一位資深工程師表示，Google、Apple或一家明智的新創(chuàng)公司，都有可能把英特爾(Intel)從搖搖欲墜的全球最大微處理器供貨商寶座上推下來。 以上是即將在近日舉行之Hot Chips大會上發(fā)表一篇論文的微處理器設計領域老將Dave Ditzel，在接受筆者專訪時針對微處理器市場所發(fā)表的看法；Ditzel曾任職升陽(Sun Microsystems)并主導開發(fā)Sparc處理器，后來創(chuàng)辦了知名的全美達(Transmeta)、設計x86架構芯片。 再后來，Ditzel曾在英特爾待了短暫時間負責一款處理器設計，該設計案卻被新首席執(zhí)行官Brian Krzanich腰斬；因此Ditzel在處理器領域經(jīng)驗老道，也有一些比較悲觀的看法。 Ditzel 認為，Google有可能因為與IBM在OpenPower聯(lián)盟的合作，使得英特爾的x86處理器在服務器市場的地位受到?jīng)_擊；而如果Google如果能 針對自家數(shù)據(jù)中心量身打造一款客制化Power處理器，就有機會節(jié)省大筆金錢并取得一定程度的每瓦性能進展。 據(jù)了解，Google最近一直在招募電路設計師以及其他職務類別的芯片工程師，該公司的數(shù)據(jù)中心服務器技術高層主管也是OpenPower聯(lián)盟的主事者，并曾展示客制化的Power處理器主板設計。Google確實是勇于嘗試各種事情也有大筆現(xiàn)金可運用，而Ditzel的看法也指出了Google有動機做某件事，可能使得一年銷售上億顆的英特爾Xeon處理器市場地位不保。 而若 Google真如Ditzel所言投入了自家處理器的開發(fā)，其他大型數(shù)據(jù)中心營運商如Amazon、Facebook等也可能群起效尤；這些營運商對全球服務器市場的貢獻高達兩成。 此外Ditzel表示，Apple可能在不久的將來，自行開發(fā)為MacBook Air量身打造的A系列處理器，一旦該公司開始在Mac OS平臺產(chǎn)品使用自家處理器，該芯片有可能廣泛應用到其他Mac系列筆記本電腦，甚至是臺式機。這或許對英特爾來說不足以顛覆市場，但會代表著該公司 在x86處理器市場的另一次損失。 Ditzel還指出，新創(chuàng)公司有很多機會能在現(xiàn)今的微處理器市場闖出一番事業(yè)：“大多數(shù)主流處理器設計活動已經(jīng)幾乎停滯，大型公司做不出來，因為他們已經(jīng)失去了開發(fā)新架構的能力?！彼蛟S是想到了被腰斬的那個設計案… 而他認為，由于大多數(shù)軟件缺乏平行化能力，多核心處理器設計已經(jīng)后繼無力；不過在新一代處理器方面，還是有幾個值得嘗試的機會，其一是設計出第一款3D堆棧 架構的處理器──目前Ditzel正在與專長電感耦合芯片對芯片通信技術的一家新創(chuàng)公司ThruChip Communications，進行這個題材的研發(fā)合作。 至于今年的Hot Chips 大會還會有什么熱門議題？Ditzel的看法與分析師Kevin Krewell不謀而合，表示Nvidia一直守口如瓶的、代號Denver的研發(fā)項目會是大熱門：“沒人知道該項目的細節(jié)，這一次應該會是首度大公開?！? Denver被認為是Nvidia的首款通用處理器架構，原本有人預期是x86架構，但據(jù)了解它可能是64位ARM核心處理器；不過在這個眾家處理器供貨商包括英特爾老對手AMD，紛紛加入ARM的此刻，Denver以長期眼光來看似乎也不具顛覆性。 PC 市場成長趨緩，英特爾的市場地位確是岌岌可危；而且該公司在高通(Qualcomm)稱霸的手機處理器芯片市場一直沒有突破性的進展?，F(xiàn) 在，Google、甚至是任何一家還在臺面下的新創(chuàng)公司，或是RISC-V架構處理器開發(fā)商，都有機會顛覆微處理器市場，且讓我們拭目以待！ 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：Will Google or Apple Disrupt Intel?，by Rick Merritt {pagination} Will Google or Apple Disrupt Intel? Rick Merritt, SiliconValley Bureau Chief Google, Apple, or a smart startup could disrupt Intel, which increasingly looks awkwardly poised as the world's largest maker of microprocessors. That's the view of Dave Ditzel, a veteran microprocessor designer. I talked to him about the microprocessor landscape after an interview for his upcoming paper at Hot Chips. Ditzel led Sparc designs at the former Sun Microsystems before founding his own startup, Transmeta, that designed an x86-compatible chip. Most recently, he spent a little time at Intel on a microprocessor design that apparently got the axe from Brian Krzanich, Intel's new CEO. So he's been around the block and has something of an underdog's perspective. Google may undermine Intel's x86 in servers with its work with IBM on the OpenPower Consortium, Ditzel said, and he makes a good case. The search company could probably save a lot of money and maybe even gain some performance/watt advantages if it could come up with a custom Power design for its data centers. We know from seeing job reqs that Google has been hiring circuit designers and other kinds of chip engineers. Google's head of data center server technology leads the OpenPower group and has shown custom Power board designs. I'm skeptical because I know Google tries everything and has the cash to do it. Nevertheless, Ditzel helped me see it also has the motive to make something real here that could deprive Intel of many hundreds of thousands of Xeon sales a year. If Google gets something working, it might motivate Amazon, Facebook, and other big data center companies to follow. These folks represent 20% of the server business -- the hungry 20%. Apple could put one of its next-generation A-series SoCs in a MacBook Air in the not-too-distant future, Ditzel said. Once it got the SoC up and running on its full Mac OS, it could easily spread use of the chip to other Mac notebooks and eventually desktops. That's not a game changer for Intel, but it's another loss of x86 sockets and part of a scenario of death by a thousand cuts. Finally, Ditzel said there's ample opportunity for a startup to do something really kick butt in microprocessors these days. "Most of mainstream microprocessor design has slowed to a crawl. It's not happening at big companies, because they have lost the ability to design new architectures," he said, perhaps unconsciously thinking about his last project. Multicore designs are running out of gas, given the lack of parallelism in most software. Nevertheless, "there are several really interesting opportunities for new microprocessors." One path is in designing the first SoC from the ground up for 3D stacks, he said. No surprise there, given Ditzel is now working with ThruChip Communications, a startup with an inductive coupling technique for chip-to-chip communications. When asked about what will be hot at Hot Chips -- beyond his paper -- Ditzel agreed with analyst Kevin Krewell, who said in a Hot Chips preview that a paper about Nvidia's long-secret Project Denver will be hot. "No one knows the details yet, but it looks like this may be first big disclosure," Ditzel said. "It's been a long time coming." The project, believed to be Nvidia's first general-purpose CPU, was expected to be x86-based but now is reportedly a 64-bit ARM SoC. In this era when so many companies, including Intel's old rival AMD, are jumping on the ARM bandwagon for everything from mobile systems to servers, Denver may not be that disruptive in the long run. There's no doubt Intel is on shaky ground, given its core PC market has slowed to a crawl, and the company still has not made significant progress in hot mobile markets where Qualcomm is king. For now, I'm keeping my eyes on Google, some still stealthy startup, or maybe those RISC-V folks at Berkeley for the next big disruption in microprocessors.