微軟(Microsoft)寄望最新亮相的操作系統(tǒng)能夠扭轉(zhuǎn)PC產(chǎn)業(yè)。但我們將從一些更有趣的角度來進(jìn)行探討。
微軟的 Windows 8 是否意味著 Wintel 雙寡占世代的終結(jié)？可以說是，也可以說不是。
微軟已經(jīng)推出下一代Windows的重大革新版本和自有的Surface平板電腦。確實(shí)，無論Windows 8和 Surface 目前都是是用 ARM 版 SoC 。然而，盡管面臨這種威脅，但 Wintel 雙寡占市場的威力依然強(qiáng)大。
從ACE談起
還記得ACE嗎？由康柏(Compaq)、微軟、NEC和其它PC領(lǐng)導(dǎo)業(yè)者，共同在1991年定義了一種基于MIPS、執(zhí)行 Windows NT 和 SCO Unix 的臺式計算機(jī)。該系統(tǒng)的主機(jī)板為MIPS RC3230(下圖所示)，被認(rèn)為應(yīng)該是x86的殺手。
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但 ACE PC 的性能并沒有比 Pentium PC好上多少，特別是當(dāng)時英特爾(Intel)更積極地采用最新的半導(dǎo)體制程技術(shù)。而且， ACE 系統(tǒng)確實(shí)有點(diǎn)貴。所以，他們從來沒有起飛過。
今天，大多數(shù)PC廠商都已經(jīng)推出了采用 x86 Win 8的臺式計算機(jī)和筆電系列產(chǎn)品。只有極少數(shù)的公司──包括宏基(Acer)、華碩(Asus)、聯(lián)想(Lenovo)、三星(Samsung)和中興通訊(ZTE)等廠商預(yù)計針對 Windows RT 開發(fā)系統(tǒng)(截至目前為止僅針對平板電腦)，另外還有一些廠商則表示在2013年初以前都還無法就緒。
不過，在Wintel雙寡占領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)越來越多的裂縫了，傳統(tǒng)PC和筆電的銷售正面臨著一個關(guān)鍵時刻。乘著強(qiáng)大的智能手機(jī)和一系列智能裝置而來的 ARM ，目前已然建立起一個強(qiáng)大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，這與上世紀(jì)90年代 ACE 計算機(jī)的情況截然不同。
如果 ARM 的策略奏效，充份運(yùn)用其在平板領(lǐng)域的優(yōu)勢，那么64位的ARM芯片就可能會開始出現(xiàn)在筆電、桌上型計算機(jī)和 服務(wù)器等產(chǎn)品中。未來的發(fā)展誰又會預(yù)料得到呢？到2015年秋天，或許我們會看到首款基于Windows的ARM版服務(wù)器。
這將對半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響，特別是這個產(chǎn)業(yè)中規(guī)模最大的成員──英特爾。當(dāng)面對ARM公司通常售價低至20美元的SoC競爭時，這家x86巨擘很可能無法再讓其客戶端CPU平均銷售價格維持在100美元左右的水準(zhǔn)。
這家業(yè)界最大的微處理器制造商，有可能成為取代臺積電(TSMC)的廠商嗎。會憑借著 FinFET技術(shù)，或是其它任何優(yōu)勢嗎？
另外，伴隨著 Windows 8 的問世，未來整個電子產(chǎn)業(yè)也將出現(xiàn)一些曲折的發(fā)展。以下，我們將提供一些有趣的分析。
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Win RT = Windows (Very) Basic
針對ARM版 SoC 的Windows RT無法執(zhí)行舊版Windows的應(yīng)用程序。微軟提供精簡版的Office，而且拿掉了應(yīng)用最廣的Outlook。
使用者是否都需要Windows的兼容性，并堅持需要執(zhí)行在 x86 架構(gòu)上的 Win 8 ？這正是微軟為何推出 Win RT 的原因。而 Win RT 成效如何，大家都在屏息等待。
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Win Tab 2.0
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Surface并非微軟首次推出的觸控屏幕平板電腦。十年前，曾經(jīng)有過一些沉重且昂貴的Windows for Pen Computing系統(tǒng)，包括這款現(xiàn)在陳列在博物館中，三星的 PenMaster 在內(nèi)。這是一臺iPad嗎？顯然不是。
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第三代可旋轉(zhuǎn)裝置(Convertibles 3.0)
“混合式”這個名詞不只可用在電動車或電動腳踏車上。在 Win 8移動世界中，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了許多可旋轉(zhuǎn)的設(shè)計。這些制造商們再一次跟隨著巨人的腳步。
IBM Convertible (下圖)是一臺可攜式計算機(jī)，還保留著一個類似PC的3.5英吋軟盤和可選的打印機(jī)模塊。4.77MHz的8088 CPU與256KB的RAM，曾經(jīng)在1986年的某一天讓業(yè)界驚嘆。
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Jeff Hawkins創(chuàng)作的 Palm Pilot 和 Treo 最引人注目，其次是Grid Systems Convertible 2260(下圖)概念。這款1992年問世的產(chǎn)品實(shí)際上是一臺盒狀的筆記本電腦或平板電腦，讓不怕背重物的使用者可以隨身攜帶。
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這算創(chuàng)新嗎──Hinges
我真的很怕聽到有人說：“我們?yōu)樾碌?Windows 8 移動PC所做的真正創(chuàng)新之一，就是我們?yōu)樗蛟炝藙?chuàng)新的樞杻(Hinges)。”
這種能夠很容易地扭動的超薄平板電腦，或者說是一臺很會“扭”的筆記本電腦，我們可以說他是有用的，酷的，不容易的，就像聯(lián)想的 Yoga (下圖)運(yùn)作起來似乎特別順暢。但請記住，當(dāng)PC的創(chuàng)新已經(jīng)涉及到 ASIC 的開發(fā)時，難道不能去定義一種新的顯示技術(shù)，或是其它比“hinge”更復(fù)雜一點(diǎn)的東西嗎？
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這算創(chuàng)新嗎──Picking SoC
請饒了PC工程師吧。曾幾何時，英特爾已經(jīng)成為幕后主導(dǎo)，告訴他們哪些芯片該應(yīng)用在什么樣的市場，而且還在系統(tǒng)設(shè)計上提供了一些指導(dǎo)。而其它與Windows系統(tǒng)中硬件要求的相關(guān)細(xì)節(jié)則由微軟來填補(bǔ)。
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這些日子以來，同一批工程師們必須去評估一大堆的ARM版SoC，每一顆都擁有不同的外圍，有著不同的軟件需求，而且必須做出不同的功耗折衷設(shè)計。此外，他們還必須決定是否能應(yīng)用在Windows 8系統(tǒng)和其它的Android設(shè)備上。
這是好消息，讓一些工程師必須再次去做真正的系統(tǒng)級設(shè)計。但也是壞消息，今天留在PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的工程師們，幾乎沒有人知道該怎么做了。
另一消息是，他們不再需要在大量的 ARM SoC 以外還考慮德州儀器(TI)的 OMAP芯片。 TI已然退出平板之爭。
這算創(chuàng)新嗎──Type Cover、Touch Cover
業(yè)界人士稱微軟的產(chǎn)品要比iPad多了一條腿。這是代表微軟產(chǎn)品中的SoC擁有每焦耳更多的GHz性能？不。那么，是新的超級視網(wǎng)膜(super-retina)顯示技術(shù)嗎？也不盡然。
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微軟想出了兩種也能當(dāng)作鍵盤使用的設(shè)計。這是很不錯的主意，它可能勝過許多OEM合作伙伴所提供的產(chǎn)品設(shè)計。不過，你可以只將這類產(chǎn)品設(shè)計任務(wù)交給像Ideo這類工業(yè)設(shè)計公司嗎？
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創(chuàng)新的邊緣──“開始”按鈕在哪里？
一些使用者對于新的PC用戶界面(即之前所稱的 Metro )感到擔(dān)心，因?yàn)樗侨绱四吧?。對初學(xué)者來說，他們通常會問：“開始”按鈕在哪里？
其實(shí)沒必要在意那些細(xì)節(jié)了，Windows長期使用者早都被氣到高血壓，現(xiàn)在只需要有人能解決PC藍(lán)屏的問題，就能讓他們降血壓了。
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Even niches are big
平板是電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的當(dāng)紅炸子雞，即使是廉價的7寸機(jī)種，也預(yù)估2013年將成長到7,000萬臺。就算每臺只賣99美元，它的量也是驚人的龐大。
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所以，我們何時會看到小版的 Surface？
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有趣的All-in-one PC
Windows 8 不僅是有助于PC廠商追尋蘋果的iPad腳步。它也讓微軟遵循iMac。
擁有又大又漂亮的屏幕，而且集所有功能于一身…在英特爾今年九月的年度開發(fā)者論壇上，宏基和聯(lián)想都展示了新機(jī)型。而現(xiàn)在，一些具備更先進(jìn)互動功能的機(jī)種也相繼推出。
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編譯： Joy Teng
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文：Slideshow: 10 things you should know about Win 8，by Rick Merritt
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Slideshow: 10 things you should know about Win 8
Rick Merritt
The debut of Microsoft’s latest mega OS will twist the PC industry into more pretzels than a yoga class. We explore some of the more interesting positions.
SAN JOSE, Calif. – The debut of Windows 8 on Friday (Oct. 26) marks the end of the Wintel duopoly, right? Well, yes and no.
Microsoft is rolling out its next big version of Windows and its own Surface tablet as its first platform. Yes, both Win 8 and Surface come in versions for ARM-based SoCs. But the Wintel duopoly is going strong despite this threat and ones before it.
Remember ACE? Compaq, Microsoft, NEC and a few other PC leaders got together in 1991 to define a MIPS-based desktop that would run Windows NT and SCO Unix. Motherboards from systems like the MIPS RC3230 (below) were supposed to be x86 killers.
Click on image to enlarge.
The ACE PCs didn’t offer much more performance than Pentium PCs of the day, especially after Intel got more aggressive in the use of the latest semiconductor process technology. And the ACE systems were a bit pricey. So they never took off.
Today, most PC makers have already rolled out full portfolios of x86 Win 8 desktops and notebooks. Only a handful of companies—Acer, Asus, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE—are expected to make systems (just tablets, so far) for Windows RT, and those probably will not be ready until early 2013.
Still, there’s a growing fissure in the Wintel duopoly, and it comes a touchy time with traditional desktop and notebook sales sputtering. ARM has built up a powerful ecosystem, riding the smartphone and smart everything juggernaut unlike the ad hoc ACE group of the 1990s.
If ARM gets a foot in the door (to mix metaphors) and uses its leverage in tablets, the 64-bit ARM chips that emerge could start appearing in notebooks, desktops and even servers. Who knows? Come the fall of 2015, we may see the debut of Windows Server for ARM, too.
This would have major repercussions for the semiconductor industry, especially its largest member--Intel. The x86 giant would not be able to sustain its average selling prices that now hover around $100 for client CPUs in the face of ARM SoCs that typically cost about $20.
The industry’s biggest microprocessor maker might become the new and largest alternative to TSMC. FinFETs, anyone?
Meanwhile there are plenty of interesting and awkward twists and turns ahead thanks to the advent of Win 8. We offer some examples in the following pages.
Win RT = Windows (Very) Basic
Click on image to enlarge.
Windows RT, the version of Win 8 for ARM SoCs, does not run legacy Windows apps. Microsoft is supplying a cut-down version of Office for it that lacks one of its most popular apps—Outlook. A mobile system sans the leading email client? Go figure.
Will users demand Windows compatibility and stick with Win 8 for x86? That’s the question Microsoft poses with Win RT. The guys in England are holding their collective breath.
Win Tab 2.0
Click on image to enlarge.
Windows 8 is not the first time Microsoft has fielded touch screen tablets. There were plenty of lovely, albeit heavy and expensive, Windows for Pen Computing systems floating around a decade ago including this gorgeous Samsung PenMaster, now a museum piece. An iPad, it aint.
Convertibles 3.0
Click on image to enlarge.
Hybrids aren't just for cars and bicycles. Convertibles of all sorts are huge in the Win 8 mobile world. Once again, they follow in the footsteps of giants.
The IBM Convertible (above) was a portable PC that also sported a desktop-like 3.5-inch floppy drive and an optional printer module. Its 4.77-MHz 8088 CPU backed up with 256 Kbytes RAM was a screamer for its day in 1986.
Jeff Hawkins, most noted for his creation of the Palm Pilot and Treo, followed up the concept with the Grid Systems Convertible 2260 (below). It actually served as a boxy notebook or tablet for the rugged field service workers of 1992 who could tote the hefty package.
Click on image to enlarge.
Innovating at the margins: Hinges
Click on image to enlarge.
I cringe every time I hear someone say it with a straight face: “One of the things that’s really innovative about our new Windows 8 mobile PC is the hinge we created for it."
We get it. Being able to easily twist a slim tablet into a notebook is useful, cool and not easy to make. The Lenovo Yoga (above) seems particularly supple. But remember when PC innovation involved developing an ASIC, defining a new display technology or something a little more sophisticated than a hinge?
Innovating at the margins—Picking SoCs
Click on image to enlarge.
Pity the poor PC engineer. Once upon a time Intel told him which chips to use for what market and provided some guidelines on the system design. Microsoft filled in the rest of the details with its Windows system hardware requirements.
These days, the same engineers are evaluating a handful of ARM SoCs, each with a different set of peripherals, firmware requirements and ecosystem and power-per-watt tradeoffs. In addition, they have to decide if they can run not only their Windows 8 systems on it, but their Android boxes as well.
The good news is there’s some real system level design needed again. The bad news is, almost no one is left in PC companies today who knows how to do it anymore.
The other news is they no longer have the Texas Instruments OMAP chip above to add to the list of ARM SOCs to consider. TI pulled out of the tablet race.
Innovating at the margins: Type Cover, Touch Cover
Click on image to enlarge.
Pundits hail Microsoft for getting a leg up on Apple’s iPad. More GHz per joule in a Microsoft SoC? Nope. New super-retina display technology. Not included.
Microsoft came up with a couple covers that act as keyboards. Useful idea, and it probably trumps many of the dock-able concepts its OEM partners are offering. Still, isn’t this the kind of thing you commission an industrial design firm like Ideo for?
Innovating at the margins: Where’s the start button?
Some users fear navigating the new PC user interface formerly known as Metro that is part of Windows 8. It’s just so strange and unfamiliar. For starters, Where’s the start button, they ask?
Enter Samsung’s S Manager software that replaces it, lowering blood pressure for veteran Windows users. Now we just need someone to supply a third-party app for the blue screen of death so we can all still have an opportunity to vent our rage.
By the way, we’d be remiss if we didn’t note reviewers say Win 8 is the first upgrade of the venerable OS that runs faster on similarly configured systems as its predecessor.
Even niches are big
We are all about as weary of hearing about tablets as we are the U.S. presidential election. Sorry, but in both cases there’s big money at stake.
In the case of tablets, even those el cheapo seven-inch machines are set to grow to nearly 70 million units in 2013. Even at scalper prices of $99 each that’s a lot of cash.
So when will we see a Surface Petite?
All-in-ones are fun
Windows 8 is not only helping PC makers follow Apple’s iPad. It’s also enabling Microsoft to follow the iMac.
Expect lots of all-in-one machines with big, beautiful screens. Acer and Lenovo models were on display at Intel’s annual developers conference in September. Some fold down into interactive game-playing tables like the…Microsoft Surface PC above.
責(zé)編：Quentin
