把最近有關(guān) Google 的三件大事──轉(zhuǎn)手賣掉摩托羅拉(Motorola)手機業(yè)務(wù)、收購Nest 以及與三星(Samsung)簽署交叉授權(quán)協(xié)議──連在一起，你發(fā)現(xiàn)了什么？ 筆者看到的是智能手機時 代的結(jié)束，或者更精確地說，是全球消費者與智能手機的熱戀已經(jīng)走到盡頭；蜜月期已經(jīng)過完了，我現(xiàn)在這樣認(rèn)為。Google 決定把摩托羅拉手機業(yè)務(wù)(不包括大部分的IP)轉(zhuǎn)手賣給中國大廠聯(lián)想(Lenovo)，并不完全意味著 Google 的失敗，甚至是美國對中國的失敗。 有些反應(yīng)過度的媒體譴責(zé) Google 未能實現(xiàn)當(dāng)初的承諾：“…以摩托羅拉的新產(chǎn)品重塑手機硬件，并以自有手機軟硬件直接與蘋果(Apple)競爭。”雖然我也希望制造業(yè)職缺能留在美國，但我 不認(rèn)為Google的決定有錯；Google與聯(lián)想的交易顯然是該公司已經(jīng)承認(rèn)，涉足智能手機硬件業(yè)務(wù)并沒有什么加分效果。 讓 我們回過頭看看Google花32億美元收購Nest那件事。Nest的智能溫控裝置與煙霧/一氧化碳警報器都是被設(shè)計成需要與一個接收器連結(jié)──智能手機上的Nest應(yīng)用程序。因此真正的價值并不在于智能手機本身，而是外圍，也就是Nest的軟件與硬件；智能手機扮演的僅是信息傳遞的角色，且快速 成為一種普及商品。 可以肯定的是，我沒有預(yù)測智能手機市場的衰退；智能手機仍將在未來的幾年無所不在，其價值是不變的。不過智能手機的關(guān)鍵功能將會是調(diào)制解調(diào)器，連結(jié)至各式各樣的連網(wǎng)裝置以及技術(shù)?？傊?，整個世界即將翻轉(zhuǎn)。 把各種花俏功能塞進智能手機、讓智能手機變成其他裝置的傳統(tǒng)概念將會式微，取而代之的是一個全新的、將智能手機看成既定事實的世界；新型態(tài)的競爭即將展開，附加價值不在于智能手機本身，而是利用智能手機之鏈接性的各種外圍(有人稱之為物聯(lián)網(wǎng))。 現(xiàn)在把Google轉(zhuǎn)賣摩托羅拉、收購Nest這兩件事，以及稍早之前Google與三星之間的專利戰(zhàn)“停火協(xié)議”放在一起來看。IHS資深分析師Francis Sideco表示，這意味著兩家公司都接受了一個最終現(xiàn)實──沒有人能在訴訟中取得完全勝利，就算贏了某些案件、也會輸?shù)裟骋恍?，而彼此一定會損失時間與精力，以及得付出大量律師費。 而 Google與三星簽署交叉授權(quán)協(xié)議這件事更重要的一點，如Epicenter IP Group召集人Ron Epstein所言，在于：“因?qū)＠麘?zhàn)火而點燃的智能手機平臺之爭，即將走向終點?！憋@然Google與三星都看到了藉由專利互惠，一起做生意的價值所 在；雙方的和解也反映了智能手機產(chǎn)業(yè)逐漸成熟的事實，如果它仍在創(chuàng)新初期，這種情況是不會發(fā)生的。 智能手機時代的結(jié)束是一個不容易面對的未來，畢竟該市場是過去數(shù)年電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長動力來源；不過有件事情還是值得想想：這幾年來，除了手機屏幕尺寸，產(chǎn)業(yè)界一直無法明顯地將市面上的智能手機升級或是差異化。 今日的智能手機產(chǎn)業(yè)狀態(tài)與2005年有驚人的相似之處，當(dāng)時筆記本電腦的創(chuàng)新動能逐漸消失，而IBM將PC業(yè)務(wù)出售給聯(lián)想?，F(xiàn)在的不同之處，是PC產(chǎn)業(yè)主 要由臺灣(以及部分日本)業(yè)者所有，未來十年的智能手機產(chǎn)業(yè)則將是中國大陸廠商的天下，包括聯(lián)想、華為(Huawei)、中興(ZTE)以及一些美國人 可能還不熟悉的業(yè)者。 如同許多中國工程師朋友對我說的，聯(lián)想在技術(shù)、質(zhì)量、人才與紀(jì)律方面都有高聲譽(相對來說，我聽過有關(guān)于中興的評價就不那么好)；該公司也雄心勃勃，據(jù)說在去年成立了一個工程師團隊，著手開發(fā)自家的智能手機處理器，目的是為產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)造差異化。聯(lián)想的能力不容任何人小覷。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：3 Google Moves Signal End of Smartphone Era，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} 3 Google Moves Signal End of Smartphone Era Junko Yoshida, Chief International Correspondent MADISON, Wis. — Connect the dots among the three big moves Google made this month to dump Motorola, snatch up Nest and make peace with Samsung, and what do you get? I see the end of the smartphone era -- or more accurately, the international consumer love affair with smartphones. The honeymoon is over. I'm calling it now. Google's decision to sell Motorola's mobile assets (sans a majority of its IPs) to Chinese behemoth Lenovoisn't exactly signaling Google's defeat, or even America's defeat against China. I see some overheated media reports blaming Google for failing to deliver its promise: "...to reinvent mobile hardware with Motorola's new phones, and directly compete with Apple by owning both mobile hardware and software." Just as much as I want to keep manufacturing jobs in America, I don't fault Google for this decision. The new Google-Lenovo deal shows a significant recognition by Google that the company has little to gain by hanging on to the smartphone hardware business. Added values are in peripherals Now, contrast this decision against Google's $3.2 billion purchase of Nest. Nest's Learning Thermostat and Protect smoke and carbon monoxide alarm are both designed to connect to one receiver: the Nest app on a smartphone. The value here isn't the smartphone itself, but in peripherals -- the software and hardware that run Nest. The smartphone, a mere messenger for these functions, is fast becoming a commodity. To be sure, I'm not forecasting the eclipse of the smartphone. Smartphones will still be ubiquitous for years to come, their value intact. But the smartphone's key function will be a modem, attached to a myriad of connected devices and technologies. In short, the world is about to flip. Gone is the conventional wisdom of cramming more and more bells and whistles into smartphones so that smartphones can morph into something else. Emerging is a new world where the existence of smartphones is a given. Added value, where new competition will unfold, is not in smartphones themselves, but in "peripherals" (some call it the Internet of Things) that will leverage the smartphone's connectivity. Now, let's add these two events (dumping Motorola and buying Nest) to last Sunday's patent truce between Google and Samsung. That move will "short circuit" the drawn-out legal wrangling we see today, as Francis Sideco, senior director of consumer electronics and communications technologies at IHS, told EE Times. The "eventual reality" perceived by both companies is that nobody wins hands down in any litigation. While winning some individual cases and losing some, the net loss for both sides is in time and energy, and in the vast sums squandered on lawyers, Sidesco explained. But more to the point, the significance of the Google/Samsung cross-licensing agreement, as Ron Epstein, principal at Epicenter IP Group, put it earlier this week, is this: "The [smartphone] platform battle -- initiated by patent wars -- is coming to an end." Clearly, both Google and Samsung are seeing the value of doing business together by trading patents. The flip side of this détente, though, is the maturing of the smartphone business. If we were still in the early days of smartphone innovation, this wouldn't have happened. The end of an era The end of an era for smartphones is a difficult prospect to face. After all, the smartphone market has been the engine of the electronics industry in the last several years. And yet, think about this: For a few years, other than the screen size of a handset, the industry hasn't been able to significantly improve or differentiate the smartphones on the market today. The state of the smartphone industry today bears a striking resemblance to the moment in 2005 when the novelty of notebook computers began wearing off and IBM sold its PC business to Lenovo. The difference now is that the PC business then was predominantly owned by Taiwanese (and some Japanese) companies. The smartphone business for the next decade will be dominated by (mainland) Chinese OEMs including Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, and many other names still unfamiliar in the United States yet. As many of my engineer friends in China would tell me, Lenovo has a stellar reputation for technology, quality, talent and discipline. (In contrast, from what I gather about ZTE, not so much.) Lenovo is also ambitious. Last year, it even assembled a team of engineers to start developing its own application processors for smartphones -- in order to differentiate their products. Nobody better take lightly what Lenovo can do. In an environment that will be marked by a declined smartphone innovation, Apple's next move -- virtually the first major initiative in the post-Steve Jobs era -- will be huge.