如果要說剛落幕的 2014年度全球移動(dòng)通信大會(huì)(MWC)透露了產(chǎn)業(yè)界哪些發(fā)展線索，筆者認(rèn)為其中一個(gè)就是低價(jià)手機(jī)市場(chǎng)又重新成為鎂光燈焦點(diǎn)。曾經(jīng)一飛沖天的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)著陸，而搭載各種花俏功能的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)火也逐漸消退，現(xiàn)在手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的煙硝味來自于過去被稱為功能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域。 根 據(jù)IDC的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)速度已經(jīng)明顯趨緩；該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)期，全球智能手機(jī)出貨量成長(zhǎng)率將在今年大幅減少，并在2018年之前都保持緩慢 增速，而且產(chǎn)品平均價(jià)格也將明顯下滑。IDC估計(jì)，在2013年取得39.2%成長(zhǎng)率、銷售量超過10億支的全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)，2014年的成長(zhǎng)率將減 少至19.3%，到2018年更進(jìn)一步僅剩6.2%。

各種平臺(tái)智能手機(jī)平均售價(jià)與成長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)
Source：IDC3wEesmc

在此市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)之下，仍有待觀察的是，總是積極提升產(chǎn)品性能的芯片供貨商與手機(jī)廠商們，是否已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好因應(yīng)？更重要的是，他們是否也想涉足針對(duì)首次智能手機(jī)用戶的新一代低價(jià)智能手機(jī)產(chǎn)品？ 仔細(xì)觀察各個(gè)價(jià)格區(qū)間的智能手機(jī)銷售量，可明顯看到低價(jià)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率有越來越高的趨勢(shì)。IDC市場(chǎng)分析師Francisco Jeronimo日前曾表示，去年100美元以下智能手機(jī)銷售量成長(zhǎng)近三倍，達(dá)到1.59億支；該銷售量數(shù)字在2012年為4,540萬支；而50美元 以下手機(jī)的銷售成長(zhǎng)速度更快，由2012年的90萬支，增加到2013年的1,950萬支。 許多市場(chǎng)觀察家都預(yù)見智能手機(jī) 市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)大幅變動(dòng)；IDC研究計(jì)劃總監(jiān)Ryan Reith就表示，2014年將是“智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)大轉(zhuǎn)折”的一年；他表示：“不僅市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)速度將出現(xiàn)前所未有的減緩，推升智能手機(jī)滲透率的背后動(dòng)力也 在改變；新的市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力帶來不同的游戲規(guī)則，高價(jià)產(chǎn)品不再是那些推動(dòng)整體市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)之區(qū)域市場(chǎng)的主角。” 新的市場(chǎng)游戲規(guī)則 說到新市場(chǎng)游戲規(guī)則，就不能忽視在今年MWC期間Firefox與中國(guó)手機(jī)芯片業(yè)者展訊(Spreadtrum)共同宣布，將催生25美元廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)的消息。相較起來，諾基亞(Nokia)發(fā)表Android平臺(tái)手機(jī)Nokia X的消息似乎不那么值得注意，該款新手機(jī)(售價(jià)122美元)恐怕難以讓該公司達(dá)成“再創(chuàng)下一波10億用戶”的目標(biāo)。 大多數(shù)對(duì)25美元 Firefox OS 智能手機(jī)的報(bào)導(dǎo)雖不負(fù)面、也都不冷不熱，多數(shù)讀者的反應(yīng)也差不多；西方市場(chǎng)觀察家似乎對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的 實(shí)際情況非常生疏，在那些區(qū)域，人們可能沒有PC、不能上網(wǎng)、甚至沒有電話線，但他們能接取2G/2.5G移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(有一些區(qū)域有3G)。而有部分媒體則認(rèn)為25美元廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)的未來發(fā)展有限、就像其價(jià)格，或是認(rèn)為Firefox OS最終仍將往高階市場(chǎng)發(fā)展才能取得更大的成功。 Firefox 計(jì)劃與中國(guó)芯片業(yè)者展訊合作進(jìn)軍智能手機(jī)初次使用者市場(chǎng)，筆者認(rèn)為，此舉不僅將永遠(yuǎn)改變“功能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)”的定義，也將改變?nèi)藗儗?duì)智能手機(jī)的預(yù)期。以 25美元的產(chǎn)品零售價(jià)，F(xiàn)irefox與展訊的目標(biāo)是功能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)中一塊有相當(dāng)規(guī)模的領(lǐng)域，那也是Android手機(jī)迄今無法著墨的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：有了25美元智能手機(jī)，沒人會(huì)想要100美元PC了

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 在美國(guó)，都有哪些人在使用iPhone
• Firefox OS能否借助25美元廉價(jià)機(jī)打開局面？
• 70美元廉價(jià)手機(jī)席卷印度的“奧秘”3wEesmc

{pagination} IDC另一位市場(chǎng)分析師John Jackson指出，F(xiàn)irefox與展訊正將目標(biāo)謹(jǐn)慎地對(duì)準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)品價(jià)位低于大多數(shù)供貨商可以或敢以Android機(jī)種進(jìn)軍的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)域：“這兩家公司已經(jīng)開發(fā)出一個(gè)平臺(tái)，能讓它們著墨50美元以下手機(jī)市場(chǎng)。”

各種平臺(tái)智能手機(jī)出貨量與市占率估計(jì) (單位：百萬支)
Source：IDC3wEesmc

更 值得一提的是，F(xiàn)irefox開發(fā)商Mozilla已經(jīng)建立起一個(gè)正在發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)；在MWC期間，該公司發(fā)表了7款采用 Firefox OS 的手機(jī)，供貨商包括Alcatel Onetouch、華為(Huawei)、LG以及中興(ZTE)。支持 Firefox OS 的電信營(yíng)運(yùn)商也越來越多，Mozilla的Firefox OS裝置聯(lián)盟有21家世界各國(guó)電信營(yíng)運(yùn)商成員；如果該聯(lián)盟持續(xù)發(fā)展，就表示其策略取得成功，也可望讓該平臺(tái)在市場(chǎng)獲得重視。 一 旦25美元廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)不斷普及，將會(huì)對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)帶來重大的影響；而就如同一位產(chǎn)業(yè)界朋友所言，有了25美元智能手機(jī)，可能沒有人會(huì)想要100美元 PC了。幾年前發(fā)起的“一童一筆電(One Laptop Per Child)”行動(dòng)，期望藉由廉價(jià)PC拉攏開發(fā)中國(guó)家與先進(jìn)國(guó)家的數(shù)字鴻溝；藉由25美元廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)，該目標(biāo)更有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。 而 如果說25美元Firefox OS廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)還有什么問題，可能就是使用者的焦慮。無論是來自什么地方，應(yīng)該沒有消費(fèi)者會(huì)樂意接受僅有平凡無奇用戶體驗(yàn)的產(chǎn)品；市場(chǎng)上有太多智能手機(jī)擁有類似的外觀與功能，因此產(chǎn)品差異化的終極因素仍是來自于使用者體驗(yàn)，包括手機(jī)在提供上網(wǎng)、信息娛樂、短信發(fā)送、多媒體影音播放等應(yīng)用程序時(shí)，產(chǎn)品的電池續(xù)航力、性能、顯示器畫質(zhì)等表現(xiàn)。 當(dāng)然，對(duì)三星(Samsung)與蘋果(Apple)這樣的品牌業(yè)者來說，市場(chǎng) 仍有發(fā)揮的舞臺(tái)；但隨著智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)逐漸成熟，手機(jī)廠商與手機(jī)芯片業(yè)者將會(huì)感受到越來越大的壓力，必須去證明其硬件(包括價(jià)格)是符合用戶體驗(yàn)的。隨著低價(jià)智能手機(jī)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開打，廠商恐怕不能只靠手機(jī)內(nèi)的處理器核心數(shù)量來決一勝負(fù)。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：Validity of New Feature Phone Market，by Junko Yoshida

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• 在美國(guó)，都有哪些人在使用iPhone
• Firefox OS能否借助25美元廉價(jià)機(jī)打開局面？
• 70美元廉價(jià)手機(jī)席卷印度的“奧秘”3wEesmc

{pagination} Validity of New Feature Phone Market Junko Yoshida What once looked like a sky's-the-limit market for smartphones has been grounded. If this week's Mobile World Congress gave us any clue, low-cost mobile handsets are back in the spotlight. The battle over smartphones loaded with bells and whistles is fading. A new skirmish is emerging in the segment that used to be called feature phones. If anyone assumed that the industry's pundits and market research companies abandoned hope for feature phones a few years ago, well, not so fast. "The real significance" of the market for phones priced below $50 "is the validity of the addressable sub-today's-smartphone market," John Jackson, program vice president for mobility research at IDC, told us. "The precise size is debatable, but it'll be in the tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions." The Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker that IDC released Wednesday released confirms the significant slowdown in smartphone momentum. The research firm said growth in global smartphone shipments will fall sharply this year and keep slowing through 2018, with the average prices dropping significantly. Worldwide smartphone average selling price by region and five-year CAGR (in US dollars). The asterisks indicate forecast data. (Source: IDC) In fact, after 39.2% growth in 2013, when a billion smartphones were sold, the smartphone market will grow only 19.3% this year and 6.2% in 2018, IDC said. Against this backdrop, unanswered questions focus on whether chip vendors and handset OEMs -- which seem singularly intent on adding more MIPS to their hardware -- are prepared for the shifting landscape. More importantly, do they even want to play in the market for next-generation, low-cost smartphones aimed at first-time users? A closer look at smartphone sales by price range reveals a clear trend for higher market growth among cheaper phones. IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo told Reuters this week that "smartphone sales in the sub-$100 category alone more than tripled to hit 159 million last year from 45.4 million in 2012." The growth was even faster for phones costing less than $50 -- "up from just 900,000 in 2012 to 19.5 million last year." Many industry observers foresee a big shift in the smartphone market. Ryan Reith, program director with IDC, called 2014 "an enormous transition year for the smartphone market" in a press release on the quarterly report. "Not only will growth decline more than ever before, but the driving forces behind smartphone adoption are changing. New markets for growth bring different rules to play by and 'premium' will not be a major factor in the regions driving overall market growth." New rules When it comes to new rules, nobody dropped a bigger bombshell at the Mobile World Congress than Firefox and Spreadtrum. They announced an ambitious plan for $25 smartphones. The Nokia X, unveiled in Barcelona, was mildly interesting because Nokia is adding yet another platform to its mobile phone lineup and confusing the market. But the Nokia X (priced at $122) will likely fall far short of making progress toward the Finnish company's stated goal of going after the "next billion" users. Most of the initial news coverage of the $25 smartphones with Firefox OS unveiled at the Mobile World Congress was lukewarm, if not negative. So were many readers' first reactions. Western observers generally seemed out of touch with the reality of emerging markets -- where people still have no PCs, no Internet connectivity, and no landlines, but they have access to 2G and 2.5G services (up to 3G in some cases). Many reporters missed the mark by calling the $25 smartphone "as limited as its price suggests," or by insisting that "Firefox OS ultimately will have to go up-market if it's to succeed broadly." Firefox's plan to go after first-time smartphone users in collaboration with Spreadtrum, China's leading chip vendor, will change forever not only the definition of the feature phone market, but also what to be expected of smartphones. Dare take Android? At a retail price point of $25, the Firefox/Spreadtrum team is focused on capturing a sizable piece of the feature phone market -- one segment that Android phones haven't been able to address thus far. Firefox and Spreadtrum are "deliberately aiming lower than where most vendors can or will dare take Android at this point," Jackson said. "They have an evolved platform that will let them address price points well below $50." Worldwide smartphone forecast (in millions) by OS, shipments, and marketshare. The asterisks indicate forecast data. (Source: IDC) Even more noteworthy is the growing ecosystem that Mozilla has been able to build. At the Mobile World Congress, the company unveiled seven handsets running Firefox OS from device partners such as Alcatel Onetouch, Huawei, LG, and ZTE. Operator support for Firefox OS is also expanding. Mozilla said this week that Telkomsel and Indosat have joined the list of 21 operators that support the open web device initiative. Those supporters include China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, Hutchison Three Group, KDDI, Sprint, Telefonica, Telenor, and Telecom Italia Group. Mozilla and its partners "have done well to somewhat quietly get the platform to where it is," Jackson said. "If the incremental growth and partner list continues this next year, it'll be a clear tactical victory that should have the full attention of the competition." A proliferation of $25 smartphones would also likely make a big social impact on emerging economies. In light of the $25 smartphone, one EE Times community member said, "Seriously, no one wants a $100 PC now." The One Laptop Per Child movement several years ago sought to help close the gap between the developing world's haves and have-nots. With $25 smartphones (rather than $100 laptops), that might finally happen If anything, a problem that might trip up $25 smartphones with Firefox OS is user angst. No consumers, no matter where they live, want to be told to be happy with a mediocre user experience. So many smartphones worldwide look alike and offer similar features. What ultimately distinguishes one smartphone from another is the user experience -- battery life, performance, and display quality when used in specific applications such as browsing, infotainment, messaging, and multimedia. Of course, there will be always a place for Samsung and Apple. Brand matters. But as the smartphone market matures, handset vendors and mobile chip suppliers will be under growing pressure to justify their hardware (and price) to match the user experiences they can deliver to consumers who look for the best phones for how they use them. As the battle over lower-cost smartphones unfolds, one certainty is that vendors can no longer compete based simply by the number of CPU cores inside a handset.