近來中國電信市場浮現(xiàn)不利的征兆──當?shù)責o線通信服務(wù)供應商開始發(fā)現(xiàn)，逐漸增加的消費者購買手機補貼已經(jīng)侵蝕其利潤，而且他們提升每用戶平均收入(ARPU)的過程并不順利。 同時，產(chǎn)業(yè)界正睜大眼睛看全球用戶數(shù)最多的移動通信供應商中國移動(China Mobile)，是否會在短時間內(nèi)將iPhone納入合約手機行列。市場傳言，手機芯片大廠高通(Qualcomm)將在今年稍晚推出支持中國3G標準TD-SCDMA的芯片組；但據(jù)了解，中國移動已經(jīng)打算不惜重金在2013年推出支持中國4G標準的TD-LTE手機，因此TD-SCDMA標準iPhone何時上市，仍是未知數(shù)。 中國移動稍早前公布，該公司 2012上半年的扣除利息、賦稅與折舊攤銷營利減少了0.9%，來到1,230億人民幣(約194億美元)。而中國規(guī)模最小的移動通信業(yè)者中國電信 (China Telecom)，也公布其上半年凈利下滑8.3%，由去年的96.2億人民幣(15.2億美元)來到88.1億人民幣(13.9億美元)；同時間營收則 增加14.8%，來到1,380.2億人民幣(218億美元)。 中國電信供應商們利潤與營收在上半年出現(xiàn)下滑，讓財經(jīng)分析師們始料未及；這種情況究竟是什么因素造成的？ 第一個就是中國三大移動通信供應商──中國移動、中國聯(lián)通(China Unicom)與中國電信──之間的價格戰(zhàn)，在過去半年來熱度逐漸升高；此外，給予消費者的手機合約補貼已壓縮到三家的利潤。開始提供iPhone勢必再讓中國電信供應商們增加成本；中國電信日前就明確表示，iPhone所帶來的市場推廣開支，會拖累到利潤表現(xiàn)。 中國移動目前也不提供iPhone，因為Apple沒生產(chǎn)支持TD-SCDMA標準的iPhone；不過，為了與中國聯(lián)通、中國電信競爭，中國移動表示將在下半年提高手機合約補貼。中國移動首席財務(wù)官薛濤海表示，該公司今年上半年的手機補貼總金額為120億人民幣(19億美元)，不過該公司全年度補貼預算將由原先的210億人民幣(33.2億美元)增加至260億人民幣(41億美元)。 各家電信供應商爭相提供手機補貼的動機，就是希望盡可能吸引更多的高階客戶，好讓他們在服務(wù)項目上花更多錢。那么，目前在中國到底有多少3G用戶？ 中國電信表示，該公司截至今年6月的行動用戶總數(shù)為1.4418億，其中3G用戶為5,096萬人，占據(jù)35%。中國聯(lián)通則表示，其3G用戶占據(jù)總用戶數(shù)的 比例略高于25%。至于中國移動，該公司號稱其移動通信用戶總數(shù)為6.8億，其中有10%是高資費3G用戶；也就是說，中國移動大多數(shù)用戶還是使用2G網(wǎng)路，上半年的ARPU約為67元人民幣(11美元)。 中國移動會找到說服Apple生產(chǎn)TD-SCDMA標準iPhone的方法嗎？有人認為會，因為高通已經(jīng)準備好在今年稍晚推出TD-SCDMA手機芯片組；但也可能不會，因為有業(yè)界消息指出，對計劃在2013年推出TD-LTE手機的中國移動來說，那并不是最有利的策略。 高通的競爭對手Marvell正將資源投注在針對中國市場的TD-LTE調(diào)制解調(diào)器市場，該公司手機芯片產(chǎn)品副總裁Ivan Lee最近接受EETimes美國版編輯訪問時透露，中國移動已經(jīng)提出其TD-LTE產(chǎn)品的規(guī)格需求，該手機產(chǎn)品將支持中國境內(nèi)的TD-SCDMA與 GSM雙頻，也就是需要TD-LTE調(diào)制解調(diào)器芯片能在4G與FDD網(wǎng)絡(luò)漫游的能力，而非3G與WCDMA。 Ivan Lee表示：“我們將在2012年底推出TD-LTE調(diào)制解調(diào)器芯片，新組件將會符合中國移動開出的所有規(guī)格需求。” 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文： Yoshida in China: Does China Mobile need iPhone?，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Yoshida in China: Does China Mobile need iPhone? Junko Yoshida China’s telecom market is showing signs of distress. Wireless carriers in China are beginning to see their growing handset subsidies to customers eating into profits, while they struggle to increase their ARPU (average revenue per user). In parallel, the world is watching intently if China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier based on number of subscribers, might soon start carrying Apple’s iPhones. Qualcomm is rumored to be unveiling a TD-SCDMA (China’s home-grown 3G standard) chipset later this year. The timing for the emergence of a TD-SCDMA-based iPhone, however, is controversial, since China Mobile is reportedly planning to go whole hog with the rollout of TD-LTE (4G) handsets in 2013. Last week, China Mobile posted a 0.9 percent drop in first-half earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to 123 billion yuan ($19.4 billion). On Wednesday (Aug. 22nd), China Telecom, the smallest wireless operator in China, posted an 8.3 percent drop in first-half net profit. Its first-half net profit was 8.81 billion yuan ($1.39 billion), down from 9.62 billion yuan ($1.52 billion) a year earlier. Revenue rose 14.8 percent to 138.02 billion yuan ($21.8 billion) in the period. A decline in the telecoms’ profits and earnings in China isn’t exactly what financial analysts were expecting in the first half of the year. What factors are contributing to this disturbing trend? First, price competition among China’s wireless operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom -- has been heating up over the last six months. Moreover, handset subsidies have been pressuring all three carriers' ARPU. Serving iPhones does incur costs for Chinese carriers. China Telecom Wednesday explicitly said in a statement that marketing expenses for the iPhone would weigh on profitability. China Mobile at this point does not carry iPhones, because Apple does not make iPhones with TD-SCDMA, a standard mandated by China Mobile. Nonetheless, in order to compete with China Unicom and China Telecom, China Mobile said it would increase its handset subsidies in the second half of the year. More specifically, China Mobile’s CFO Xue Taohai said it spent 12 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) on handset subsidies in the first half of the year, but that it would raise full-year subsidies to 26 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) from an initial plan for 21 billion yuan ($3.32 billion). The goal everyone is gunning for is to attract as many higher-end customers as possible who will spend more money on services. Battle for 3G subscribers So, exactly, how many mobile users in China have already signed for 3G? China Telecom Wednesday said it has 144.18 million mobile subscribers as of June, including 50.96 million 3G subscribers. That means 35 percent of its subscribers are already using 3G. China Unicom says that a little over 25 percent of its subscribers have 3G contracts. On the other hand, China Mobile which claims to have more than 680 million mobile phone users only has 10 percent of its subscribers using higher-revenue, 3G technology. In other words, most of China Mobile’s subscribers are using 2G, contributing to 4.3 percent slide in the company’s ARPU in the first half of the year to 67 yuan ($11). iPhone factor Will China Mobile find a way to persuade Apple to make TD-SCDMA-compatible iPhones? Some say yes, as Qualcomm is reportedly getting ready with TD-SCDMA chipset slated for launch later this year. Or maybe not. A few observers say it may not be in the best interest of China Mobile, which plans to promote TD-LTE handsets in 2013. Marvell Technology, a competitor to Qualcomm, is betting the farm on a TD-LTE modem for the Chinese market. In a recent interview with EE Times, Ivan Lee, vice president of mobile products at Marvell said that China Mobile recently announced the requirements for their TD-LTE. The world’s largest mobile operator’s specification says it needs to be able to operate on TD-SCDMA and GSM inside China. It requires the TD-LTE modem to offer roaming capability on 4G and FDD, not to mention 3G and WCDMA. During the interview, Lee said, “We’ll have a TD-LTE modem by the end of 2012, which meets all the requirements set forth by China Mobile.”