隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸從歐洲成長(zhǎng)緩慢導(dǎo)致的長(zhǎng)期衰退中走出來(lái)，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)正開(kāi)始迎向美好的發(fā)展前景。然而，從技術(shù)方面來(lái)看，全球芯片供應(yīng)商也將面臨可能影響其業(yè)務(wù)模式的種種挑戰(zhàn)。
這是市調(diào)公司IC Insights總裁Bill McClean針對(duì)全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的兩極預(yù)測(cè)，“一般來(lái)看，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)在未來(lái)十年內(nèi)可望提升，”他說(shuō)。
整體而言，他預(yù)期半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域在未來(lái)十年內(nèi)可望實(shí)現(xiàn)8%的成長(zhǎng)以及ASP微幅增加。這明顯優(yōu)于過(guò)去十年成長(zhǎng)4.7%以及ASP下滑3%的表現(xiàn)。
特別是受到全球GDP成長(zhǎng)的帶動(dòng)，McClean預(yù)期全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)將在2015年與2016年時(shí)分別成長(zhǎng)11%與13%。此外，他還預(yù)測(cè)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)下一波的衰退期將從2017年開(kāi)始。
McClean預(yù)期，全球GDP成長(zhǎng)可望帶動(dòng)芯片業(yè)成長(zhǎng)
PZhesmc
McClean認(rèn)為，在未來(lái)的五年內(nèi)，盡管技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn)仍相當(dāng)嚴(yán)苛，但整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)將持續(xù)降低每晶體管成本。不過(guò)，他認(rèn)為到了10nm節(jié)點(diǎn)，業(yè)界開(kāi)始采用極紫外光(EUV)微影技術(shù)與450mm晶圓時(shí)，一切就很難說(shuō)了。
“電子系統(tǒng)銷(xiāo)售背后的整個(gè)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)可能會(huì)崩解──這絕對(duì)有其可能性，”McClean表示，“我不知道將會(huì)發(fā)生什么事，但這將會(huì)是負(fù)面的，而唯一的問(wèn)題是情況有多嚴(yán)重?！?然而，Globalfoundries的一位代表并不同意這樣的看法。他認(rèn)為，芯片制造商在20nm以后制程開(kāi)始使用雙重圖案微影技術(shù)時(shí)，每晶體管成本就已經(jīng)持續(xù)升高了。而透過(guò)使用 FinFET與系統(tǒng)劃分等更智能的設(shè)計(jì)方法，則可緩解成本的高漲。
透過(guò)以下的圖表，McClean提供了他對(duì)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的預(yù)測(cè)細(xì)節(jié)，包括深入觀察在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)仍擁有巨大成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能的中國(guó)市場(chǎng)等。
McClean認(rèn)為全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)在2017年將面對(duì)另一波衰退。
PZhesmc
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁(yè)：2017年亞洲IC市場(chǎng)將占全球六成
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
2017年亞洲IC市場(chǎng)將占全球六成
McClean提供2008-2014年之間全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)的每季統(tǒng)計(jì)與預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字；以及2017年以前的全球各區(qū)域半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，顯示亞洲正取得越來(lái)越大的市占率。
2008-2014年全球IC市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)
PZhesmc
2007-2017年全球IC市場(chǎng)占有率(以地區(qū)計(jì))
PZhesmc
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁(yè)：邏輯與存儲(chǔ)器元件市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
邏輯與存儲(chǔ)器元件市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)
類(lèi)比元件持續(xù)占據(jù)較高比重，而DRAM與快閃存儲(chǔ)器價(jià)格(ASP)則明顯增加。
2012-2013年類(lèi)比數(shù)位IC市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)
PZhesmc
2012-2013年DRAM與flash IC市場(chǎng)季成長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)
PZhesmc
本文下一頁(yè)：晶圓廠未來(lái)三年持續(xù)擴(kuò)張
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
晶圓廠未來(lái)三年持續(xù)擴(kuò)張
隨著芯片制造商積極投入，晶圓廠設(shè)備支出將在2016年以前持續(xù)增加。但大部份的設(shè)備投資支出都來(lái)自于一小部份的大型廠商。
全球半導(dǎo)體資本支出趨勢(shì)
PZhesmc
2013年主要的IC代工廠(含IDM)
PZhesmc
本文下一頁(yè)：三星對(duì)于蘋(píng)果的重量：46億美元
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
三星對(duì)于蘋(píng)果的重量：46億美元
電子產(chǎn)業(yè)最值得關(guān)注的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)事件之一──McClean估計(jì)，蘋(píng)果今年將付出46億美元的代工服務(wù)費(fèi)用給三星。他認(rèn)為，對(duì)于蘋(píng)果而言，這是一項(xiàng)很好的交易，因?yàn)槿翘峁┝朔€(wěn)定供應(yīng)的先進(jìn)技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。他推測(cè)，三星還為其搭配了存儲(chǔ)器與代工服務(wù)的價(jià)格優(yōu)惠，給予蘋(píng)果很大的好處。
許多業(yè)界觀察家預(yù)測(cè)蘋(píng)果將轉(zhuǎn)單給臺(tái)積電，還有人認(rèn)為臺(tái)積電目前建廠的Fab 14就是為了蘋(píng)果所打造的。McClean則表示，臺(tái)積電目前已無(wú)法再承接蘋(píng)果的客制芯片了，讓蘋(píng)果大量且先進(jìn)的代工需求沒(méi)有太多選擇的余地。
三星代工分析
PZhesmc
本文下一頁(yè)：2017年中國(guó)芯片市場(chǎng)占全球近40%
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
2017年中國(guó)芯片市場(chǎng)占全球近40%
雖然中國(guó)的GDP一直呈下降趨勢(shì)，但仍有高達(dá)7%的成長(zhǎng)，它仍是全球芯片使用量占最大比重的市場(chǎng)。事實(shí)上，它也已經(jīng)成為全球個(gè)人電腦(PC)、手機(jī)、汽車(chē)與數(shù)位電視的主要消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)了。
中國(guó)3Q10-2Q13之間的每季GDP
PZhesmc
中國(guó)IC市占率預(yù)測(cè)
PZhesmc
中國(guó)在全球市占率排名第一的領(lǐng)域
PZhesmc
本文下一頁(yè)：本土芯片制造僅為3%，尚在起步階段
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
本土芯片制造僅為3%，尚在起步階段
中國(guó)雖然是全球芯片消費(fèi)的最大市場(chǎng)，但在芯片制造業(yè)方面仍在起步階段。McClean預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)在2017年的芯片制造僅將從目前的3%增加到6%左右。其中，英特爾(Intel)和海力士(Hynix)是迄今為止在中國(guó)最大的芯片制造商，而三星計(jì)劃明年在中國(guó)打造一座大型晶圓廠。
中國(guó)IC市場(chǎng) vs IC生產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)
PZhesmc
中國(guó)市場(chǎng)排名前十大的IC制造商
PZhesmc
本文下一頁(yè)：10nm時(shí)代，還剩幾家廠商能放手一搏？
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
10nm時(shí)代，還剩幾家廠商能放手一搏？
McClean表示，到了2017年時(shí)，全球只有不到8家廠商有能力投資于10nm芯片制造。這意味著大型芯片制造商與小型廠商之間的鴻溝將持續(xù)明顯擴(kuò)大。
1H13全球前25大半導(dǎo)體廠商銷(xiāo)售排名(含代工廠)
PZhesmc
2013年主要的IC代工廠(含IDM)
PZhesmc
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考原文：Silicon Sees Schizophrenic Forecast，by Rick Merritt
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
{pagination}
Economically, the semiconductor industry is headed for good times as the global economy pulls out of prolonged recession led by slow growth in Europe. Technologically, chip vendors are facing challenges that ultimately could undermine their business model.
That was the appropriately schizophrenic forecast offered by Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, in his annual fall forecast here. "In general the trend for growth in semiconductors will improve in the next 10 years," McClean said.
Overall, he expects in the current 10 years a consolidating chip sector could see 8 percent growth and flat to slightly positive average selling prices. That's significantly better than the 4.7 percent growth and 3 percent ASP declines of the past decade.
Specifically, McClean forecasts market growth will nudge up to 11 percent and 13 percent in 2015 and 2016, largely on rising worldwide GDP growth. He also pegged the next down cycle of the semiconductor industry will start in 2017.
McClean said he believes the industry as a whole will continue to lower costs per transistor over the next five years despite steep technical challenges. However, he suggested all bets are off at the 10nm level when the industry adopts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and 450mm wafers.
"To get to 10nm we are already planning on playing tricks with EUV and we don't even have EUV in place," he said. "I've been through debates about getting to submicron, but this seems more real to me," said McClean who has tracked the industry since the 1980s.
Rising transistor costs would undermine systems sales based on traditional replacement cycles that anticipate significantly cheaper, faster systems every two years.
"The whole infrastructure behind electronics systems sales could fall away -- that's definitely a possibility," McClean said. "I don’t know exactly what's going to happen when, but it’s a negative and they only question is how negative is it," he said.
Members of an elite audience of industry forecasters at his presentation here disagreed. As chip makers start using double-patterned lithography at 20nm and beyond, cost per transistor are already going up, said a representative of Globalfoundries here. But those costs can be mitigated by smart use of design features such as FinFETs and system partitioning.
In foils on the following pages, McClean provided details on his forecasts, including an in-depth look at China which remains for the foreseeable future a big force is using and a small forcing in making chips, he said.
By the numbers and regions
McClean provided a quarterly breakdown of his forecast through 2014 (above) and a regional outlook through 2017 (below) which shows Asia grabbing an increasing share of the market.
By logic and memory
Analog is taking a slightly larger share of the pie in the short term (above) while DRAM and flash see significantly rising ASPs.
Of fabs and foundries
Fab gear spending is generally on the rise through 2016 as chip makers set a heady pace (above). But most of the checks get written by an increasingly small set of big chip makers (below).
Of Samsung and Apple
In one of the most watched rivalries in electronics, Apple will pay an estimated $4.6 billion to Samsung for foundry services this year, McClean estimates. It's a good deal for Apple, he says, because Samsung provides a stable supply of leading-edge technology. He speculates Samsung also bundles prices for memory and foundry, giving Apple a great deal.
Many industry watchers are alive with predictions Apple will shift to TSMC which is building a Fab 14 some say is just for Apple. McClean says TSMC has not had the capacity to take on Apple's custom chips to date, leaving Apple few choices for its high volume, leading-edge needs.
Chips inside China, Part 1
Although China's GDP has been trending down to a still hefty 7 percent (above), it continues to consume an incresasingly large share of the world's silicon (below). Indeed it has become a top consumer of PCs, cellphones, cars, and digital TVs (bottom).
Chips inside China, Part 2
Although a rising giant in chip consumption, China is still a midget in chip manufacturing. McClean expects it will only rise from making about 3 percent of worldwide chips today to about 6 percent in 2017. Intel and Hynix are by far the largest chip makers in China today with Samsung ramping up a big fab next year.
Chip consolidation continues
Fewer than eight companies will be able to make the investments to move into 10nm chip making, the state of the art for 2017, says McClean. That means the big gulf between the big and small chip makers will significantly widen.
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 為芯片市場(chǎng)把脈，已回歸健康成長(zhǎng)？
• 1H13半導(dǎo)體廠商Top 20，無(wú)晶圓和代工廠漲勢(shì)兇猛
• 作為世界工廠，中國(guó)本土半導(dǎo)體業(yè)為何發(fā)展緩慢？PZhesmc
責(zé)編：Quentin
