在趨向成熟的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，蘋果(Apple)已經(jīng)抵達(dá)最高峰；現(xiàn)在最大的問(wèn)題則是，他接下來(lái)的會(huì)不會(huì)開始走下坡？
蘋果從零一躍成為智能手機(jī)之王，主要是得益于iPhone實(shí)際上是一個(gè)開放性手機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)瀏覽器以及應(yīng)用程序平臺(tái)；但現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)重點(diǎn)已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦鄻踊墓δ芘c更完整的產(chǎn)品陣容，而且其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手越來(lái)越強(qiáng)。
根據(jù)市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)IHS iSuppli的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)， “其它廠商(請(qǐng)參考下頁(yè)表格)“已經(jīng)成為占據(jù)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)最大比例的一群，市占率達(dá)20%，出貨量年成長(zhǎng)率為310%。居于蘋果之后的第二大智能手機(jī)品牌三星(Samsung)，年出貨量成長(zhǎng)率是驚人的600%，而且市占率(17.8%)已經(jīng)與蘋果的18.4%相去無(wú)幾。
新發(fā)表的 iPhone 4S顯示，這一系列智能手機(jī)不再有關(guān)于技術(shù)或設(shè)計(jì)概念上的大突破，而是巧妙地以小步伐前進(jìn)；這款新iPhone并不是第一支采用雙核心處理器，以及支持800萬(wàn)畫素相機(jī)與1080p分辨率規(guī)格的智能手機(jī)，其它Android陣營(yíng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品早就搶先一步。
(我們的姐妹公司UBM TechInsights預(yù)測(cè)，iPhone 4S用的 A5 處理器與iPad 2所使用的三星制造45奈米芯片是同一款，并非是據(jù)報(bào)導(dǎo)已通過(guò)臺(tái)積電28奈米制程驗(yàn)證的版本；他們還預(yù)言iPhone 4S采用的是Omnivision的800萬(wàn)畫素相機(jī)模塊…到底是不是這樣？有待揭曉～)
與前一代iPhone 4外觀幾無(wú)差異的iPhone 4S ，采用了與iPad2相同的A5雙核處理器X02esmc
但如果思想領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者只做了一些些對(duì)手早已經(jīng)趕上的進(jìn)步，我認(rèn)為這意味著他遇上麻煩了…就連iCloud，從某種方面來(lái)看那也只是蘋果趕上了 Google 目前可提供的線上服務(wù)。
事實(shí)上，我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)可以看到，在蘋果最快于2012年推出配備NFC行動(dòng)支付功能的LTE手機(jī)之前，其Android競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手早已經(jīng)達(dá)到以上目標(biāo)。要看到所謂的“iPhone 5“問(wèn)世可能要等上一年，那時(shí)候目前的高階Android手機(jī)已經(jīng)兩歲了。
本文下一頁(yè)：中低階市場(chǎng)是軟肋
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 傳iPhone 5將于10月4日發(fā)布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板電腦與智能手機(jī)正在融合？
• iPhone5爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)——中移動(dòng)聯(lián)通的兄弟對(duì)決X02esmc
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中低階市場(chǎng)是軟肋
另一個(gè)值得注意的重點(diǎn)是，蘋果迄今并未推出低階甚至中階的智能手機(jī)，這不是他們的作風(fēng)；但很遺憾，市場(chǎng)觀察家大多同意，未來(lái)兩年智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的主要成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，正是來(lái)自蘋果不會(huì)涉足的中低階產(chǎn)品。其它廠商也都看到了這一點(diǎn)。
“我們預(yù)期蘋果在今年第三季與之后的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，仍能維持成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能；“ IHS iSuppli資深分析師Francis Sideco 在iPhone 4S 發(fā)表之前曾表示：”然而，三星已經(jīng)在過(guò)去的幾季透過(guò)同時(shí)推出高階與中低階機(jī)種，變得越來(lái)越強(qiáng)。“
Sideco當(dāng)時(shí)并指出：“未來(lái)半年到一年的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局演變關(guān)鍵指針，在于蘋果適不是會(huì)繼續(xù)只專攻高階產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)?！?
蘋果的沉默已經(jīng)回答了以上問(wèn)題；以我的財(cái)力來(lái)說(shuō)，智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在只有三星，HTC與其它品牌已經(jīng)在這一局落敗。這并不是代表Apple乏善可陳，該公司從A系列處理器、iOS到零售點(diǎn)統(tǒng)包的垂直整合業(yè)務(wù)能力，是消費(fèi)性電子產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域所有人都羨慕的。
另外蘋果藉由提供 iCloud 服務(wù)簡(jiǎn)化跨iOS平臺(tái)裝置的整合，也是一項(xiàng)重要戰(zhàn)略。也就是說(shuō)，你用Mac計(jì)算機(jī)iTunes下載的一首歌，會(huì)同時(shí)在你的 iPhone 出現(xiàn)；或者是你用iPhone付費(fèi)下載的電子書，也能透過(guò)iPad來(lái)閱讀。
以上是蘋果能做得比別人好的一件事情，而且必然會(huì)吸引那些擁有來(lái)自不同供貨商之Android裝置的使用者；那些裝置通常無(wú)法互通，就算可以也不會(huì)很順暢。
無(wú)疑的，蘋果還是會(huì)因?yàn)橹T如此類以使用者為中心的軟件整合，取得一定程度成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能；但他無(wú)法永遠(yuǎn)抵擋Android大軍。再加上，我們還沒(méi)看到接下來(lái)幾個(gè)月諾基亞(Nokia)-微軟(Microsoft)聯(lián)軍將會(huì)有的表現(xiàn)；雖然我不預(yù)期會(huì)有多大震撼力，但他們確有本事建立一個(gè)能在手機(jī)市場(chǎng)占據(jù)一席之地的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。
剛問(wèn)世的 Kindle Fire 可能是第一個(gè)侵蝕 iPad 領(lǐng)土的強(qiáng)大威脅者；如果亞馬遜(Amazon)把惠普(HP)的WebOS吃下，其吞食速度恐怕會(huì)更快。而且蘋果沒(méi)辦法永遠(yuǎn)用法律訴訟這一招，來(lái)阻擋三星的Galaxy 平板這類裝置進(jìn)入所有的市場(chǎng)。
我預(yù)期蘋果在占據(jù)幾季的優(yōu)勢(shì)之后，可能會(huì)有一小段時(shí)間走下坡，除非他們能再出奇招，比如于2015年左右推出另一個(gè)定義數(shù)字消費(fèi)性市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品；例如“iTV”之類的…你說(shuō)呢？
本文下一頁(yè)：iPhone 4S 成本203美元
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 傳iPhone 5將于10月4日發(fā)布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板電腦與智能手機(jī)正在融合？
• iPhone5爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)——中移動(dòng)聯(lián)通的兄弟對(duì)決X02esmc
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32 GB iPhone 4S BoM估價(jià)203美元
EETimes美國(guó)版姊妹公司、拆解分析機(jī)構(gòu) UBM TechInsights 預(yù)估，新亮相的32-GB版本 iPhone 4S 物料清單(BOM)成本為203美元，與2010年中問(wèn)世的第一代 iPhone 4 相當(dāng)。
UBM TechInsights表示，這是根據(jù)以前iPhone 4的歷史成本，以及iPhone 4S新的主要零件來(lái)估計(jì)的。 203美元包括了蘋果A5處理器（26美元）和Retina顯示屏（31美元）——蘋果稱之為：有史以來(lái)手機(jī)中分辨率最高的屏。
該機(jī)構(gòu)還推測(cè)，iPhone 4S的利潤(rùn)將與之前版本的iPhone差不多。
“從技術(shù)角度來(lái)看，iPhone 4S并沒(méi)有任何革命性或是非預(yù)料中的元素；”UBM TechInsights商業(yè)情報(bào)副總經(jīng)理Jeffrey Brown表示：“如我們?cè)?月所預(yù)測(cè)的，iPhone 4S是iPhone 4的小改款，配備已經(jīng)被使用了約9個(gè)月的 A5 處理器、讓該款手機(jī)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手看齊的影像傳感器，以及增強(qiáng)版的電池續(xù)航力?！?
全新支持1080p高畫質(zhì)錄像的增強(qiáng)版攝影機(jī)X02esmc
蘋果在美國(guó)時(shí)間10月4日發(fā)表的iPhone 4S配備雙核心A5處理器、支持1080p高畫質(zhì)錄像的增強(qiáng)版攝影機(jī)，以及命名為 Siri 的智能輔助功能；預(yù)定10月14日在美國(guó)開賣，16GB版本訂價(jià)199美元，32GB版本訂價(jià)299美元。該公司并表示新款手機(jī)將在10月底，于全球22個(gè)以上國(guó)家銷售。
本文下一頁(yè)：LTE環(huán)境不成熟導(dǎo)致iPhone 5延期
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 傳iPhone 5將于10月4日發(fā)布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板電腦與智能手機(jī)正在融合？
• iPhone5爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)——中移動(dòng)聯(lián)通的兄弟對(duì)決X02esmc
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LTE環(huán)境不成熟導(dǎo)致iPhone 5延期
原本市場(chǎng)預(yù)期蘋果會(huì)推出支持4G通訊的全新“iPhone 5”，但出場(chǎng)的卻是iPhone 4的小改款iPhone 4S；市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)IHS iSuppli預(yù)測(cè)，蘋果應(yīng)該會(huì)等到有一款可實(shí)現(xiàn)更纖薄手機(jī)外型的、價(jià)格合理的芯片組解決方案問(wèn)世，才會(huì)推出支持LTE的“iPhone 5”，時(shí)間大概是在2012年底或是2013年中。
之前謠傳支持LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)的iPhone 5假想圖X02esmc
“就像蘋果的一貫作風(fēng)，該公司為iPhone 4選擇的功能，是基于優(yōu)異的使用者體驗(yàn)，而不是為了技術(shù)而技術(shù)?！盜HS iSuppli資深分析師Francis Sideco表示：“因?yàn)槿绱?，蘋果并沒(méi)有推出支持 LTE 的iPhone，因?yàn)閮r(jià)格會(huì)更高、尺寸更大、耗電也更兇；而是選擇推出一款無(wú)線上網(wǎng)速度差不多、但使用者體驗(yàn)更優(yōu)異的產(chǎn)品?！?
UBM TechInsights 技術(shù)情報(bào)副總經(jīng)理David Carey則認(rèn)為，蘋果決定不推 LTE 版iPhone的原因，是與LTE技術(shù)滲透率進(jìn)展緩慢有關(guān)；與該公司合作首賣第一代iPhone的電信業(yè)者AT&T，到現(xiàn)在都還沒(méi)有推出4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)。
根據(jù)UBM TechInsights 的說(shuō)法，可跨GSM/ CDMA網(wǎng)絡(luò)的iPhone 4S，在Verizon版(也就是CDMA版) iPhone 4問(wèn)世時(shí)就已埋下伏筆。
“當(dāng)CDMA版iPhone 4上市時(shí)，所采用的高通(Qualcomm)基頻調(diào)制解調(diào)器芯片就有支持雙頻的功能；”Brown表示：“這是蘋果準(zhǔn)備推出可節(jié)省設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)間與量產(chǎn)成本的“全球通用”手機(jī)之最大伏筆，如此一來(lái)蘋果不需要再為不同的電信業(yè)者生產(chǎn)兩種手機(jī)。我們預(yù)期新機(jī)型的天線設(shè)計(jì)會(huì)與CDMA版iPhone 4非常相似。”
Carey指出，iPhone 4S是蘋果‘產(chǎn)品周期’的一部分：“就像我們所看到的iPhone 3G進(jìn)展至iPhone 3GS的技術(shù)小改進(jìn)，蘋果在躍進(jìn)iPhone 5平臺(tái)之前，采取了相同的逐步演進(jìn)模式?！?
相比3G到3GS的改變，4代到4S的變化更小一些X02esmc
編譯：Judith Cheng
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文： Apple iPhone 4S: Beginning of the end?，by Rick Merritt; BoM for 32-GB iPhone 4S estimated at $203, by Dylan McGrath
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 傳iPhone 5將于10月4日發(fā)布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板電腦與智能手機(jī)正在融合？
• iPhone5爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)——中移動(dòng)聯(lián)通的兄弟對(duì)決X02esmc
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Apple iPhone 4S: Beginning of the end?
Rick Merritt
SAN JOSE, Calif. – Apple has reached a summit in what is becoming a mature smartphone market. Its biggest issue now is whether the rest of the journey is all downhill.
Apple rose from zero to king of the smartphone hill this year, largely on the strength of its realization in the iPhone that the handset is an open mobile Web browser and applications platform. But now competition has become a game of adding incremental features and rounding out product lines, and the competitors are coming on strong.
"Other" is already the biggest player in the category with 20 percent market share and growing at 310 percent a year, according to the latest figures from IHS iSuppli (table at bottom). At number two to Apple, Samsung is coming on strong at an astounding 600 percent growth and is already nearly even with Apple's 18.4 percent share, the market watcher said.
The iPhone 4S launched today proves the smartphone is no longer about big breakthroughs in technology or high concept. It's about smartly taking small steps forward. It is not the first smartphone to sport a dual-core processor, 8 MPixel camera or 1080-progressive video support. Those kudos have already been handed out to its Android competitors.
(It will be interesting to see if my UBM TechInsights colleagues were correct that this is still the Samsung-made 45nm A5 used in the iPad 2, not the 28nm version still reportedly grinding through the TSMC fab. They also predicted an 8MP Omnivision camera and an overall underwhelming iPhone 4+.)
When the thought leader is making only incremental advances that largely catch up with competition, I think it says the thought leader is in trouble.
Even iCloud in some ways is only Apple catching up with Google's online offerings.
Indeed, we can now see it will be at least 2012 before Apple rolls out an LTE handset using near-field communications for mobile payments—big steps its Android competitors have already taken. That's probably the iPhone 5 a year from now, basically a two year old high-end Android handset.
It's also worth noting Apple has not rolled out a low- or even middle-end smartphone to date. That's not the game as Apple plays it. Unfortunately for Cupertino, market watchers agree most of the smartphone growth for the next two years will be in those mid- and low-end segments where Apple won't play.
Others see this, too.
"We expect Apple to continue to maintain its momentum in the smartphone market in the third quarter and beyond,” said Francis Sideco, senior wireless analyst for IHS in comments released just before the iPhone 4S launch.
“However, Samsung has been coming on strong during the last few quarters, driven by its participation in both the high- and low-end smartphone segments," Sideco said. "One of the key indicators of how the smartphone competitive landscape will evolve during the next six to 12 months will be whether or not Apple will continue to stay exclusively in the high-end market,” he added.
That question just got answered by Apple's silence. For my money, the smartphone game is Samsung's, HTC's and Others' game to lose at this point.
That's not to say Apple doesn't have some great things going for it. It's vertically integrated model of owning everything from the A-series processor and iOS to the retail outlet is the envy of everyone in the consumer business.
Also strategic is the way Apple is providing ease of integration across iOS devices with its iCloud services. But an iTunes song on your Mac; it appears on your iPhone. Buy a book on your iPhone; it's available on your iPad.
This is the sort of thing Apple does better than anyone, and it is bound to attract users with Android devices from multiple vendors that don't work together nearly so well—if at all.
No doubt, Apple will gain some growth from such smart user-centric software integration. But it cannot hold off the Android herd forever.
And we have yet to see what Nokia and Microsoft will come up with in the next few months. I don't expect to be blown away, but they have the clout to create an ecosystem that grabs a slice of the expanding mobile pie.
The Kindle Fire could be the first to eat into the iPad tablet franchise in a big way. If Amazon buys HP's WebOS group, its appetite will grow considerably. And Apple can't use court actions to keep the well designed Samsung Galaxy iPad-alike devices out of all markets indefinitely.
I see Apple riding the crest for a few quarters then slowly riding the downward curve awhile. Unless it can grab one more brass ring and help define yet another major digital consumer market in say 2015 or so.
iTV, anyone?
BoM for 32-GB iPhone 4S estimated at $203
Dylan McGrath
SAN FRANCISCO—The bill-of-materials (BoM) for the 32-GB version Apple Inc.'s newly announced iPhone 4S is estimated to be about $203, roughly the same as the original iPhone 4's BoM when it was launched in mid-2010, according to a preliminary estimate by UBM TechInsights.
UBM TechInsights, which is owned by the same company that publishes EE Times, UBM plc, said it derived its estimate from previous cost history and estimates on the major components of the iPhone 4S. The $203 estimate includes an estimated cost of $26 for the smartphone's Apple A5 processor and $31 for the Retina display, described by Apple to be the highest-resolution phone screen ever.
UBM TechInsights concluded that the iPhone 4S will achieve the same healthy profit margin that Apple has garnered from previous iPhones.
"Technology-wise, you aren’t seeing anything revolutionary or unexpected from the iPhone 4S," said Jeffrey Brown, vice president of business intelligence at UBM TechInsights. "As we predicted in July, the iPhone 4S is a moderate improvement over the iPhone 4—featuring an A5 processor that has been in use for approximately nine months, an image sensor that puts the handset on par with its competitors and improved battery life."
The iPhone 4S, introduced by Apple at a press event here Tuesday (Oct. 4), features Apple's dual-core A5 processor, a new camera with advanced optics, full 1080p high-definition resolution video recording and an intelligent assistant feature called Siri, according to Apple. It will be available Oct. 14 in the U.S. for $199 for a 16-GB model, $299 for a 32-GB model adn $399 for a 64-GB model. The handset will be roll out in more than 22 countries worldwide by the end of October, according to the company.
Apple was widely expected to launch iPhone 5, an entirely new model supporting 4G. Instead, the company introduced iPhone 4S, an incremental update of iPhone 4. According to market research firm IHS iSuppli, Apple is likely to introduce an LTE-capable iPhone 5 when an affordable chipset solution allowing a thinner form factor is available, likely in late 2012 or in mid-2013.
"As Apple always does, the company selected features for the iPhone 4 that are designed to deliver a superior customer experience, rather than to provide technology for technology’s sake," said Francis Sideco, senior principal analyst for wireless communications at IHS, in a statement. "Because of this, Apple declined to offer an LTE-enabled iPhone that would have been more expensive, larger and more power hungry—and instead opted to introduce a device that delivers nearly the same wireless data speed, but with a superior user experience."
David Carey, vice president of technical intelligence at UBM TechInsights, said he believes Apple's decision not to introduce an LTE iPhone was related to the slow adoption of LTE. AT&T, the iPhone's original carrier, has yet to introduce 4G networks to customers, he said.
According to UBM TechInsights, the introduction of the iPhone 4S across GSM and CDMA networks in a singular design was alluded to in the introduction of the Verizon model of the iPhone 4.
"When the CDMA version of the iPhone 4 was brought to market, it featured a Qualcomm baseband modem that was capable of working across both networks," Brown said. "This was the single biggest indicator that Apple was moving towards a 'world phone' that would reduce design times and production costs. There would no longer be the need to produce two phones for different carriers to choose from. We expect the new antenna design to be very similar to what we saw in the CDMA version of the iPhone 4."
Carey said Tuesday's iPhone 4S announcement was "par for the course" for Apple. "Just as we saw a modest technology bump from the iPhone 3G to the iPhone 3GS, Apple is adopting the same model of iterative improvement and incrementalism as they gear up for the iPhone 5 platform," Carey said.
UBM TechInsights plans to conduct a comprehensive teardown analysis of the iPhone 4S when they hit stores Oct. 14. Information about the teardown of the original iPhone 4 is available on the firm's website.
