面對(duì)PC需求持續(xù)放緩，華爾街分析師指出，英特爾(Intel)很可能削減2011~2012年的資本支出。 Barclays Capital分析師C.J. Muse在一份報(bào)告中指出，有消息指稱英特爾已在其22nm發(fā)展藍(lán)圖中，取消了位在愛(ài)爾蘭Leixlip的Fab 24廠。目前還不清楚英特爾 是否會(huì)將已安裝在Fab 24廠的22nm設(shè)備重新安裝在以色列和亞利桑那州的晶圓廠中，Muse表示。 “我們當(dāng)不清楚英特爾是否會(huì)重新分配其以色列或其它廠房的產(chǎn)能，或是削減資本支出，”Muse在報(bào)告中提到。他同時(shí)指出，他相信英特爾計(jì)劃在九月的第二周 決定是否將這些設(shè)備送到別的廠房，或是繼續(xù)閑置。 英特爾并未公開(kāi)宣布將在Fab 24廠生產(chǎn)22nm芯片。該公司之前曾將將兩座位于奧勒岡州的廠房，以及以色列的Fab 28和亞利桑納州的Fab 12列為開(kāi)發(fā)22nm芯片的 廠房。 今年一月，英特爾宣布投資5億美元在Leixlip Fab 14廠的計(jì)劃，這座廠房于2010年2月關(guān)閉。當(dāng)時(shí)，英特爾并未說(shuō)明將投資何種技術(shù)節(jié)點(diǎn)。 上周二，英特爾發(fā)言人證實(shí)，該公司目前還沒(méi)有將Fab 24廠轉(zhuǎn)換至22nm的計(jì)劃。 然而，Muse在一封與《EE Times》往來(lái)的電子郵件中表示，他的理解是英特爾之前確實(shí)有計(jì)劃在Fab 24廠建構(gòu)22nm芯片，且設(shè)備預(yù)計(jì)在2012年到位。 “但現(xiàn)在，截至上周五為止，看來(lái)英特爾已經(jīng)將這座廠房從22nm的發(fā)展藍(lán)圖中取消了，”Muse說(shuō)。“目前尚不清楚英特爾將設(shè)備轉(zhuǎn)往以色列、亞利桑那州或奧勒 岡州的廠房，或是他們目前還不需要這些產(chǎn)能，抑或是在當(dāng)前環(huán)境中，他們僅是單純地想采取較保守的資本支出。” 據(jù)Muse表示，過(guò)去幾年月以來(lái)疲弱的PC銷售，讓許多人認(rèn)為英特爾可能會(huì)削減其第三季銷售目標(biāo)。Muse指出，他和Barclays的分析師同事們對(duì)此一看法持保留態(tài) 度，主要原因是相對(duì)精實(shí)的庫(kù)存和服務(wù)器端的強(qiáng)勁需求，可能讓英特爾達(dá)到135億和145億美元的指導(dǎo)營(yíng)收，以及60~65美分的設(shè)算每股盈余(pro forma earnings per share)。 “然而，提到英特爾的人事凍結(jié)以及推動(dòng)資本支出的腳步時(shí)，在我們看來(lái)，英特爾完全不積極，”Muse說(shuō)。 本文下一頁(yè)：設(shè)備供貨商的壞消息 {pagination} 設(shè)備供貨商的壞消息 如果說(shuō)對(duì)Fab 24廠所做的決策代表著削減資本支出，那么，對(duì)半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備供貨商來(lái)說(shuō)，這顯然意味著漸進(jìn)的負(fù)面影響，Muse說(shuō)。但他仍預(yù)計(jì)，2011年英特爾將斥 資約60億美元在前端生產(chǎn)設(shè)備，2012年則至少有50億美元。 如果英特爾不重新將設(shè)備分配給其它廠房，那么，Muse的初步計(jì)算顯示，此一決策將削減3億到6億美元左右的英特爾前端設(shè)備支出。 英特爾預(yù)計(jì)今年底量產(chǎn)22nm組件。該公司的22nm芯片將采用其三閘極(tri-gate) 3D晶體管技術(shù)。 稍早前英特爾曾表示，今年度包括前端和后端生產(chǎn)設(shè)備在內(nèi)，資本支出可能達(dá)到90億美元。 本周一，F(xiàn)BR Capital Market Research分析師Craig Berger指出，針對(duì)前六大PC ODM進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，市場(chǎng)需求仍在惡化，目前預(yù)計(jì)第三季將比第二季再下降1% 。上個(gè)月對(duì)第三季所做的預(yù)測(cè)顯示將成長(zhǎng)1.5%，Berger表示。 “我們的訪查對(duì)象表示，今年7~8月之間，歐洲、美國(guó)和中國(guó)的需求疲弱，且蘋(píng)果(Apple) iPad仍大幅影響了消費(fèi)性筆電的銷售，”Berger說(shuō)?！按送?，我們也聽(tīng) 到包括惠普(HP)、Acer、戴爾(Dell)等業(yè)者都在清理庫(kù)存?！? 早先的一些預(yù)測(cè)顯示，與第三季相比，今年第四季筆記本電腦基本上是持平的，“這比周期性波動(dòng)更加糟糕且令人失望，”Berger說(shuō)。 Berger指出，有些投資者擔(dān)心，在疲弱的PC需求和惡化的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)條件、可能放緩的服務(wù)器支出和其它負(fù)面因素下，英特爾第三季銷售目標(biāo)可能過(guò)于激進(jìn)。但 Berger指出，最近分析師們對(duì)英特爾的預(yù)測(cè)也經(jīng)常出錯(cuò)。 “許多人都預(yù)測(cè)英特爾的短缺會(huì)超過(guò)一年，但都沒(méi)有成真，這證實(shí)了英特爾的營(yíng)運(yùn)能力和強(qiáng)大的產(chǎn)品藍(lán)圖，”Berger說(shuō)。 Berger指出，F(xiàn)BR的分析師們認(rèn)為，英特爾第三季的銷售目標(biāo)應(yīng)介于136億和141億美元之間。Berger表示，F(xiàn)BR的‘市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)’對(duì)英特爾目標(biāo)股價(jià)評(píng)等為27美元。 本文授權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)載自EETIMES，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！ 編譯： Joy Teng 參考原文： Intel may cut capex, says analyst，by Dylan McGrath

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{pagination} Intel may cut capex, says analyst SAN FRANCISCO—Intel Corp. may cut back on capital equipment spending in 2011 and 2012 in the face of slackening PC demand, according to a Wall Street analyst. In a report circulated Tuesday (Aug. 30), C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said sources indicate that Intel (Santa Clara, Calif.) has removed its Fab 24 in Leixlip, Ireland, from its 22-nm roadmap. It is unclear whether Intel will reallocate 22-nm equipment slated for Fab 24 to other fabs in Israel and Arizona, Muse said. "What is unclear to us is whether Intel will reallocate capacity to Israel or other facilities or whether this is a cut to capex," Muse wrote in the report. Muse said he believes that Intel is planning to decide the second week of September whether to send the equipment elsewhere or to keep it off line. Intel has not publicly said it would build 22-nm chips at Fab 24. The company has previously listed as 22-nm facilities its two development fabs in Oregon as well as Fab 28 in Israel and Fab 32 and Fab 12 in Arizona. In January, Intel announced plans to invest $500 million to re-commission its Fab 14 in Leixlip, which had been closed in February 2010. At the time, the company made no commitment to a specific technology node as part of the investment. A spokesperson for Intel confirmed Tuesday that the company has no plans currently to convert Fab 24 to a 22-nm facility. But, in an email exchange with EE Times, Muse said his understanding was that Intel was definitely planning to build 22-nm chips at Fab 24, with equipment deliveries expected in 2012. "Now, as of Friday, it appears that Intel has removed this fab from its 22-nm roadmap," Muse said. "What is unclear is whether they have decided to put equipment for the fab in Israel, Arizona or Oregon, or whether they don't think they need to capacity or just simply want to be conservative on capex in the current environment." According to Muse, weakening PC sales over the past months have led many to believe Intel could cut its third quarter sales target. Muse said he and fellow Barclays analysts were on the fence about this possibility, citing relatively lean inventory in the channel and strength in server demand, which could enable Intel to reach the low end of its guidance of revenue of between $13.5 billion and $14.5 billion and pro forma earnings per share of 60 to 65 cents. "But with talk of a hiring freeze at Intel and now some push to capex, these data points aren't exactly positive for Intel, in our view," Muse added.