前言：蘋果首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫•喬布斯再度病休，這是24個月以來第二次發(fā)生這種情況。這迫使蘋果員工、投資者和蘋果迷思索一個糟糕的情形：失去喬布斯的蘋果。2009年那次病休，喬布斯當(dāng)時宣布只休六個月，但這次并沒有給出休假時間。而且喬布斯的詳細(xì)病情也不得而知，導(dǎo)致外界猜測他是胰腺癌復(fù)發(fā)，或者兩年前移植的肝臟發(fā)生排斥反應(yīng)。即使喬布斯這次的病能夠治好，一些分析師也猜測，蘋果首席運(yùn)營官庫克將在年內(nèi)被任命為正式的首席執(zhí)行官。這次庫克再度臨危受命，在喬布斯離開公司期間負(fù)責(zé)日常運(yùn)營工作。 從大局考慮，喬布斯的健康狀況是頭等大事。但我們也需考慮它對蘋果這家最令人敬佩的電子公司的潛在影響。喬布斯是一位天才和魔術(shù)師，他兩次把蘋果帶到了高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的領(lǐng)先位置，不只一次。蘋果曾與喬布斯分道揚(yáng)鑣，但在喬布斯離開公司期間，該公司一事無成，那是失去的十年。從各方面來看，庫克都是一位稱職的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，在某些方面，他已經(jīng)在主持大局。但庫克，以及其他幾乎所有人，都有一個重大缺陷：他根本不是喬布斯。如果喬布斯的身體狀況使其永遠(yuǎn)不可能再回來擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官，蘋果可能遭受不計(jì)其數(shù)的損失。我們列出其中最大的五個損失。 蘋果需要喬布斯的五大理由 蘋果公司的首席執(zhí)行官喬布斯在1月17日發(fā)給員工的備忘錄中表示，他已請病假，這是24個月來的第二次。但他仍然擔(dān)任公司的首席執(zhí)行官，繼續(xù)參與戰(zhàn)略決策。喬布斯表示希望能夠盡快重返工作崗位，但沒有給出回歸時間表。 喬布斯的詳細(xì)病情沒有披露。喬布斯2004年切除了一個長在胰腺上的癌性腫瘤，并在2009年進(jìn)行了肝臟移植手術(shù)，當(dāng)時他病休六個月。有些人猜測，喬布斯最近這次病休，可能意味著他的身體排斥移植肝臟，或者是他的癌癥復(fù)發(fā)了。 蘋果的首席運(yùn)營官庫克將在喬布斯請假期間負(fù)責(zé)公司的日常運(yùn)營。2009年喬布斯休假的時候，庫克也曾充當(dāng)同樣的角色。在庫克代理喬布斯的職務(wù)期間，地球照常旋轉(zhuǎn)，蘋果繼續(xù)收獲不錯的利潤。沒有理由認(rèn)為這次會有所不同。 但是，喬布斯的健康問題以及他能否歸來并不確定，迫使蘋果員工、投資者和蘋果迷面對不可想象的結(jié)果：蘋果可能失去喬布斯。 “我們認(rèn)為，顯然，喬布斯作為業(yè)內(nèi)的創(chuàng)新者是不可替代的，但他現(xiàn)在有比擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官更急迫的事情，” Gleacher & Co.的分析師Brian Marshall表示，“經(jīng)營一家年?duì)I業(yè)收入達(dá)1000億美元的大公司，同時還得定期請病假，這對于任何人來說都不公平。庫克以前代理首席執(zhí)行官時表現(xiàn)很完美，我們預(yù)計(jì)他今年將成為蘋果公司的正式首席執(zhí)行官，喬布斯可能充當(dāng)高級顧問?！?

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“如果出于某些原因喬布斯無法歸來，最合理的繼任者就是庫克，”咨詢公司Creative Strategies Inc.的總裁Tim Bajarin表示，“你不能隨便從其它行業(yè)或其它公司找一個人來擔(dān)任蘋果的首席執(zhí)行官，并希望他們能理解蘋果的文化、蘋果的思想和蘋果的做事方式。他們曾經(jīng)嘗試過?！? 庫克長期以來就被視為喬布斯的繼任者。雖然他已證明自己是有才能的和受尊敬的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，但庫克和其他所有的人一樣，存在一個重大缺陷：他不是喬布斯。 不論公平與否，電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中沒有任何一個首席執(zhí)行官，像喬布斯那樣事關(guān)公司的命運(yùn)。他兩次把蘋果帶到了高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的領(lǐng)先位置，而不是一次。蘋果受人矚目，部分緣于喬布斯身上的光環(huán)。在PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展初期，喬布斯創(chuàng)建了蘋果公司，并在該公司失去方向的時候力挽狂瀾。 盡管如此，Bajarin認(rèn)為蘋果由庫克執(zhí)掌，同時公司還有強(qiáng)大的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)，蘋果不會有什么閃失，尤其是在短期之內(nèi)。他指出，按照蘋果的公司結(jié)構(gòu)，其他高管已經(jīng)在向庫克匯報工作。 “喬布斯過去五年所做的事情，就是打造了一支優(yōu)秀的管理隊(duì)伍，這些高管的能力很強(qiáng)，即使喬布斯不在，也能指引蘋果前進(jìn)，”他說。他還指出，蘋果開始開發(fā)的產(chǎn)品，一般是在三、四年后投入市場，這意味著蘋果的2011、2012甚至2013年部分時間的產(chǎn)品，“已經(jīng)規(guī)劃好了并帶有喬布斯的色彩?！? 但喬布斯是獨(dú)一無二的。萬一健康原因使其永遠(yuǎn)離開蘋果，則該公司可能在所有方面受到打擊。以下列舉五個方面： ［轉(zhuǎn)下一頁：喬布斯成功的關(guān)鍵］

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• 調(diào)查與觀點(diǎn)：如果沒有了Jobs，蘋果還能再創(chuàng)輝煌嗎？
• 蘋果CEO病休引發(fā)業(yè)界猜測，回歸時間成迷
• iPhone帶動觸控面板熱潮持續(xù)到2011年ovxesmc

{pagination} 洞察力 蘋果沒有發(fā)明個人電腦、MP3播放器、智能手機(jī)和平板電腦。但有喬布斯坐鎮(zhèn)，蘋果徹底重新定義了所有這些產(chǎn)品，突出了技術(shù)、工業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)和用戶體驗(yàn)。 這并不是說蘋果只有喬布斯這么一個聰明人?！拔蚁胝f的是，不僅這支(蘋果)團(tuán)隊(duì)完全理解(喬布斯的)遠(yuǎn)見，而且現(xiàn)在蘋果是一臺潤滑良好的機(jī)器，” Bajarin表示。 難以知道，如果蘋果由其他人掌舵，該公司是否還能繼續(xù)在電子產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域引領(lǐng)潮流。但眾所周知的是，喬布斯對新產(chǎn)品有著極其敏感的感覺。蘋果的許多新產(chǎn)品都保持秘而不宣，其中一個原因是無人知道公司會遇到什么情況，直到宣布前的最后一刻，喬布斯選出他相信將取得成功的那些產(chǎn)品。 喬布斯還與好萊塢和硅谷有關(guān)系，這使其能夠與利用iTunes建立數(shù)字音樂事業(yè)(蘋果是美國市場的主要音樂發(fā)行者)，并與電影公司和發(fā)行商簽署了許多內(nèi)容協(xié)議，增強(qiáng)了蘋果iPod、 iPhone和iPad的吸引力。他的主旨演講經(jīng)常吸引內(nèi)容及芯片伙伴公司的高管，這些人幾乎像普通消費(fèi)者一樣對喬布斯崇拜得五體投地。

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驅(qū)動力 在蘋果位于美國加州庫珀蒂諾的總部，喬布斯?fàn)I造了一種緊迫感文化。前蘋果員工透露，蘋果的工作道德極高，所以，午夜以后仍然可以經(jīng)?？吹饺栽诠ぷ鞯膯T工。喬布斯積極進(jìn)取和勇往直前的性格，苛刻的個性，是硅谷的談資。 “無疑，喬布斯是難以置信的驅(qū)動者，” Bajarin表示，“但憑心而論，驅(qū)動蘋果員工的似乎是某種更高的追求——創(chuàng)造偉大的產(chǎn)品。即使沒有喬布斯這樣的啦啦隊(duì)隊(duì)長，蘋果員工也知道自己應(yīng)該干什么。我認(rèn)為這種情況不會改變。” 據(jù)Bajarin，喬布斯成功的關(guān)鍵在于他對設(shè)計(jì)的獨(dú)到眼光，以及他是一位偉大的技術(shù)人員這個事實(shí)。他注意到，微軟創(chuàng)使人蓋茨幾年前曾在《華爾街日報》撰文間接提到這種罕見的組合。“盡管喬布斯指派(負(fù)責(zé)工業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)的蘋果高級副總裁) Jonathan Ive負(fù)責(zé)這項(xiàng)重要工作，但顯然他知道如何才能使產(chǎn)品既好看又易于使用，” Bajarin表示，“這很少見。我不知道科技產(chǎn)業(yè)還有哪位首席執(zhí)行官同時擁有上述兩種特質(zhì)。”

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［轉(zhuǎn)下一頁：推介能力強(qiáng)于其他人總和］

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 調(diào)查與觀點(diǎn)：如果沒有了Jobs，蘋果還能再創(chuàng)輝煌嗎？
• 蘋果CEO病休引發(fā)業(yè)界猜測，回歸時間成迷
• iPhone帶動觸控面板熱潮持續(xù)到2011年ovxesmc

{pagination} 表現(xiàn)力 這些天，有許多科技公司的首席執(zhí)行官登臺向觀眾介紹酷炫的新產(chǎn)品，以及他們公司向市場推出的創(chuàng)新性。喬布斯只是其中的一位，但他的推介能力比其他人加起來都強(qiáng)。身穿其標(biāo)志性的黑色高領(lǐng)絨套衫，大步走上舞臺，手持蘋果的最新發(fā)明，喬布斯擁有神奇的能力讓它看起來絕對是世界上最酷的產(chǎn)品。他是一位卓越的推銷員，用幾個精心選擇的短語就能創(chuàng)造用戶需求。他有獨(dú)特的辦法來煽動蘋果迷的熱情，他的主旨演講和產(chǎn)品介紹感覺就像是雅皮士復(fù)興布道會。 Bajarin承認(rèn)，其他任何人，包括庫克在內(nèi)，在個性和才能方面都難以取代喬布斯。但他表示，上周蘋果和Verizon推出用于Verizon網(wǎng)絡(luò)的iPhone，在這個活動上他遇到了庫克。他注意到，庫克確實(shí)擁有舞臺表現(xiàn)力?！拔铱朔松鲜鱿敕?，認(rèn)為這個人對蘋果的控制力要大于人們的想像，” Bajarin表示。

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追星族俱樂部 蘋果被恰當(dāng)?shù)孛枋鰹橐粋€擁有股票代碼的教派。蘋果迷狂熱地想成為蘋果追隨者。除了搶購蘋果推出的每款新產(chǎn)品，蘋果一族還在網(wǎng)上網(wǎng)下宣傳這些產(chǎn)品，積極參加蘋果的各項(xiàng)活動，為喬布斯的每句話歡呼。喬布斯是這個團(tuán)隊(duì)無可爭議的最高領(lǐng)袖，而且有理由相信蘋果迷將會熱情接受喬布斯的繼任者，尤其是在開始的時候。(假設(shè)蘋果繼續(xù)推出改變世界的創(chuàng)新性產(chǎn)品，該公司的下任首席執(zhí)行官應(yīng)該能夠最終贏得這些蘋果迷的支持。) ［轉(zhuǎn)下一頁：股票價格下搓］

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 調(diào)查與觀點(diǎn)：如果沒有了Jobs，蘋果還能再創(chuàng)輝煌嗎？
• 蘋果CEO病休引發(fā)業(yè)界猜測，回歸時間成迷
• iPhone帶動觸控面板熱潮持續(xù)到2011年ovxesmc

{pagination} 股票價格 蘋果在馬丁路德金紀(jì)念日公布喬布斯的病休消息，當(dāng)天美國股市休市。但蘋果股票在一些外國股市據(jù)說下挫了5%以上。 美國股市周二開市，蘋果股票迅速下滑逾6%，截止到本文發(fā)稿，其跌幅縮小至下跌3.3%，相當(dāng)于下跌11美元以上(本文發(fā)出后，其股價進(jìn)一步反彈)。關(guān)鍵問題：蘋果投資者擔(dān)心喬布斯離開蘋果。 華爾街把喬布斯看作是蘋果的貴人。蘋果股價在2008年12月和2009年1月也曾下跌，當(dāng)時市場風(fēng)傳喬布斯健康問題，蘋果在1月中旬宣布其病休。但到喬布斯在當(dāng)年6月末恢復(fù)工作時，蘋果股票已從1月中旬的低點(diǎn)上漲了90%，因?yàn)樘O果繼續(xù)前進(jìn)。(當(dāng)然，2008年末發(fā)生金融危機(jī)，各地股市都急劇下滑，2009年才開始反彈，蘋果股票的漲落也與此有關(guān)。)

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本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！ 參考原文：Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs, Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt

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• 蘋果CEO病休引發(fā)業(yè)界猜測，回歸時間成迷
• iPhone帶動觸控面板熱潮持續(xù)到2011年ovxesmc

{pagination} Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs, Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt Apple CEO Steve Jobs' latest medical leave—his second in 24 months—forces Apple employees, investors and fans to contemplate a grim scenario: Apple without Steve Jobs. Unlike 2009, when Jobs put a six month timetable on his leave, there is no schedule this time around. There are also no details on Jobs' medical condition, causing pundits to speculate that he may have suffered a relapse of pancreatic cancer or that his body is rejecting the transplanted liver he received two years ago. Even if Jobs successfully overcomes his latest ailment, some analysts are speculating that Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, who will again be responsible for Apple's day-to-day operations in Jobs' absence, will be named permanent CEO before the year is out. In the grand scheme of things, Jobs' health is the primary concern. But practically demands that we also contemplate the potential impact on one of electronics most revered companies. Jobs is a genius and magician who has hoisted Apple to the forefront of the high-tech world not once but twice. Apple already parted ways with Jobs once—a lost decade in which the company did little of note. By all accounts, Cook is an able leader who is already in some ways running the show. But Cook—along with nearly everyone else—has one major flaw: He is simply not Steve Jobs. Should Jobs' health prevent him from permanently returning as CEO, the company is likely to suffer in countless ways. We've put together a list of five of the biggest. Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt Apple CEO Steve Jobs is now on medical leave for the second time in 24 months, saying in a memo to Apple employees Monday (Jan. 17) that he would remain CEO and continue to be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. Jobs said he hopes to return as soon as he can, but provided no timetable. The details of Jobs' medical condition have not been revealed. Jobs had a cancerous tumor removed from his pancreas in 2004 and underwent a liver transplant in 2009, when he also took a medical leave for six months. Some have speculated that Jobs' latest medical leave could mean that his body is rejecting the transplanted liver or that his cancer has returned. Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer, will be responsible for Apple's day to day operations in Jobs' absence. Cook filled the same role when Jobs took leave in 2009—the earth continued to rotate and Apple continued to reap healthy profits. There is no reason to suggest it will be any different this time. But, callous as it may seem, Jobs' health issues—and the uncertainty of his return—force Apple employees, investors and fans to confront the unthinkable: The possibility of Apple without Steve Jobs. "Obviously Jobs is irreplaceable as the industry's innovator, but he has more pressing matters today than being CEO of [Apple], in our view," said Brian Marshall, an analyst at Gleacher & Co. "Running a $100 billion annual revenue company while being forced to take periodic medical leaves is not fair to anyone. Cook has performed flawlessly in the past as [Apple's] interim CEO and we expect he will become the full-time CEO of Apple this year with Jobs hopefully serving as a senior advisor." "If for some reason Steve could not return, the most logical successor would be Tim," said Tim Bajarin, president of consulting firm Creative Strategies Inc. "You can't just bring somebody from another industry or another company into overseeing Apple as CEO and hope they will understand Apple's culture, Apple's mentality and Apple's way of doing things. They already tried that once." Cook has long been considered Jobs' heir apparent. And while he has proven himself a capable and well-respected leader, Cook—along with nearly everyone else—has one major flaw: He is not Steve Jobs. Fairly or not, no CEO in electronics is considered to be as critical to his or her company's fortunes as Jobs, who has hoisted Apple to the forefront of the high-tech world not once but twice. Apple commands a premium in part because of the aura around its returned founder who was there at the beginning of the PC industry and reinvigorated the company when it had lost its way. Still, Bajarin argues that Apple would be in good hands with Cook and the rest of the company's deep management team—particularly in the short term. He noted that under Apple's corporate structure, the rest of the executives already report up through Cook. "What Jobs has done over the past five years is assemble an amazing team of executives who are very strong and capable of directing Apple even if Steve was not there," he said. He added that Apple begins creating its products three to four years before they are put into the marketplace, meaning that Apple's products for 2011, 2012 and even part of 2013 "will have already been cast and had Steve's input." Still, Jobs is one of a kind. In the event that Jobs' health issues prevent him from returning permanently, the company is likely to suffer in countless ways. Here are five of them: The vision Apple did not invent the personal computer, the MP3 player, the smartphone or the tablet computer. But, with Jobs at the helm, it dramatically redefined all of them with an emphasis on technology, industrial design and user experience. Not to say that Jobs is the only smart person working at Apple. "I would argue that not only is this [Apple] team more than capable of understanding [Jobs'] vision, but Apple is by now a pretty well oiled machine," Bajarin said. It's impossible to know whether the company could continue to set the bar in electronic products with someone else calling the shots. But what is well known is that Jobs has an extremely keen new product sense. One reason why Apple keeps many of its product launches under wraps is that no one knows what the company will run with until the last minute before an announcement, when Jobs picks the products he believes will win in the market. Jobs also has ties to Hollywood and Silicon Valley that have enabled him to build a digital music business with iTunes (Apple is the leading music distributor in the U.S.) as well as secure deals with studios and publishers for content that makes the company's iPods, iPhones and iPads engaging. His keynotes are often attended by senior executives of content and chip partners that seem to venerate him almost as much as the buying public. The drive At Apple headquarter in Cupertino, Calif., Jobs drives a driven culture. Former employees report that the work ethic at Apple is so high that it's not unusual to see employees at their desks after midnight. Jobs' aggressive, hard-charging nature and demanding personality are the stuff of Silicon Valley lore. "There is no question that Steve is an incredible motivator," Bajarin said. "But to be fair, the people at Apple seem to be motivated by somewhat of a higher cause—which is to create great products. Even if Steve wan't there as a cheerleader, these guys know what they are supposed to do. I just don't see that changing." According to Bajarin, the keys to Jobs' success are his eye for design and the fact that he is a great technologist. He noted that Microsoft Corp. Founder Bill Gates alluded to this rare combination in an article published in the Wall Street Journal years ago. "Even though Jobs has [Apple Senior Vice President of Industrial Design] Jonathan Ive doing the heavy lifting, he clearly has a real idea of what it takes to make something not only look good but easy to use," Bajarin said. "That's very rare. I don't know of any other CEO in the tech world who has that combination." The showmanship These days, Jobs isn't the only tech CEO who steps up on stage before a captive audience to describe the cool new products and innovations that his company is bringing to market. But Jobs does it with more flair than the rest of them put together. Striding the stage in his trademark black turtle neck, holding Apple's latest invention, Jobs has the uncanny ability to make it seem like absolutely the coolest thing in the entire world. The consummate salesman, Jobs creates user demand with a few well chosen phrases. And he can whip up the Apple faithful like no one else—his keynotes and product introductions can feel like yuppie revival meetings. Bajarin acknowledged that it would be impossible for anyone—including Cook—to replace Jobs in term of persona and flair. But he said that he was with Cook last week Apple and Verizon introduced the iPhone for the Verizon network and noted that Cook has a real stage presence. "I walked away from that thinking that this guy is much more in control of Apple than people think," Bajarin said. The fan club Apple has aptly been described as a cult with a stock ticker symbol. Apple enthusiasts are fanatical about being Apple enthusiasts. In addition to buying every new Apple gadget that hits the market, Apple Nation evangelizes them online and in the real world, packs Apple events and cheers Jobs' every word. Jobs is this group's unquestioned Supreme Leader, and there is reason to doubt that Apple fans would embrace Jobs' successor quite as warmly—especially at first. (That said, assuming that Apple continues to churn out innovations that change the world, the company's next CEO should be able to win this group over eventually.) The stock price Apple released the news of Jobs' leave on Martin Luther King Day, when U.S. stock markets were closed. But Apple's stock reportedly fell more than five percent in some foreign markets. When U.S. markets opened Tuesday, Apple's stock promptly dropped by more than 6 percent before recovering to trade down 3.3 percent, or more than $11 per share, as of this posting (it has sense recovered further). Bottom line: Apple investors are squeamish about the possibility of a Jobs-less Apple. Wall Street sees Jobs as Apple's golden guy. Apple's stock also tanked in December 2008 and January 2009 as rumors of Jobs' health concerns circulated and Apple announced his medical leave in mid-January. But by the time Jobs returned to work in late June of that year, Apple's stock had increased in value 90 percent from a mid-January low as Apple continued rolling along. (Of course, this rise and fall occurred following the financial meltdown of late 2008, when markets declined dramatically before beginning to recover as 2009 unfolded).