過去這幾年來，中國冒出了350~500家左右的無晶圓廠 IC設計業(yè)者，有一個老生常談的問題是：它們將何去何從？ 針對以上問題，筆者近日訪問的幾位中國產(chǎn)業(yè)界高層──包括中芯國際(SMIC)與銳迪科(RDA Microelectronics)CEO──都同意，這些無晶圓廠業(yè)者之中有很多恐怕難以避免被市場淘汰。畢竟，無論中國的智能手機市場規(guī)?？赡茏兌啻?，還是不可能容納這么多提供類似多核心應用處理器的供貨商。 所以，接下來會怎樣呢？在上海新國際博覽中心附近的酒店，負責亞太區(qū)市場的新思(Synopsys)副總裁潘建岳(Jian-Yue Pan)喝完一杯咖啡之后，做出了一些預測。(我想我們可以相信潘建岳的看法，畢竟這位EDA產(chǎn)業(yè)界重量級人物就是在中國土生土長，應該知道一些事情。) 首先，潘建岳預期中國會有更多新公司加入調制解調器芯片領域：“他們成長快速?！钡艺J為，幾乎所有的中國無晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者──除了展訊(Spreadtrum)與銳迪科──都是只有做智能手機用的應用處理器，我對潘建岳說：“我一直很疑惑他們接下來要做什么。” 潘建岳面無表情地回答我：“一點也沒錯，他們也正在思考同樣的事情。”他表示，那些公司迫切需要調制解調器技術來與他們的應用處理器整合，而他最近也注意到又有一些新廠商出現(xiàn)，但并沒有提到任何公司名稱。 接著潘建岳預言，在接下來兩到三年，中國無晶圓廠芯片設計業(yè)者將準備進軍“工業(yè)用IC”市場；他也看到了“數(shù)家公司”鎖定了該領域，并準備冒出頭。工業(yè)市場與消費性電子市場的智能手機或平板裝置芯片不同，是個真正多元化的市場，每種不同的應用領域規(guī)模都不會太大，需要中國無晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者們展現(xiàn)更多耐性與經(jīng)驗。 潘建岳補充指出：“而且你需要有更大的產(chǎn)品陣容來支持工業(yè)應用?！惫I(yè)應用芯片包羅萬象，從汽車、智能電網(wǎng)、醫(yī)療到嵌入式系統(tǒng)，都是工業(yè)市場的一部分。 飛思卡爾半導體(Freescale)、德州儀器(TI)與恩智浦半導體(NXP) 等公司，都明智地選擇從手機市場退出，并挾工業(yè)/嵌入式解決方案滲透進中國市場；照潘建岳的說法，所有那些跨國芯片供貨商該小心警覺了。我們可能會看到這 成為中國無晶圓廠芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)走向成熟的第一個跡象，或者這只是另一個中國業(yè)者決定追隨的FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)？ 針對工業(yè)市場，銳迪科CEO戴保家(Vincent Tai)的觀察則是：“雖然我對工業(yè)市場研究并不深入，但我印象中那是一個有很多小規(guī)模應用的分散市場，要擴張業(yè)務規(guī)模肯定很難?！? 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 本文下一頁：中國無晶圓廠業(yè)者之間將有更多整并發(fā)生？

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{pagination} 中國無晶圓廠業(yè)者之間將有更多整并發(fā)生？ 潘建岳對中國無晶圓廠芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)的第三個預言是，將會有更多的企業(yè)合并/收購案(M&A)發(fā)生。他指出，上海與深圳的首次公開上市(IPO)活動從去 年到現(xiàn)在都呈現(xiàn)暫停趨勢，那些正在投資新創(chuàng)公司的風險資金(VC)業(yè)者：“遲早都要找一個出口?！边@將為合并與收購案帶來額外的動力，因此中國無晶圓廠晶 片業(yè)者之間將吹起整并風潮。 在此同時，潘建岳認為，來自西方的企業(yè)比較有可能會在中國收購“(工程師)團隊”，而不是一整家公司；這種比較小規(guī)模的交易通常是私下進行，那些企業(yè)也沒理由要公開。 那相反的，是否有任何一家中國無晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者有興趣收購愛立信(Ericsson，編按：在ST-Ericsson拆分之后)或瑞薩通信(Renesas Mobile)的基頻技術？對此潘建岳認為不太可能，因為那些跨國企業(yè)一開始都會比較偏好整個被收購；為了吸引中國無晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者，那些跨國企業(yè)需要有較佳的技術授權計劃。 潘建岳對目前中國電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的情況做了以下總結：中國電子產(chǎn)業(yè)──包括無晶圓廠業(yè)者、晶圓代工廠等所有企業(yè)──發(fā)現(xiàn)自己困在一個永久性的窘境。 在一方面，許多與市場(ODM/OEM廠)保持密切關系的中國無晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者，面臨需要立即響應客戶需求的不間斷壓力；潘建岳說明：“來自市場的壓力使他們保持非常積極的態(tài)度，”而且讓他們對于先進制程節(jié)點特別渴望。 在 另一方面，許多中國電子廠商缺乏經(jīng)驗、缺乏IP；而像是新思這樣的公司在此扮演的角色是：“我們嘗試填補空隙。”潘建岳指出，準備好提供“完整解決方案” 是新思的關鍵策略之一：“光是去年，我們完成了9家公司的收購案，包括Magma Design Automation、思源科技與Eve等?！? 中國的無晶圓廠業(yè)者正在進行下一代芯片的設計，舉例來說，他們會需要圍繞著ARM 處理器核心的各種連結IP?！皧厱l(fā)現(xiàn)新思的資源與營收比(resources vs. revenue ratio)特別高，”潘建岳表示，這是因為在中國市場，EDA廠商需要提供客戶更多的協(xié)助。 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：Yoshida in China: Desperate for baseband, industrial and M&A，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Yoshida in China: Desperate for baseband, industrial and M&A Junko Yoshida SHANGHAI – As many as 350 to 500 fabless chip companies have popped up in China in the last several years. As I cover China’s electronics industry, there’s this one nagging question: Where do they all go from here? Everyone I met here last week--from SMIC’s CEO to RDA Microelectronics CEO--agrees on one thing: Among those fabless, a lot of “weeding out” is happening as we speak. That’s inevitable. After all, no matter how huge China’s smartphone market might be, the local market can’t possibly sustain so many vendors all offering similarly designed multicore application processors. So, what’s next? Over a cup of coffee in a hotel near the Shanghai New International Expo Center, Jian-Yue Pan, a Synopsys vice president responsible for the Asia-Pacific region, made a few predictions. [Let’s trust that Pan, an EDA-industry bigwig who lives and breathes the local Chinese market, ought to know a few things.] First, says Pan (no relation to Peter), expect more new players to emerge in “the modem chip areas” in China. “And they’re growing fast.” But I thought almost all Chinese fabless companies--except Spreadtrum and RDA--are doing only apps processors for the smartphone market. I told Pan, “I’ve always wondered about what they’d have to do next.” Pan deadpanned, “Exactly. They’re thinking the same thing.” They desperately need modems for integration into their apps processors. Pan, refraining from naming names, said he’s aware of at least a couple of new players. Industrial chips Second, in the next two to three years, Chinese fabless companies are poised to break into markets for “industrial ICs,” Pan noted. Again, Pan is seeing the emergence of “several players”--focused in these fields and ready to emerge. The difference in industrial applications is that unlike smartphone or tablet chips serving consumers, this is a truly diverse market. The total available market for each specific application won’t be so big. It’s a segment that demands Chinese fablesses to show more patience and experience. “And you need a bigger portfolio to support industrial applications,” Pan added. Industrial chips include anything from automotive applications and smart grids to medical and embedded systems for industrial markets. Freescale, Texas Instruments and NXP--who wisely steered clear of the mobile market--are penetrating the Chinese market, armed with an industrial/embedded agenda. It’s time for all of those multinationals to be on alert. We may be seeing the first sign of maturity among China fabless firms. Or, this could be just another FUD that Chinese have all decided to go after. Vincent Tai, RDA’s chief, observed, “Although I haven’t studied the industrial market very much, I imagine it to be fragmented with lots of small segments. It must be pretty tough to scale their business up.” More M&A among China fabless A third emerging trend, said Synopsys’ Pan, will be more M&A among China fablesses. Pan noted that IPOs in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have been suspended over the last year or so. VCs who seeded those startups, sooner or later, “need to find an exit,” Pan explained. This gives extra impetus for mergers or acquisitions. Consolidations among Chinese fablesses will pick up. Meanwhile, Western companies are more likely to snatch up “a team” [of engineers] in China, instead of going through M&A, Pan added. Such smaller deals often remain invisible, because the companies find no reason to disclose them. In contrast, will any China fabless be interested in buying baseband technologies from Ericsson (i.e. after ST-Ericsson dissolved) or Renesas Mobile? Pan thinks that’s unlikely. Those multinationals were initially interested in getting bought in their entirety. In order to attract China fabless, they need a good technology licensing program, Pan added. Pan summed up the state of the Chinese electronics industry today as follows. China’s electronics industry--including everyone from fabless to foundries--finds itself trapped in a perpetual quandary. On one hand many Chinese fabless companies are so close to the market [design houses, system OEMs/ODMs] that they’re under constant pressure to respond to their customers immediately. “The push from the market keeps them very aggressive,” and makes them yearn for advanced process nodes all the more, he explained. On the other hand, many Chinese electronics firms lack experience. They lack IPs. Asked what roles companies like Synopsys play here, Pan said, “We try to fill in the gap.” Cadence’s recent announcement on Tensilica acquisition aside, getting ready for “complete solutions” is one of the key trends Synopsys pioneered. “Last year alone, we pulled off nine acquisitions including Magma Design Automation, SpringSoft and Eve.” Chinese fabless in designing next chips, for example, would want all the connectivity IPs around ARM. “When you look at Synopsys resources vs. revenue ratio, you’ll find that ratio is higher” in China, he added. It’s because EDA companies need to provide more help.