Research In Motion (RIM)公司CEO James Balsillie應(yīng)該是生活在一個(gè)周遭沒(méi)有任何RIM公司股東的另類(lèi)世界吧！他天真樂(lè)觀地相信RIM公司正好運(yùn)連連，而投資人卻似乎認(rèn)為這家Blackberry手機(jī)制造商只是在快速地走下坡中。 就在九月中旬，James Balsillie在該公司第二季財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上發(fā)表了樂(lè)觀的談話(huà)。他說(shuō)，RIM公司正感受到市場(chǎng)對(duì)其產(chǎn)品的強(qiáng)勁需求。服務(wù)營(yíng)收攀升至10億美元的新高紀(jì)錄，而新款“Blackberry 7 智能手機(jī)已如期上市，同時(shí)由于這項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品融合了技術(shù)性能與工業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)，因而深獲合作伙伴與用戶(hù)好評(píng)?！? 聽(tīng)起來(lái)不錯(cuò)吧？但投資人可不這么認(rèn)為。RIM公司日前在華爾街股市交易一開(kāi)盤(pán)，股價(jià)就暴跌超過(guò)22%，僅在幾分鐘之內(nèi)其市值就狂跌約37億美元。當(dāng)然，這樣的跌幅畢竟太過(guò)火，開(kāi)盤(pán)后第一小時(shí)內(nèi)股價(jià)已稍微恢復(fù)些。但在我完成這篇報(bào)導(dǎo)的當(dāng)天，該公司股價(jià)跌幅約達(dá)19%。然而，在投資界看到的是，當(dāng)一位分析師在路透社的報(bào)導(dǎo)中發(fā)布這些消息時(shí)，RIM公司的高層仍“公然否認(rèn)”。 這并不是天馬行空的恣意判斷。但Balsillie在該公司財(cái)報(bào)電話(huà)會(huì)議上聽(tīng)起來(lái)就像是一部脫軌的暴走列車(chē)。事實(shí)上，由于Balsillie持續(xù)不斷地喊話(huà)，指出他深信RIM公司正處于強(qiáng)勢(shì)地位，很快地就能超越像蘋(píng)果(Apple)、三星電子(Samsung Electronics)以及其它前幾大智能手機(jī)與平板電腦供貨商，這可能會(huì)讓人以為整個(gè)世界都錯(cuò)估了RIM公司所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。 以下是Balsillie在財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上所提出的一些看法： Blackberry智能手機(jī)的需求在所有地區(qū)都十分強(qiáng)勁 ... ... 在北美，Blackberry 7智能手機(jī)正大受歡迎，并從上季的最后幾周到目前為止都持續(xù)帶動(dòng)銷(xiāo)售增加... 亞洲Blackberry智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)仍持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁且不斷成長(zhǎng)中，Blackberry Playbook平板電腦也已在第二季時(shí)于該區(qū)推出。這一地區(qū)中的主要電信業(yè)者和零售業(yè)伙伴都十分積極地透過(guò)廣告、店內(nèi)展示以及更具吸引力的BlackBerry智能手機(jī)及相關(guān)配件搭售等方式來(lái)支持Blackberry Playbook平板電腦的銷(xiāo)售。 RIM公司目前在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上仍維持有大約14億美元現(xiàn)金的強(qiáng)勢(shì)位置... 推動(dòng)更高的成本效益以及有效管理組織結(jié)構(gòu)是一個(gè)連續(xù)的過(guò)程，但我們覺(jué)得RIM至今已取得了重大的進(jìn)展；同時(shí)，我們對(duì)于所安排的團(tuán)隊(duì)未來(lái)能夠成功地達(dá)到Blackberry社群需求及執(zhí)行轉(zhuǎn)換計(jì)劃等目標(biāo)也深具信心。 以上純屬Balsillie另類(lèi)世界的個(gè)人看法。但股東以及投資人們對(duì)于該公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)立場(chǎng)則有不同的想法。分析師們先前預(yù)計(jì)RIM在今年第二季約有44.7億美元的營(yíng)收。事實(shí)上，該公司發(fā)布的財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)字為41.7億美元，不但低于上季的49.1億美元營(yíng)收，并較去年同期的46.2億美元減少了11%。毛利率從2010年第二季的44.5%下降到38.7%，而現(xiàn)金及短期投資則由21億美元下滑至12億美元。(該公司在聯(lián)合收購(gòu)北電專(zhuān)利上花費(fèi)約7.5億美元，但跌幅所顯示的營(yíng)運(yùn)現(xiàn)金基本上仍是零。) 投資人也不滿(mǎn)意RIM PlayBook平板電腦在第二季出貨量?jī)H20萬(wàn)部的成績(jī)，這一數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于上一季的50萬(wàn)部出貨量。他們甚至還擔(dān)心毛利率連續(xù)下降5.2%可能會(huì)成為一種常態(tài)。 最后，如果Balsillie對(duì)于RIM的未來(lái)感到樂(lè)觀是依據(jù)最近的公司營(yíng)運(yùn)發(fā)展，如Blackberry Bold 9900上市，那么股東們的擔(dān)心和懷疑則來(lái)自于深切關(guān)心該公司得以成功地與蘋(píng)果以及三星等公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)抗衡的能力。 再者，也不能責(zé)怪股東們大量拋售RIM股票的行動(dòng)。Balsillie個(gè)人認(rèn)為該公司12億美元的現(xiàn)金還有一半之多，但投資人卻認(rèn)為RIM在處于與蘋(píng)果公司較勁的位置時(shí)己沒(méi)有什么現(xiàn)金優(yōu)勢(shì)了。 當(dāng)出貨量下滑，現(xiàn)金流降低，利潤(rùn)壓力持續(xù)加劇，而重要的產(chǎn)品上市(PlayBook平板電腦)后也無(wú)法吸引廣大的客戶(hù)群時(shí)，你又如何能夠嚴(yán)正地說(shuō)服投資人相信自己仍是一家有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的廠商，還有能力和銀行中有750億美元以及全線(xiàn)產(chǎn)品一上架就賣(mài)光光的強(qiáng)大對(duì)手抗衡？ 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：RIM CEO's Alternative Universe ，by Bolaji Ojo

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{pagination} RIM CEO's Alternative Universe Bolaji Ojo James Balsillie, CEO of Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM), must be living in a different world populated mainly by non-RIM shareholders. He believes the company is on a roll, while investors seem to think the Blackberry maker is simply rolling downhill -- fast. On Thursday, Balsillie delivered an optimistic speech during the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings conference call. RIM, he said, was experiencing strong demand for its products. Service revenue climbed to a record $1 billion, and the new "Blackberry 7 smartphones launched on schedule and have been enthusiastically received by our partners and customers for their blend of technical performance and industrial design." Sound great? Investors didn't think so. Today, RIM's stock price fell more than 22 percent at the beginning of trading on Wall Street, shaving approximately $3.7 billion off its market value within minutes. Of course, the decline was overdone, and the stock recovered somewhat within the first hour of trading. At the time this report was written, it was down only 19 percent for the day. However, the perception in the investment community is that RIM's top executives are in "blatant denial," as one analyst put it in a Reuters report. That's not a huge leap in judgment. Balsillie sounded like a runaway freight train during the company's earnings conference call. In fact, one would have assumed the entire world was mistaken about the challenges facing the company as he pounded away with phrases that indicated he believes RIM is in a strong position and would soon outrun companies like Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC), and other top smartphone and tablet PC vendors. Here are some telling comments from Balsillie: Demand for Blackberry smartphones was strong across all regions... In North America, Blackberry 7 smartphones are having an excellent reception and have driven a meaningful increase in sell-through in the region during the last few weeks of the quarter and so far in September... Asia continues to be a strong and growing market for Blackberry smartphones, and the Blackberry Playbook was also launched in the region during Q2. Key carriers and retail partners in the region are supporting Playbook with advertising support, prominent in-store displays, and attractive bundle offers with Blackberry smartphones and accessories... RIM's balance sheet remained strong with a cash position of approximately $1.4 billion... Driving cost efficiency and managing the organization's structure is a continuous process, but we feel we have made tremendous progress and are confident the teams we have in place can successfully meet the future needs of our Blackberry community and execute on our transition plan. That was the view from Planet Balsillie. Shareholders and investors have a different take on the company's competitive position. Analysts had projected RIM would report revenue of approximately $4.47 billion for the quarter that just ended. Instead, it posted $4.17 billion, down from $4.91 billion in the preceding quarter and a decrease of 11 percent from $4.62 billion in the same quarter last year. The gross profit margin fell to 38.7 percent from 44.5 percent in the same quarter in 2010, and cash and short-term investments slipped to $1.2 billion from $2.1 billion. (The company spent $750 million on its joint purchase of Nortel patents, but the decline still indicates cash from operations was essentially zero.) Investors also didn't like the fact that RIM shipped only 200,000 Playbook tablet PCs in its fiscal second quarter, down from 500,000 units in the immediately preceding quarter. They were also worried the sequential decline of 5.2 percentage points in the gross profit margin could become permanent. Finally, if Balsillie's optimism about RIM's future was based on more recent developments, such as the introduction of the Blackberry Bold 9900, the wariness and skepticism from shareholders rests on divergent, deepening concerns about the ability to compete successfully against the likes of Apple and Samsung. Again, it's hard to fault the shareholders dumping RIM's shares. Balsillie sees a half-full glass in the company's $1.2 billion cash pile, but investors see a near-empty cup when they juxtapose RIM's position against Apple's. When your shipments are falling, cash is low, margin pressures are intensifying, and a major product launch (Playbook tablet PC) fails to ignite the customer base, how can you seriously and convincingly argue you are a viable competitor against a rival with $75 billion in the bank and a lineup of products that keep flying off the shelves?