由分析師Bill Jewell創(chuàng)立的顧問機(jī)構(gòu) Semiconductor Intelligence 指出，2011下半年電子產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣有些許樂觀跡象，但該機(jī)構(gòu)仍將2011年芯片市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率預(yù) 測(cè)值，由原先的9%下修為4%。 Jewell表示，下修該預(yù)測(cè)值的主要原因，是 2011年第二季半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)衰弱，而這當(dāng)然會(huì)拉低整年度市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率。雖然有不少分析師認(rèn)為第二季的衰弱，是因 為西方國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷與對(duì)再度出現(xiàn)景氣蕭條的恐懼；但Jewell將第二季的半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)衰退，歸咎于311日本大地震對(duì)半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)鏈造成的影響。 “情況并沒有那么糟；”Jewell指出，消費(fèi)者心態(tài)可能讓某些領(lǐng)域表現(xiàn)衰退，但整體消費(fèi)性與商業(yè)電子產(chǎn)品支出仍然強(qiáng)勁。舉例來說，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)休閑娛樂產(chǎn) 品與車輛的支出，在2011年第一季與第二季分別成長(zhǎng)75%與15.3%，這部分支出有75%是電子類產(chǎn)品；此外美國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)設(shè)備與軟件的投資，在第一季與第二季也分別 有8.7%與7.9%的成長(zhǎng)。 Jewell認(rèn)為，芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)第二季面臨的問題主要是日本；當(dāng)季日本市場(chǎng)較第一季衰退了8.1%，而世界其它區(qū)域也受到影響，芯片市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)呈現(xiàn)0.9%的季衰退。 而Jewell指出，近期有數(shù)家股票上市芯片公司的財(cái)報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)都頗為樂觀，例如瑞薩(Renesas)預(yù)估2011年第三季芯片營(yíng)收(以日?qǐng)A計(jì))將反彈成長(zhǎng)23%，英特爾(Intel) 、超微(AMD)與高通(Qualcomm)也在財(cái)報(bào)中預(yù)測(cè)第三季營(yíng)收可健康成長(zhǎng)，幅度在7~11%，符合正常季節(jié)性水準(zhǔn)。不過德州儀器(TI)與意法半導(dǎo)體(ST)的財(cái)報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)較 為悲觀，表示第三季營(yíng)收恐略為衰退。

各家半導(dǎo)體業(yè)者對(duì)2011年第三季營(yíng)收預(yù)測(cè)
（來源：Semiconductor Intelligence）69wesmc

“盡管歐美市場(chǎng)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況不佳，但半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力仍相對(duì)健全，因此半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)該會(huì)在2011下半年與2012年持續(xù)呈現(xiàn)緩慢成長(zhǎng)；”Jewell總結(jié)指出，Semiconductor Intelligence對(duì)2012年全球芯片市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)測(cè)，維持在10%。 本文授權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)載自EETIMES，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！ 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考原文： Analyst sees upside in 2H11 chip market，by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} Analyst sees upside in 2H11 chip market LONDON – Semiconductor Intelligence LLC, a consultancy formed by analyst Bill Jewell, sees some positive signs for the electronics economy in the second-half of 2011, but has nonetheless reduced its global chip market growth forecast for 2011 to 4 percent from a previous forecast of 9 percent. The reduction is due to the weakness of the semiconductor market in 2Q11, which has knocked what was set to be an average year of course, Jewell said. However, whereas many analysts are attributing the 2Q decline to general economic malaise and fear of a double dip recession in the western hemisphere, Jewell sees the weak Q2 as being due to the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan which damaged much of the semiconductor supply chain. Jewell observed on his website: "the news is not all bad," before going on to point out that while consumers may be hurting and cutting back in some areas, consumer and business spending on electronics is still relatively strong. U.S. consumer spending on recreational goods and vehicles, which is 75 percent electronics-based, grew 15.3 percent in 1Q11 and 9.3 percent in 2Q11, Jewell observed. U.S. business investment in equipment and software grew 8.7 percent in Q1 and 7.9 percent in Q2, he said. The Q2 problem for the chip industry was clearly mainly a Japanese problem. The Japan Q2 market was down 8.1 percent from 1Q11 and while the rest of the world suffered it only showed a sequential decline of 0.9 percent. Taking heart from the forward-looking statements of a number of publicly-owned chip companies Jewell said that Renesas expects 3Q11 yen- denominated chip sales to bounce back 23 percent and Intel, AMD and Qualcomm all expect healthy 3Q11 growth with midpoints of their guidance ranging from 7 to 11 percent, which is a typical seasonal sales pattern. Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics remain more bearish as they say they expect a slight decline to moderate growth in Q3, said Jewell. "The semiconductor industry should continue to grow at a moderate rate for the remainder of 2011 and in 2012. Despite concerns about the overall economies in the U.S. and Europe, major drivers of the semiconductor market remain fairly healthy," Jewell concluded. Semiconductor Intelligence is keeping its 2012 forecast for global chip market growth at 10 percent.