英特爾(Intel)與 ARM 目前已經(jīng)在系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域正面沖突，誰會(huì)勝出？有分析師認(rèn)為英特爾贏面仍大，但也有分析師不這么認(rèn)為。 “到目前為止，英特爾一直沒趕上超移動(dòng)(ultramobile)市場(chǎng)的熱潮，看來在 2011年也無法取得這方面的動(dòng)力。”投資顧問機(jī)構(gòu)Piper Jaffray 的分析師Auguste Gus Richard在最近發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告中指出：“英特爾的問題是，越來越多軟件開發(fā)商將焦點(diǎn)集中在 ARM 平臺(tái)，隨著這股力量不斷成長(zhǎng)，相關(guān)應(yīng)用程序日益增加，英特爾越來越難扭轉(zhuǎn)市場(chǎng)的方向?！? 還有另一個(gè)問題是：“我們不看好英特爾的32納米智能手機(jī)處理器平臺(tái)Medfield能在2011上半年問世，或是在2011年、甚至2012年取得顯著的市占率。我們知道英特爾正拋棄舊有x86架構(gòu)的功能，以降低未來產(chǎn)品的功耗，但不清楚那會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)在Medfield上，或是更下一代產(chǎn)品?！? 他補(bǔ)充指出：“我們認(rèn)為英特爾可能已經(jīng)放棄舊有x86架構(gòu)、或是在SoC設(shè)計(jì)上有顯著的改良，好提升產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力；但我們也認(rèn)為，超移動(dòng)時(shí)代列車已經(jīng)駛離車站，可是英特爾到現(xiàn)在還沒有搭上車?！? 不過英特爾仍然在某些方面保有領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。Jaffray 表示：“我們預(yù)期ARM最新A15核心的領(lǐng)先授權(quán)客戶，會(huì)在2011年第一季末左右投片；ARM陣營的32納米芯片量產(chǎn)時(shí)程，則是會(huì)在2012年，屆時(shí)英特爾已經(jīng)前進(jìn)至22納米。英特爾仍在制造技術(shù)方面跑在前頭，ARM則是在行動(dòng)處理器架構(gòu)上領(lǐng)先。 “同時(shí)我們也相信，假以時(shí)日，英特爾的制程優(yōu)勢(shì)仍能推動(dòng)產(chǎn)品性能上的優(yōu)勢(shì)，但這不太可能會(huì)在2011年發(fā)生。其Moorestown平臺(tái)的市場(chǎng)滲透率不佳，主因是功耗太高；該平臺(tái)是雙芯片解決方案，包括一顆45納米的Atom處理器芯片，以及65納米的I/O芯片?！盝affray補(bǔ)充，I/O會(huì)消耗大部分的功率，而組合式方案在手機(jī)市場(chǎng)不太可能取得成功。 新一代的Medfield手機(jī)處理器，將會(huì)把I/O功能整合進(jìn)處理器芯片，采用32納米制程；這可望有效改善功耗問題并提升性能。但Jaffray指出，Medfield預(yù)期要到2011年中以后才會(huì)問世，而采用該芯片的產(chǎn)品可能會(huì)延至2012年才誕生。 英特爾的另一個(gè)麻煩，是整體 PC 市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)速度趨緩：“隨著平板裝置當(dāng)紅，我們估計(jì)PC出貨量平均年成長(zhǎng)率，會(huì)在接下來幾年從12%降到5%；但我們也認(rèn)為PC產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格會(huì)在連續(xù)20年每年下滑8%之后，開始維持穩(wěn)定。我們預(yù)測(cè)PC市場(chǎng)與英特爾的營收，接下來都會(huì)維持中等個(gè)位數(shù)的成長(zhǎng)，除非該公司的發(fā)展腳步能超越整體市場(chǎng)?！? 編譯：Judith Cheng,臺(tái)灣《電子工程專輯》 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載！ 查閱原文：《Analyst: Intel missed mobile boat》

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{pagination} Analyst: Intel missed mobile boat Mark LaPedus ARM Holdings plc and Intel Corp. are on a collision course in the systems space.The winner? Intel, according to one analyst. Another analyst disagreed. "So far, Intel is missing the wave in the ultramobile market and is not likely to gain traction in 2011," said Auguste Gus Richard, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, in a recent report. ''The issue for Intel is that software developers are increasingly focusing on ARM platforms. As this momentum grows and the number of applications grows it makes it more difficult for Intel to turn the market in its direction.'' There are other issues. "We do not expect Intel's 32-nm Medfield platform for smartphones, expected in 1H:11, to gain significant share in 2011 and perhaps 2012. We understand Intel is dropping legacy x86 features in order to lower power consumption in future products, but it is not clear if this is Medfield or the next generation,'' he said. ''We think Intel may have to abandon its legacy x86 architecture or significantly improve its SoC design capability to be competitive. We think the train is leaving the station in the ultramobile era and so far Intel is not on board." Intel, however, is leading in some respects. ''We expect that the lead customers for ARM's new A15 core to tape-out around the end of Q1:11. We expect the ARM camp to be in production at 32-nm in 2012 as Intel is moving to 22-nm. Intel leads in manufacturing and ARM leads in mobile architecture,'' he said. "While we believe over time Intel's process advantage could drive a performance advantage, we do not think this is likely to occur in 2011. Moorestown is facing tough market acceptance due to high power consumption. Moorestown is a two chip solution with the Atom processor (45-nm) on one chip and the I/O (65-nm) on the other," he said. "We understand that the I/O consumes a lot of power and the combination is not likely to be successful in the mobile phone market. The Medfield mobile processor will integrate the I/O with the processor and will be implemented in 32-nm. This will likely significantly improve power consumption and performance. Medfield is not expected until mid-2011, and we would not expect Medfield based products to enter the market until 2012," he said. The other problem for Intel? The PC market is slowing. "We expect PC unit growth to decline from 12 percent to 5 percent over the next several years as tablets gain momentum. However, we also expect PC prices to stabilize after 20 years of an 8 percent annual decline. The net is we expect PC and Intel's revenue to grow mid single digits unless the company can move beyond the PC market," he said.