身為一家年?duì)I收達(dá)430億美元的全球公司總裁兼CEO，John Chambers經(jīng)常與其它高科技業(yè)界主管們共同談?wù)摬⒔粨Q意見(jiàn)，期望更能掌握全球經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境動(dòng)向及其對(duì)于公司業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展的潛在沖擊。 而今，對(duì)于最近從同事、業(yè)務(wù)往來(lái)的客戶及其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手所聽(tīng)到的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，思科公司總裁John Chambers感到并不十分樂(lè)觀。對(duì)于投資人、客戶、政府官員以及任何可能對(duì)他的意見(jiàn)感興趣的人，Chamber總是直言不諱地說(shuō)出他的想法。 然而，就在思科發(fā)布最新一期的財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)字后，John Chambers直率的談話卻對(duì)思科的股市表現(xiàn)造成重大影響。盡管思科公司在周三還宣布業(yè)績(jī)成長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，但該公司的股價(jià)在周四早盤(pán)交易中已下跌了約9%。 很顯然地，Chamber的話讓投資人們感到印象深刻，但他們對(duì)于思科上季凈收入成長(zhǎng)20%或年?duì)I收成長(zhǎng)7%的表現(xiàn)并不滿意。股東們更關(guān)切的是該公司的經(jīng)濟(jì) 前景疲軟──因?yàn)?，這不但反映出思科及其它高科技公司能為投資人帶來(lái)什么樣的期待，同時(shí)也可看出這對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的其它產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域又意味著什么。 在思科與分析師的電話會(huì)議中，從Chambers的評(píng)論就可看出為何市場(chǎng)已變得如此緊張。思科公司CEO說(shuō)他和其它高科技業(yè)界主管們都十分擔(dān)心歐州的情況、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)情勢(shì)持續(xù)不確定性、公共支出削減，以及企業(yè)不愿投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施及其它資本計(jì)劃等問(wèn)題。Chambers進(jìn)一步表示： “我們?nèi)蕴幱谌蚪?jīng)濟(jì)的不確定環(huán)境中，我們不斷看到過(guò)去幾季來(lái)我們所討論的一些關(guān)注領(lǐng)域受到?jīng)_擊。我們看到銷售周期變得越來(lái)越長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)也出現(xiàn)更多較小規(guī)模的交易。從一個(gè)CEO的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，目前我們面對(duì)的正是一個(gè)更加更謹(jǐn)慎投資以及不確定的環(huán)境。” “當(dāng)我和業(yè)界其它主管們談?wù)摃r(shí)──對(duì)于我們從全球企業(yè)客戶所了解到的一切，大家?guī)缀醵急С种瑯拥目捶ā５覀儾⒉徽J(rèn)為事情會(huì)變得更糟糕，而是相信一切正在穩(wěn)定的改善中，因而對(duì)于環(huán)境的不確定性抱持謹(jǐn)慎和觀察環(huán)境變化的想法。我們真正擔(dān)心的是看到一種趨勢(shì)出現(xiàn)──當(dāng)它可能成為一個(gè)更大問(wèn)題的征兆時(shí)?！? “我覺(jué)得現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該將它歸類為不確定性，同時(shí)應(yīng)該更加關(guān)注在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與歐洲較確定的部份，其次是關(guān)注可對(duì)其業(yè)務(wù)造成重大影響的政府政策。因此，我認(rèn)為以不確定性來(lái)表達(dá)是一種較理想的方式。我們當(dāng)然不喜歡目前企業(yè)IT支出的這種趨勢(shì)。” Chambers先前就曾提出他的疑慮。他指出許多高科技社群都十分關(guān)注歐洲動(dòng)向，也提到在公共部門(mén)開(kāi)支的削減、謹(jǐn)慎IT投資等問(wèn)題。 “正如我們預(yù)期的，每一個(gè)問(wèn)題都已成為一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)，其中還有幾個(gè)問(wèn)題──包括歐洲與客戶保守主義──變得更嚴(yán)重了！”他說(shuō)。 如果這些問(wèn)題只影響到思科一家公司，或者能被迅速解決，那么還不算太嚴(yán)重。但事實(shí)情況并非如此。事實(shí)上，席卷整個(gè)希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙與西班牙的歐洲金融風(fēng)暴使企業(yè)對(duì)于支出謹(jǐn)慎保守的情況更嚴(yán)重。由于希臘目前仍努力地建立新政府，歐元單一貨幣區(qū)也汲汲可危，這讓更多企業(yè)將會(huì)擔(dān)心對(duì)其營(yíng)運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)帶來(lái)滾雪球效應(yīng)，因此更加地削減資本支出。 到目前為止，這一切對(duì)于消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響可說(shuō)是微乎其微。我希望，在非歐元區(qū)國(guó)家以及在一些較穩(wěn)定的歐洲國(guó)家中的消費(fèi)者無(wú)需過(guò)度解讀希臘的事件。畢竟，歐盟無(wú)法解決希臘漂浮不定的政治問(wèn)題當(dāng)然會(huì)讓大家更加關(guān)注于其間的權(quán)力之爭(zhēng)，而忽略在思科的問(wèn)題。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Cisco: Global Uncertainty Worries High-Tech，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Cisco: Global Uncertainty Worries High-Tech Bolaji Ojo As chairman and CEO of a $43 billion global company, John Chambers talks regularly with other high-tech executives to gain a better view of the world economic environment and the potential impact of it on their businesses. Right now, the top boss at Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) doesn't very much like what he is hearing from colleagues, business customers, and rivals. Chambers is also not hesitant to speak his mind about this to investors, customers, government officials, and anyone else who might be interested in his opinion. The CEO's blunt talk, however, is contributing to the pounding Cisco is taking on the equity market one day after announcing its latest quarter results. Today, Cisco's shares have fallen about 9 percent in early trading, despite the strong results announced by the company on Wednesday. Investors, it appears, were impressed but not satisfied with either the 20 percent increase in Cisco's net income for the fiscal third quarter ended April 28, or the 7 percent jump in revenue from the comparable year-ago period. Shareholders were more focused on the company's weak financial outlook, itself a reflection both of what they can expect from Cisco and other high-tech companies, as well as what this means for other segments of the global economy. A review of Chambers's comments during the company's conference call with analysts demonstrates why the market became nervous. The Cisco CEO said he and other high-tech executives are concerned about conditions in Europe, persistent uncertainty in global economic conditions, cutbacks in public spending, and the reluctance of enterprises to write big checks for infrastructure and other capital projects. Chambers further said: We are still in an uncertain environment economically and in global perspective. We continue to see the impact of the areas of concern we have discussed for the last few quarters. We are seeing larger -- longer sales cycles, more sign-off and smaller deal size. Again, this is in terms of a more cautious environment and uncertainty from a CEO perspective. When I talk to my peers in the industry -- make no mistake, I've been doing that; we can almost finish each other's sentences on what we're seeing around the globe from the enterprise customers. Again, not a view that things are turning down, but just very steady improvement and an uncertain and cautious wait-and-see type of environment from that perspective. We do worry when you see a trend occurring that it can be an indication of a bigger issue. I think right now I'd classify it as uncertainty and looking to see more certainty on the global economy and in Europe and secondly, more certainty in terms of government policies that can have major impacts on their business. So it's a nice way of saying that we're not sure. We sure don't like the trend in the enterprise IT spending. Chambers had documented his concerns previously. He identified Europe as a nagging concern for many in the high-tech community but also mentioned the cuts in public sector spending, "conservative IT" spending, and undefined issues with India. "Each of these has proven to be a challenge as we anticipated, and several -- Europe and customer conservatism -- have gotten worse," he said. If only Cisco alone was being affected by these problems or that they were being quickly resolved. That's not the case. In fact, the fiscal mess in Europe that has engulfed Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain has fueled the spending conservatism at the enterprise level referenced by Chambers. With Greece still struggling to set up a new government and now on the brink of crashing out of the euro currency zone, more businesses will worry about the snowballing effects on their operations and cut back on capital expenses. So far, the impact of all this on the consumer electronics sector has been minimal. I expect consumers in non-euro countries and even in a few stable euro countries to stay detached from events in Greece. But the failure of the European Union to end the image of a continent adrift is certainly a cause for concern in more corner offices than just those at Cisco.