中國(guó)有可能出現(xiàn)一個(gè)無(wú)論在規(guī)模、創(chuàng)造力和影響力方面，都能和德州儀器(TI)媲美的公司嗎？ 確實(shí)，今天的中國(guó)還沒(méi)有辦法培育出像TI這樣的公司，而且，在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)機(jī)會(huì)仍然很低。 上周，在深圳舉辦的中國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠(fables) CEO論壇暨頒獎(jiǎng)活動(dòng)中，六位來(lái)自中國(guó)本土無(wú)晶圓廠、EDA供貨商和晶圓制造廠的高階主管，以及清華大學(xué)教授針對(duì)此一主題進(jìn)行了討論。這些業(yè)界資深高階主管們以驚人的坦率態(tài)度承認(rèn)，要在中國(guó)培養(yǎng)出像TI這樣的公司，還有非常長(zhǎng)的一段路要走。 沒(méi)錯(cuò)。中國(guó)正在迅速轉(zhuǎn)換它在電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中所扮演的角色──從制造中心朝設(shè)計(jì)中心轉(zhuǎn)移。最新年度中國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠查結(jié)果顯示，中國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)匦酒O(shè)計(jì)公司采用45nm或以下制程量產(chǎn)的數(shù)字IC年成率達(dá)33.3%。

這六位專(zhuān)家在討論中點(diǎn)出了七大中國(guó)IC設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)為何無(wú)法塑造出像TI這樣規(guī)模公司的主要原因。
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1. 大多數(shù)中國(guó)芯片設(shè)計(jì)公司以“生存下去”為依歸 Dioo Microcircuits Co. (上海) 有限公司總裁兼CEO Jeff Ju表示，“本地人都承受著巨大的生存壓力?！敝袊?guó)本土無(wú)晶圓廠不僅沒(méi)有自己的IP，而且還得從頭開(kāi)始做研發(fā)。就這一點(diǎn)而言，他們無(wú)法想象能有機(jī)會(huì)趕上像TI這樣的大型企業(yè)。有時(shí)候，由于他們將所有力氣都花在日復(fù)一日的例行工作上，因此“中國(guó)本土無(wú)晶圓廠甚至對(duì)于晶圓廠可提供的技術(shù)和IP也不甚熟悉，”Ju說(shuō)。 2. 他們?nèi)狈Χ喈a(chǎn)品線組合 僅有少數(shù)中國(guó)芯片設(shè)計(jì)公司擁有多條產(chǎn)品線。但有更多公司正忙于追尋他們認(rèn)為的最熱門(mén)的市場(chǎng)。而相反地，TI的營(yíng)收來(lái)自許多種不同產(chǎn)品線，包括模擬、嵌入式(微控制器)、無(wú)線業(yè)務(wù)等。 3. 他們不知道如何擴(kuò)展規(guī)模 許多國(guó)際型公司都是以“并購(gòu)和收購(gòu)來(lái)形成更大企業(yè)規(guī)模，”但中國(guó)的芯片設(shè)計(jì)公司并非如此，北京清華大學(xué)教授魏少軍衛(wèi)說(shuō)。他解釋道，中國(guó)第一代小型無(wú)晶圓廠半導(dǎo)體公司的CEO相當(dāng)“眷戀”他們成立的公司，他們很難與其它公司合并?！斑@是一個(gè)很大的問(wèn)題?！? 4. 缺乏開(kāi)放心胸 “與其它公司合并的基本原則，是彼此都要同意，” X'ian Semipower Electronic Technology公司 CEO Luo Yi說(shuō)。一般而言，中國(guó)的高階主管不會(huì)以開(kāi)放的心胸和其它公司就可能產(chǎn)生互惠互利的交易進(jìn)行溝通。他表示，“除了華為，我沒(méi)有看到還有多少中國(guó)的芯片設(shè)計(jì)公司能做到這一點(diǎn)。” 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁(yè)：只會(huì)在“精神上”效法

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 不以營(yíng)收論英雄，2011年全球半導(dǎo)體廠商研發(fā)支出排名
• 本土無(wú)晶圓廠業(yè)者們真正需要的策略
• 無(wú)晶圓廠經(jīng)營(yíng)模式在14nm的雞血下仍將堅(jiān)挺bJCesmc

{pagination} 5. 他們還在找尋屬于自己的細(xì)分市場(chǎng) “要想打敗TI，中國(guó)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走，” Chipone(深圳) CEO Zhang Jin fang說(shuō)。對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)，重點(diǎn)是找到合適的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)，他表示?！耙_定策略市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)困難?！苯刂聊壳埃袊?guó)無(wú)晶圓廠公司通常的狀況是，他們會(huì)找到具有相同機(jī)會(huì)或類(lèi)似的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)，而后，他們便展開(kāi)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。 6. 預(yù)測(cè)往往失準(zhǔn) 中國(guó)的無(wú)晶圓廠半導(dǎo)體公司對(duì)芯片市場(chǎng)的需求預(yù)測(cè)往往相當(dāng)可怕。例如，中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境往往有利于將芯片倒賣(mài)到香港，因而讓業(yè)界有著芯片短缺的印象。如此一來(lái)，產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩就是不可避免的結(jié)果了，而最終這又助長(zhǎng)了價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

CEO圓桌討論：誰(shuí)是下一個(gè)TI
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7. 他們“精神上”效法TI，但實(shí)際做到程度相當(dāng)?shù)?/b> 中 國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠半導(dǎo)體公司都渴望向TI學(xué)習(xí)，但是“TI有些特性，是中國(guó)公司學(xué)不來(lái)的，”X'ian 的Luo說(shuō)?！癟I為未來(lái)的產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)挹注了極大規(guī)模的投資?！币袊?guó)的公司去預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)五到十年的市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)并做出投資是極為困難的，他們也沒(méi)有多余的資金可 以做長(zhǎng)期投資。如果你想拿一個(gè)未成形的市場(chǎng)說(shuō)服他們投入開(kāi)發(fā)，或是讓他們拿出更多錢(qián)來(lái)投資，基本上都不大可能， Luo預(yù)測(cè)，華為或許會(huì)成為中國(guó)的TI。但他也并未真的肯定。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯： Joy Teng 參考英文原文：Why China can’t create a Texas Instruments yet ，by Junko Yoshida， Miya Kong

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 不以營(yíng)收論英雄，2011年全球半導(dǎo)體廠商研發(fā)支出排名
• 本土無(wú)晶圓廠業(yè)者們真正需要的策略
• 無(wú)晶圓廠經(jīng)營(yíng)模式在14nm的雞血下仍將堅(jiān)挺bJCesmc

{pagination} Why China still can’t create the next Texas Instruments Junko Yoshida Will China ever create an enterprise comparable in size, creativity and impact to Texas Instruments? SHENZHEN, China – Will China ever create an enterprise comparable in size, creativity and impact to Texas Instruments? So far, it hasn't come close. For now, there’s not much chance it will. With surprising candor, Chinese executives here acknowledge last week (Sept. 7) that they face a long road ahead before China can give birth to a chip company of TI’s caliber. An industry panel including Chinese fabless CEOs, executives working for EDA vendors and a foundry along with a professor from Tsinghua University, debated the matter during the China Fabless CEO Forum & Awards event, organized by EE Times-China, a sister publication of EE Times. China is rapidly transitioning from its role as a manufacturing center to a design center for the electronics industry. The latest annual China Fabless Survey by EE Times-China revealed that volume production of digital ICs at 45 nm or below by mainland China local fabless companies has grown by 33.3 percent over the previous year. The panel discussion lacked the usual chest-thumping by the Chinese executives. Instead, there was soul searching and a list of seven reasons why China is still better at tea than TI. 1. Many Chinese fabless companies are too overwhelmed to survive. Jeff Ju, president and CEO of Dioo Microcircuits Co. (Shanghai), said, “Local guys are under tremendous pressure to survive.” Local Chinese fabless with no IP of their own are starting their own R&D from scratch. They can’t, at this point, imagine a way to catch up with a behemoth like TI. Sometimes, because they’re consumed by day-to-day operation, “l(fā)ocal Chinese fabless aren’t even familiar with the technologies and IPs that foundries can offer them,” Ju added. 2. Lacking multiple product lines. Few Chinese fabless companies have multiple product lines. Many, too busy chasing what they perceive to be the hottest market of the moment, are one-trick ponies. In contrast, TI has revenue coming from multiple sources ranging from analog to embedded (microcontrollers), wireless and others. 3. They don’t know how to get bigger. Many international companies grow “big to bigger by mergers and acquisitions,” but this isn’t so for Chinese fabless companies, said Shaojun Wei, professor at Tsinghua University (Beijing). The first-generation CEOs of small local fabless companies are “too emotionally attached” to the companies they founded, and they find it very difficult to merge with other companies, he explained. “That’s a big problem here.” They suck at forecasting 4. They’re not open minded. “Fundamental to mergers is to agree with other companies,” said Luo Yi, CEO of X’ian Semipower Electronic Technology Co. (X’ian). Chinese executives, generally speaking, don’t communicate with other companies with an open mind about the possibility of a mutually beneficial deal. “Except for Huawei, I don’t see many Chinese fabless companies that can pull that off.” 5. They’re not identifying the right segments. “To beat TI, China has a long way to go,” said Zhang Jin fang, CEO of Chipone (Shenzhen). The most important thing for us is to find the right segments of the market that we should be in, he added. “To identify that strategic market is hard.” So far, what usually happens is that a whole bunch of China fabless firms spot the same opportunity and go after the same or similar market segments en masse. Then, they all try to beat each other on price. 6. They suck at forecasting. Chinese fabless companies are terrible at forecasting the market demand for their chips. A Chinese market environment that tends to favor the reselling of chips in Hong Kong, for example, creates a broad impression that there’s a chip shortage. The inevitable result is overproduction and an oversupply of chips, thus fueling price competition and a buyer’s market. 7. The "spirit" to match TI is willing, but the substance is weak. China fabless companies aspire toward TI’s example, but “TI has something special Chinese companies can’t touch,” said X’ian Semipower’s CEO Luo. “TI has the big bucks it takes to invest in the future.” It’s hard for most Chinese companies caught up in today’s market forecast to think five to 10 years into the future. Even if they were tempted to invest for the long-term, they simply don’t have the capital to spare. They either need a sure thing — which is impossible when you’re envisioning scenarios that have yet to develop — or a whole lot more money than they have right now. Huawei could be China’s TI someday, Luo predicted. But he’s not betting on it.

責(zé)編：Quentin