根據(jù)種種跡象顯示，對于電子產(chǎn)業(yè)以及全球經(jīng)濟下的大部份廠商而言，2012年將會是充滿艱辛與挑戰(zhàn)的一年。歐洲的財務(wù)與債務(wù)問題正逐漸蔓延，情況絲毫未見改善。有關(guān)西班牙和法國借貸成本飆升至10年期新高記錄的消息，更為意大利帶來諸多問題。臨危授命的意大利新任總理Mario Monti表示，意大利當前正面臨緊急局面，甚至將可能影響歐盟的未來。 在電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中，大部份的主要OEM與組件供貨商們均唱衰2012年前景。因此，有人因而斷言投資人對于當前險峻的環(huán)境感到憂心，并開始為自己的錢尋找一個安全的避風港。但這種觀點可能只有某部份是正確的。事實上，我最近在紐約參加的一場法說會上，投資人的關(guān)注焦點就大不相同。這些與會者的眼光放得更遠、積極地討論他們認為不久的將來可望主導經(jīng)濟的各種議題、平臺、公司與策略等。 討論的主題包括未來的技術(shù)平臺、Facebook、Google、零售業(yè)的變化、云端運算，以及教育機構(gòu)“是否充份地調(diào)整以滿足未來學生的個人化需求？”與會者還討論了一些技術(shù)問題，如Google Android操作系統(tǒng)的未來、“微軟是否能夠更成功地滲透于市場？”，以及“關(guān)于不同的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，投資人應(yīng)該了解什么？” 在一場有關(guān)Google與Facebook競爭態(tài)勢的會議中，許多與會者剖析了兩家公司的未來，并加入兩大平臺將面臨的多項機會與挑戰(zhàn)。他們指出，F(xiàn)acebook無法決定是否成為一個私有或公開平臺的內(nèi)在緊張將持續(xù)為其帶來困擾，最后可能使其逐漸失去原有的酷炫風格。 此外，批評者質(zhì)疑廠商們可會樂意出讓其品牌的專有權(quán)給Facebook。舉例來說，一家名為WidgeMaker的公司，它會愿意以www.facebook.com/widgetsmaker的網(wǎng)址出現(xiàn)在網(wǎng)際空間嗎？或者他們將強烈反對這種方式，而要求在Facebook上以www.widgetsmaker.com/facebook的網(wǎng)址出現(xiàn)？ 與會者們還投票表決未來五年內(nèi)會把錢投資在哪一家公司？與會者的抉擇大致上有四種：第一，僅Facebook；其次，僅Google；第三，同時投資Facebook與Google兩家公司；最后，二家公司皆否。其結(jié)果相當令人意外。在場超過四十多人中，只有極少數(shù)的幾個人在未來五年內(nèi)只投資于其中任一家公司，而大約有半數(shù)的人都選擇了同時投資兩家公司。另一半的人則考慮并尋找其它新的投資標的。 根據(jù)一些與會者表示，Google面臨的問題就是它的搜尋引擎與技術(shù)的進展沖突。Google公司的搜尋引擎是其透過廣告贊助取得主要營收的來源──在Google首先推出搜尋引擎之際，當時的網(wǎng)際空間仍十分混亂，而該公司透過為用戶挖掘信息在網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)建立起某種秩序，并取得了可觀的財富。然而，隨著智能手機與平板電腦的應(yīng)用程序以及像Facebook這樣的社群媒體興起──這些可沒法再輕易地進行搜尋－－，因而讓Google似乎踢到了鐵板?，F(xiàn)在，在網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)的藩籬之外，存在著太多Google公司找不到也無法進行歸納與分類的資料。如同一位與會者所說的，如果應(yīng)用程序凌駕網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)之上，那么Google也就沒戲唱了。但如果Google能力求轉(zhuǎn)型，就不至于發(fā)生這種情景。 所有的這一切都讓我不禁思考未來，特別是接下來的五年。以下是在這次會議中的一些其它問題。什么樣的平臺將在2016年以前主導技術(shù)市場？哪些公司將成為“時代精神”(Zeitgeist，例如當今的蘋果公司)？Facebook和Google仍將主導市場嗎？電信服務(wù)供貨商仍然能夠控制用戶的寬頻使用嗎？接下來還會出現(xiàn)類似智能手機這種必備的什么新產(chǎn)品嗎？對于企業(yè)IT客戶以及設(shè)備與咨詢服務(wù)供貨商而言，什么才是最重要的？最重要的，在2011/2012年IPO的公司中，有哪些可證明是一家具有良好經(jīng)營模式的好公司？而些公司卻平凡且不起眼？ 想想看就在五年前，iPhone在稱霸智能手機市場前才公開亮相，平板電腦領(lǐng)域因iPad尚未誕生而未能進入主流市場，還有Android只不過是一個跟外星人有關(guān)的字詞。因此，讓我們共同預(yù)測接下來的五年吧！讓我知道你認為五年后的電子產(chǎn)業(yè)與技術(shù)格局大概是怎么樣的？我們可能會熱烈討論什么新產(chǎn)品呢？ 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：The Next Five Years，by Bolaji Ojo

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 論道市場新應(yīng)用，第十三屆高交會電子展揭示電子產(chǎn)業(yè)革命
• 工業(yè)電子半導體廠商排名：TI霸主難撼動
• 人工成本高漲，工業(yè)機器人市場呼之欲出CULesmc

{pagination} The Next Five Years Bolaji Ojo By all indications, 2012 will be a tough year for the electronics industry and most other players in the global economy. Rather than improving, the fiscal and debt troubles in Europe seem to be spreading. The news that borrowing costs for Spain and France have soared to 10-year highs adds to problems in Italy where newly-appointed premier Mario Monti has declared the nation is facing an emergency. In the electronics industry, most of the leading OEMs and component suppliers have issued dire warnings about their outlooks for 2012. (See: Infineon: Cooling Off for 2012and Siemens Reports Growth but Expects Slower 2012.) One would safely assume investors are fretting and seeking safe havens for their money in this environment, but that view would be only partially correct. In fact, the focus of an investment conference I attended recently in New York couldn't be more different. Instead, the participants were looking farther out and discussing issues, platforms, companies, and strategies that they believe will dominate the economy in the near future. The subjects discussed -- it was a private meeting and I can't disclose names or other details -- included the future of technology platforms (think Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook , and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)), retail metamorphosis, the cloud, and whether educational institutions would "adjust enough to meet the hyper personalized demands of prospective students or see an acceleration of routing around institutions." Participants also discussed technology issues such as the future of Google's Android operating system and whether Microsoft would be "able to penetrate more successfully," and "what investors should know about the various ecosystems." At a session I attended on the competitive landscape involving Google and Facebook, many participants (and these, believe me, are either authorities on the field or investors) dissected the future of the two companies and weighed in on the numerous challenges as well as opportunities facing the two platforms. (Another session focused on Amazon versus Apple.) Facebook, they said, will continue to be troubled by the tension inherent in its inability to decide whether it wants to be a "private or public platform" and the possible eventual wearing off of its "cool" factor. Also, critics wondered whether businesses will be happy yielding proprietary ownership of their brands to Facebook. In other words, will a company -- let's call it WidgetsMaker -- be happy being known in cyberspace as www.facebook.com/widgetsmaker, or will it buck this trend and demand to be known on Facebook as www.widgetsmaker.com/facebook? Hold your horses if you are rooting for Google to win over Facebook. Participants in my session voted on which of the two companies they would put their money into five years from now. The quick poll asked participants to make one of four choices: one, Facebook only; second, Google only; third, both Facebook and Google; and lastly, neither. The results were stunning. Only a handful in a room of more than 40 people would put their funds in either company alone five years from now, while half the room would invest in both companies within the same timeframe. The other half is looking for and expecting something else, something new. The problem Google faces, according to some participants, is that its search engine -- the main source of revenue at the company via advertising support -- is clashing with the march of technology. The Web was a chaotic place when Google made its debut, and the company has made a fortune out of bringing some order to the Internet by digging up information for users. However, with the advent of smartphone and tablet apps and social media outlets like Facebook -- which don't lend themselves as easily to search -- Google is hitting a brick wall. So much unsearchable data that the company cannot catalogue and categorize now resides outside the walls of the Internet. If apps win over the Internet, Google is "screwed," as one participant said. But that may not happen if Google transforms itself. If it fails to do this, the slide may not be that apparent for another five years. All of this got me thinking about the future, and especially the next five years. Here are some additional questions from the conference. What platforms will dominate the technology market by 2016? Which companies will be the Zeitgeist (today's Apple)? Would Facebook and Google still be as dominant? Would telecom service providers still be able to control customers' use of broadband? What new products will emerge as must-have similar to smartphones? What would be most important to enterprise IT customers and the equipment and consulting services vendors? And, critically, which five IPOs of 2011/2012 will prove to be great companies with great business models, and which will reveal mediocrity? Five years ago, the iPhone made its debut before powering on to dominate the smartphone market, the tablet PC segment had not gone mainstream because the iPad had not been born, and Android was just a word associated with aliens from another planet. So, let's collectively project another five years into the future. Let me know what you think the technology landscape would look like five years from now and which new products we might be talking about.