市場研究機(jī)構(gòu) IHS iSuppli 日前發(fā)布更新版的 2012年全球半導(dǎo)體市場成長率預(yù)測，表示今年該市場將成長3.3%，營收規(guī)模3,232億美元；該機(jī)構(gòu)去年11月的預(yù)測數(shù)字，是認(rèn)為2012年全球半導(dǎo)體市場成長率為3.2%，營收規(guī)模3,182億美元。 IHS iSuppli 指出，2012年半導(dǎo)體市場成長速度將趨緩，主要是因?yàn)槿蚓皻馇熬安幻?，以及半?dǎo)體庫存情況變動(dòng)緩慢。不過該機(jī)構(gòu)也表示，如果美國與世界其它區(qū)域的景氣在2013年復(fù)蘇，整體情況將會(huì)有大幅度改善；預(yù)期在 2013年至2015年間，整體半導(dǎo)體市場成長率可在6.6%~7.9%之間，市場營收規(guī)模在 2015年可達(dá)3,977億美元左右。 最新版的IHS iSuppli 半導(dǎo)體市場 2012年成長率預(yù)測數(shù)字，大致上與其它市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)看法相符，大部分是較低的個(gè)位數(shù)字；例如Gartner預(yù)測2012年半導(dǎo)體市場成長率為2.2%，世界半導(dǎo)體貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)組織(WSTS) 的預(yù)測數(shù)字則為2.6%。 也有分析師對(duì)于 2012年芯片市場前景較為樂觀，例如Future Horizons 認(rèn)為該市場2012年將成長8%，IC Insights預(yù)測成長率為7%，資深芯片市場分析師Mike Cowan的預(yù)測數(shù)字則為5.9%；另一位來自International Business Strategies 的分析師Handel Jones則預(yù)期，芯片市場將在2012年成長6~7%之后，于2013年再度走下坡。

IHS iSuppli對(duì)2010年~2015年全球半導(dǎo)體市場營收預(yù)測fsZesmc

“芯片市場2011年與2012年的慘淡表現(xiàn)，都可歸咎于半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)無法控制的、外部的景氣情況；包括曖昧不明的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)，以及包括美國、歐洲、日本與中國等全球主要市場所遭遇的困境?！盜HS iSuppli半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)分析師Len Jelinek表示，由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)無法提供有力的支持，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)因此受到壓力。 消費(fèi)者支出也是一個(gè)影響芯片市場成長率的關(guān)鍵，IHS iSuppli表示，雖然在 2011年底的耶誕采購季，消費(fèi)者買氣成功降低了電子產(chǎn)品等內(nèi)含半導(dǎo)體組件的裝置之庫存水準(zhǔn)，其力道卻不足以激活可重振芯片需求的庫存回補(bǔ)效應(yīng)。 本文下一頁：半導(dǎo)體需求Q2前恐維持低迷 本文授權(quán)編譯自EETIMES，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 縱觀全球半導(dǎo)體市場，直面中國電子業(yè)“嚴(yán)冬”
• 2011年全球半導(dǎo)體市場采購大戶TOP10排名fsZesmc

{pagination} IHS iSuppli指出，芯片廠商雖在 2011年第三季刻意降低產(chǎn)能利用率，但程度還不夠讓庫存水準(zhǔn)下滑至可引發(fā)額外訂單效應(yīng)，或是提升產(chǎn)能利用率；也因?yàn)槿绱?，電子廠商對(duì)半導(dǎo)體組件需求在 2012年第二季之前恐將維持低迷。 而也因?yàn)檎w半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)能利用率在 2012年中以前難復(fù)蘇，IDM大廠恐怕連維持一些表現(xiàn)不佳生產(chǎn)據(jù)點(diǎn)的營運(yùn)都會(huì)遭遇前所未有的壓力；IHS iSuppli預(yù)期，大多數(shù)提升產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部效率的資本支出，可能會(huì)推遲至2013年。 以芯片類別來看，IHS iSuppli指出內(nèi)存市場將再度于2012年經(jīng)歷黑暗期，估計(jì)年度DRAM銷售額將繼2011年衰退26.8%之后，再度衰退16.1%； NAND閃存市場2012年表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)稍遜于去年，主要因?yàn)楦鲝S商為因應(yīng)智能手機(jī)、平板裝置等產(chǎn)品對(duì)內(nèi)存大量需求而增加的產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)到位。 受平板裝置、智能手機(jī)與工業(yè)用產(chǎn)品需求帶動(dòng)，無線通訊芯片將會(huì)是 2012年半導(dǎo)體市場成長主要推手；不過IHS iSuppli表示，振興半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)鍵，還是來自核心PC與PC外圍市場的顯著需求成長。 編譯：Judith Cheng 本文授權(quán)編譯自EETIMES，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！ 參考原文： IHS forecasts 3.3% chip growth in 2012，by Dylan McGrath

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 縱觀全球半導(dǎo)體市場，直面中國電子業(yè)“嚴(yán)冬”
• 2011年全球半導(dǎo)體市場采購大戶TOP10排名fsZesmc

{pagination} IHS forecasts 3.3% chip growth in 2012 Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Market research firm IHS iSuppli Tuesday (Jan. 31) revised its 2012 semiconductor market forecast upward slightly, saying it now expects chip sales to grow 3.3 percent this year to reach $323.2 billion. The forecast is a small revision from one issued last November, when IHS projected that chip sales would grow 3.2 percent this year to reach $318.2 billion. Nevertheless, IHS noted that the projected growth for the year is sluggish, citing uncertain global economic prospects and slow moving semiconductor inventory. But IHS said the overall picture could brighten considerably if the U.S. and the rest of the world recover in 2013. Under such a scenario, growth from 2013 to 2015 would average between a 6.6 and 7.9 percent, with total semiconductor revenue by 2015 rising to some $397.7 billion, IHS said. IHS' 2012 semiconductor market forecast is generally consistent with that of other market research firms, who for the most part have projected low single-digit growth for 2012. Gartner Inc., for example, is currently predicting 2.2 percent growth for the year, while the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization projects 2.6 percent growth. Other analysts are slightly more bullish on the prospects for 2012 chip revenue growth. Future Horizons Ltd. is currently projecting 8 percent growth for the year, while IC Insights Inc. pegs growth at about 7 percent and veteran chip analyst Mike Cowan projects 5.9 percent growth. Handel Jones of International Business Strategies forecasts the chip market contracting in 2013 after a 6 to 7 percent rise in 2012. "Much of the weak performance in both 2011 and this year can be attributed to external circumstances over which the semiconductor industry has no control—the ambiguous state of the global economy, along with assorted troubles in the world’s major markets of the United States, Europe, Japan and China," said Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst of semiconductor manufacturing research at IHS, in a statement. The semiconductor business is coming under pressure because the world economy is not in a strong enough position to drive growth, Jelinek said. Consumer spending, another key factor for the chip market, lowered the level of inventory of electronic devices and other items incorporating semiconductors during the 2011 holiday season, but not enough re-energize chip demand to replenish stockpiles, IHS said. Chip firms deliberately cut their production run rates in the third quarter of last year, but not enough to bring inventory levels down to levels that would have fired up additional orders and increased factory run rates, the firm said. As a result, semiconductor demand for manufacturers will remain depressed until the second quarter of 2012, according to IHS. Because factory utilization will not recover until the middle of 2012, IDMs will experience even greater stress to simply maintain the viability of underperforming factories, IHS predicted. Most capital expenditures to boost efficiency within the industry likely will be pushed out to 2013, IHS said. Memory chips will experience the most hardship once again in 2012, IHS predicted. DRAM sales are expected to decline 16.1 percent this year after dropping 26.8 percent in 2011, the first said. NAND flash will see a less stellar year in 2012 compared to 2011 because of additional capacity coming on to meet a surge of demand for the memory in devices like mobile handsets and media tablets, IHS said. Wireless communication chips will be a strong market driver this year, spurred by media tablets, smartphones and industrial electronics, IHS said. But for the semiconductor industry to revitalize, it is crucial that the core PC and peripheral markets experience a significant increase in demand, IHS said