上周，中國大陸和臺灣簽了第一份投資保障協(xié)議，為強(qiáng)化臺灣和大陸的發(fā)展鋪平了道路。 該協(xié)議旨在解決為在中國進(jìn)行投資的臺商解決商業(yè)糾紛，以及當(dāng)臺商遭到拘押時如何了解自己的權(quán)益。 這是個重要的協(xié)議嗎？答案是肯定的。 這項協(xié)議代表著兩方政府進(jìn)行長期貿(mào)易談判過程中的一項重大進(jìn)展。我們都知道，雖然大陸是臺灣最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，但雙方在一些立場上仍然存在分歧。而像這樣的協(xié)議，則能讓雙方在更具前瞻性的軌道上發(fā)展未來關(guān)系。 此舉也可能導(dǎo)致更多的合并與收購(M&A)。一些大陸企業(yè)已經(jīng)開始從臺灣公司手中買下IP，或是試著尋求更多專有的制造技術(shù)了。 想象一下，一旦與臺灣聯(lián)手，中國大陸的電子產(chǎn)業(yè)將會變得多么強(qiáng)大。 上個月，中國的進(jìn)出口成長速度明顯放緩，不只在中國，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都出現(xiàn)警訊。 中國會持續(xù)讓人民幣貶值嗎？ 另一項資料──中國的貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計數(shù)字──也證實了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的情況。 今年七月份，中國出口成長率從六月的11.3%降至僅1%，創(chuàng)下六個月以來的新低。進(jìn)口部份六月份成長率為6.3%，七月份為4.7%。另外，貿(mào)易順差則下降至251億美元。 這些數(shù)字讓中國出現(xiàn)了呼吁中國政府采取刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)成長措施的聲音，包括讓人民幣進(jìn)一步貶值，以幫助支撐中國出口業(yè)務(wù)。 上周稍早，中國一個頗具影響力的報紙《中國證券報》(China Securities Journal)報導(dǎo)，為因應(yīng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化，中國需采取弱勢貨幣政策。 《金融時報》(Financial Times)則認(rèn)為這是“幾個月以來中國外匯市場最強(qiáng)的訊號之一：讓人民幣兌美元匯率持續(xù)下跌。”

過去兩年來人民幣兌美元走勢。
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過去12個月內(nèi)人民幣兌美元波動。
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當(dāng)然，幾乎可以肯定的一件事，就是若中國政府讓人民幣兌美元急劇貶值，美國和中國之間的一些其他問題也可能因此再度升溫。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯： Joy Teng 參考英文原文：Yoshida in China: Taiwan-China superpower?，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Yoshida in China: Taiwan-China superpower? Junko Yoshida Expect further investment from China to Taiwan. Fully energized cross-strait business deals between Taiwanese and Chinese companies will be emerging on the horizon. China and Taiwan signed Thursday (August 9th) their first investor-protection agreement – paving a way to strengthen Taiwan’s relationship with China. The agreement is designed to address Taiwan’s concerns about resolving business disputes in China, and questions about their rights if detained there. Is this a big deal? The answer is a resounding yes. This signals an important progress in long-running trade talks between the two governments. We all know that while China is Taiwan’s biggest trade partner, China is also Taiwan’s political adversary. An agreement like this, however, can put the relationship on a more forward-looking trajectory. This could also lead to more M&A. Chinese companies are already looking to buy intellectual property and gain manufacturing knowhow from Taiwan companies. Once teamed up with Taiwanese, imagine how powerful Chinese vendors in the electronics industry could become. Chinese export and import growth slowed markedly last month, flashing warning signals in both the domestic and the global economy. Will Beijing let renminbi fall? Yet another data point emerged to confirm China’s sluggish economy: China’s trade figures. China’s exports rose 1 per cent year on year in July, a six-month low and down from an 11.3 per cent pace in June. Imports were up 4.7 per cent, dipping from June’s 6.3 per cent pace. China was left with a $25.1bn surplus, a two-month low. These developments intensify calls in China for Beijing to take measures to stimulate growth, and to let the Renminbi depreciate further to help prop up China’s export . Earlier this week, the China Securities Journal, an influential state newspaper, wrote that China needed a weaker currency to compensate for deterioration in the global economy. The Financial Times sees this “one of the strongest signals yet that China is willing to do what forex markets have been signaling for months: let the Yuan fall against the US dollar.” Renminbi appreciates against U.S. dollars over the last two years Fluctuating renminbi against U.S. dollars over the last 12 months Of course, it’s almost certain that if Beijing let the renminbi fall more steeply against the dollar, a political dispute between the U.S. and China wouldn’t come far behind.