根據(jù)美中經(jīng)濟與安全審查委員會公布的一份最新報告顯示，中國對美國的投資“之前難以察覺，但現(xiàn)在卻急劇上升”。
美國應該擔心嗎？這會不會是現(xiàn)代的特洛伊木馬？
我想還不至于。
這份名為《美國經(jīng)濟投資中國分析》的報告提供了有關(guān)中國對美的對外直接投資(FDI)及潛在經(jīng)濟利益的詳細分析。
截至2011年底，中國的累計投資額已成長到300億美元，而2010年底才僅58億美元。如下圖所示，中國的FDI近10年來一直穩(wěn)步上升。中國對美投資主要集中在哪些領(lǐng)域，而我們又可以從這些統(tǒng)計資料中采取何種策略呢？
1982~2010年中國對外直接投資統(tǒng)計。 (單位：10億美元) / 資料來源：UNCTADSTAT http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
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美中委員會的統(tǒng)計資料顯示，中國國有及國家控股企業(yè)主導著中國的對外投資。
該報告指出，北京將其外幣資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)化為硬資產(chǎn)的決定相當明智。這使其建立了主權(quán)財富基金，進而投資美國股市、私人企業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)市場。
中國政府的FDI策略也一直在改變。中國領(lǐng)導人之前鼓勵投資的方向是收購開發(fā)中國家的能源和資源，但現(xiàn)在也鼓勵投資先進國家，包括美國在內(nèi)。
北京的投資目標包括“獲得能源及礦產(chǎn)，以及得到更先進的技術(shù)，以期讓中國超越現(xiàn)有的競爭對手”。此一策略符合中國的十二五產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策。
收購先進技術(shù)反映了中國作為“第二代創(chuàng)新者”的策略，即中國透過發(fā)展制造業(yè)，汲取他人的創(chuàng)新經(jīng)驗，再于國內(nèi)市場重新發(fā)揮。
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁：美國的經(jīng)濟利益何在？
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• 熱情消退，第三季度科技業(yè)并購總價值大幅衰退
• 大有可為，中國人均IT技術(shù)支出僅為美國的3%mgNesmc
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美國的經(jīng)濟利益何在？
然而，中國的投資額在近幾年大幅度增加，但這可不是中國單方面造成的。這份報告指出，經(jīng)濟衰退加上聯(lián)邦收入減少對美國政府帶來的挑戰(zhàn)，都使其努力吸引來自中國的新建投資項目，希望創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會并協(xié)助當?shù)亟?jīng)濟發(fā)展。
另一個事實，是中國的投資都挹注在財力較弱，但擁有可能對中國而言是有用技術(shù)的公司。
我們?nèi)绾魏饬恐袊鴮ν庵苯油顿Y對美國經(jīng)濟的利弊？該報告的評論是“溫和”。過去5年內(nèi)，美國人在中國國有企業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)增加了1~2萬個。其中一部份可能會對美國整體就業(yè)情況有所影響，但美國就業(yè)市場現(xiàn)況也不容小?。
這份報告認為中國的FDI有助于陷入經(jīng)濟困境的公司。主權(quán)財富基金也對美國經(jīng)濟有所助益，有助于鞏固金融市場和促進房市發(fā)展。
該報告還援引了匿名資料來源，指出自2007年以來，東南和西南地區(qū)，以及大湖和遠西地區(qū)受益最大。這些地區(qū)的工業(yè)市場吸引了最多投資，包括石化燃料、化學品、工業(yè)機械和IT產(chǎn)業(yè)等。另外，金融業(yè)也是 中國FDI最主要的接收者。
委員會擔心中國中國企業(yè)對美投資終將獲得決策主導地位。該報告警告道，這些國有企業(yè)反映了北京的訴求－－政府主導著國有企業(yè)的投資，包括鼓勵對何種產(chǎn)業(yè)，以及以何種目的進行投資。
在收購美國公司資產(chǎn)時，國有企業(yè)也較私人企業(yè)更具優(yōu)勢。該報告指出，中國政府的大量金援對于收購美國企業(yè)將具有決定性作用。
這份報告一直提到中國在美國FDI是潛在的特洛伊木馬。確實，經(jīng)濟和能源安全一直是關(guān)注焦點。該報告也談到了中國在三種能源技術(shù)方面的投資。而最后，作者表示，以這些收購技術(shù)而開發(fā)的產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)，都將被轉(zhuǎn)移到中國。
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
編譯： Joy Teng
參考英文原文：Yoshida in China: Beijing's U.S. investments and economic security，by Junko Yoshida
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 夏普據(jù)稱與英特爾及高通磋商投資事宜
• 熱情消退，第三季度科技業(yè)并購總價值大幅衰退
• 大有可為，中國人均IT技術(shù)支出僅為美國的3%mgNesmc
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Yoshida in China: Beijing's U.S. investments and economic security
Junko Yoshida
NEW YORK – Chinese investment in U.S. companies was "hardly noticeable before, but now it is rising sharply," according to a new report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Should we be worried? Is this some sort of Trojan horse?
I wouldn’t go that far.
The report to Congress, “An Analysis of Chinese Investments in the U.S. Economy,” offers a detailed look at China's foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. and the potential economic benefits.
The cumulative value of Chinese investments grew to $30 billion through the end of 2011, compared to $5.8 billion at the end of 2010. As the chart below shows, Chinese FDI here has been rising steadily over the last decade. What sectors is China targeting with its U.S. investments and what if any strategy can we divine from these statistics?
China's Foreign Direct Investments, 1982-2010
(Unit: Billions of dollars)
Source: UNCTADSTAT http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx.
The U.S.-China commission's statistics reveal that China’s state-owned and state-controlled enterprises (SOEs) are dominating China’s outward investments
Beijing “has made a conscious decision to diversify its foreign currency assets into hard assets,” the report explains. This has led to the creation of sovereign wealth funds that make portfolio investments in U.S. equities, private firms and real estate, according to the report.
The Chinese government’s FDI strategy is also shifting. While Chinese leaders previously encouraged investments “almost exclusively toward energy and resource acquisition in developing countries,” it now also encourages “investments in advanced countries,” such as the U.S.
Beijing’s goals for these investments include “securing energy and mineral resources and acquiring advanced technologies in industries where China wishes to leapfrog existing competitors." This strategy falls in line with China’s industrial policy as articulated in Bejing's 12th Five-Year Plan.
The acquisition of advanced technologies reflects China's strategy as a "second-generation innovator" that tailors technologies to its domestic market, then innovates from the ground up through manufacturing advances.
Economic benefits for U.S.?
The sharp increase of Chinese investment here in recent years, however, is not entirely a one-way street. State governments, squeezed by the recession and reduced federal revenue sharing, are "vigorously trying to attract Chinese greenfield investments in the hope of creating jobs and jump-starting local economies," the report correctly notes.
Here’s another salient fact: Chinese investments are flowing here "by the availability of financially weak firms, some of which possess potentially useful technologies for China."
How do we measure the economic benefit of Chinese FDI in the U.S.? Unfortunately, the report describes it as "modest." Employment in Chinese-owned companies in the U.S. increased by 10,000 to 20,000 jobs during the past five years. Some may discount this total relative to overall U.S. employment, but it's nothing to sneeze at given the current U.S. job market.
The report credits Chinese FDI with helping to stabilize some financially troubled firms. Portfolio investments by sovereign wealth funds also have helped the U.S. economy by solidifying the financial system and providing liquidity in property markets.
The report also attempted to determine the regional impact of Chinese investment. Citing a unidentified source, the authors found that since 2007 that the Southeast and Southwest along with the Great Lakes and Far West regions have benefited the most. Industry sectors attracting the most investment included fossil fuels and chemicals, industrial machinery and IT. The financial sector also is a major recipient of Chinese FDI.
The Commission appears worried about the dominant roll of SOEs in U.S. investment decisions. SOEs reflect the demands of Beijing, while the government “behaves like an owner, providing overall direction to SOE investments, including encouragement on where to invest, in what industries and to what ends,” the report warned.
SOEs also have unfair advantages over private firms when competing to purchase U.S. assets. Massive financial support from the central government could “determine market outcomes for purchases of U.S. business,” the report noted.
As for national security concerns, the report goes so far as to characterize Chinese FDI in the U.S. as "a potential Trojan horse." I don’t subscribe to this view. Indeed, economic and energy security appear to be the long-term concerns. For example, the report described Chinese investments in three energy technologies. Eventually, the authors said, production based on the acquired technology was shifted to China.
責編：Quentin
