions," the institute means the number of active accounts with access to a mobile network. Many people have multiple mobile devices or use multiple SIM cards in one phone, so it's understandable that the number of mobile subscriptions is higher than the number of people owning phones. But here's the rub. Mobile subscriptions, which are projected to grow from 1 billion in 2000 to more than 6.8 billion by the end of 2013, is unlikely to increase by a whole lot more in the future.
The International Telecommunication Union expects the number of mobile subscriptions to surpass the world's population in early 2014. That's just a few months from now.
The Worldwatch Institute writes in its report, "The future of the mobile phone industry will be less about adding new subscriptions and more about improving existing service." The most common mobile network in the world still uses 2G technology that allows users to talk and send text messages. Nearly 4.7 billion mobile subscriptions use that technology today.
With so many market research companies producing reports on mobile phones, the fascinating feature in this one is the genuine global view. Instead of the usual horse-race market predictions about who's winning or losing, the Worldwatch Institute offers analysis on mobile phones from the social and economic points of view. Think about this:
Perhaps one of the most important side effects of the growing mobile phone industry in the developing world is that financial services have become tethered to mobile phone use in poor regions. Areas with high poverty tend to have mobile subscription rates of 50 out of 100 people, while only 37 percent of people living there have access to a physical bank branch. Financial institutions have begun to leverage the existing infrastructure for mobile phones so that a host of transactions -- such as opening a savings account, paying bills, or transferring money -- can be conducted at local mobile retail stores.
The report also touched on the environmental effects of mobile phones. People in the United States are believed to replace their phones every two years on average. (Young users probably do so more often.) How many phones get chucked every year? According to the report, 150 million phones were thrown away or recycled in the US alone in 2010.
What happens to old phones?
Old phones, along with other so-called e-waste, are often exported to countries like India and China, where the valuable materials contained in them are extracted in ways that endanger the health of the workers and that pollute the local environment with dangerous toxics. Exposure to the phones’ components can have severe neurological effects, especially on the children who are most often the ones involved in this extraction.
Your next big thing could be in developing apps to devlier financial services on mobile phone in the developing world, or it could be delivering services that deal squarely with old phones. Either way, counting on the fast growth of mobile phones is a strategy whose only future might be on late-night infomercials.
責編：Quentin
