思科全球員工總數(shù)約為73482人，本周在業(yè)務(wù)重組中裁減了734名員工，約占其員工總數(shù)的約1%。思科業(yè)務(wù)重組的目的是應(yīng)對軟件定義網(wǎng)絡(luò)(software-defined networking，以下簡稱“SDN”)、云計(jì)算的發(fā)展對傳統(tǒng)路由器和交換機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)的嚴(yán)重沖擊。
思科發(fā)言人今天在一封電子郵件中稱，“我們經(jīng)常對業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行評估，以根據(jù)增長機(jī)會對業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行調(diào)整。昨天，思科裁減了數(shù)量有限的員工，波及不及1%的全球員工。裁員符合各個地區(qū)的法律?！?
消息人士稱，負(fù)責(zé)與EMC合作業(yè)務(wù)以及其他數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)目的高管受到這次裁員的影響。思科未就此置評。
EMC持有VMware多數(shù)股 票，VMware收購網(wǎng)絡(luò)虛擬公司Nicira使得EMC和思科之間的關(guān)系受到影響。但思科重組業(yè)務(wù)的更重要原因是，業(yè)界在評估SDN、云計(jì)算對客戶IT業(yè)務(wù)和采購模式，以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)硬件廠商業(yè)務(wù)模式的潛在影響。
是不是該變換策略了？
思科公司(Cisco Systems)正處于一個關(guān)鍵的發(fā)展時刻。我認(rèn)為該公司可能已經(jīng)走到了業(yè)務(wù)的高峰了，如果不試圖改變發(fā)展方向的話，可能會從目前在通訊領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)地位開始走下坡。
思科目前正為現(xiàn)有的兩大趨勢所困擾──軟件定義網(wǎng)絡(luò)(SDN)以及物聯(lián)網(wǎng)(IoT)。我認(rèn)為該公司并未針對這兩大趨勢擬定正確的長期發(fā)展策略。
Bjresmc
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一方面，SDN存在各方競爭。長久以來，Google和其它資料中心巨擘，以及思科的核心企業(yè)與營運(yùn)商客戶們都期待著一個更簡單且成本更低的連網(wǎng)方案。
這些客戶開始與思科的一些競爭對手們聯(lián)合起來，期望共同打擊這家網(wǎng)絡(luò)巨擘。這些供貨商和用戶們正共同推動主流 x86 服務(wù)器上開放C語言程序所控制的虛擬化通訊層。他們就像一支整軍經(jīng)武的大軍，試圖推倒思科建立起來的 ASIC 和 IOS 軟件城墻。
思科建立起的防御行動便是在基礎(chǔ)上擁抱 SDN ，但仍繼續(xù)透過 ASIC 和 IOS 軟件，僅在思科專有的 API 上提供更多加值功能。
對于現(xiàn)有廠商而言，這的確是一項(xiàng)合理的策略。愛立信就采取了類似的立場。
然而，長期來看，我認(rèn)為這注定是一場失敗的競賽。如同免費(fèi)的 Linux 最終將勝過每套70美元的 Microsoft Windows 。更簡單也夠好的技術(shù)終究勝過加值的專有技術(shù)。
惠普(HP)似乎也加入了 SDN 競賽。如果市場趨向于以服務(wù)器管理通訊設(shè)備，那么它就贏了。如果交換機(jī)與路由器維持原有專有功能，那么它也能加入競爭。
Source:IT168Bjresmc
我想最后這場競賽的贏家將屬于最先以及最有效擁抱 SDN 開放前景的公司。然而，思科并未將自己定位成為那樣的公司。
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另一方面，就是未來的市場趨勢──物聯(lián)網(wǎng)(IoT)。思科公司希望將其所熟悉的技術(shù)推向這個領(lǐng)域──網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)協(xié)議(IP)以及與其相關(guān)的所有傳統(tǒng)硬件和軟件技術(shù)。
思科公司高層經(jīng)常強(qiáng)調(diào)思科在全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備市場約有1,800億美元的規(guī)模。然而，我認(rèn)為，這也可能成為思科的沉重負(fù)擔(dān)，可能為其帶來固守傳統(tǒng)與創(chuàng)新求變的兩難。
因此，保護(hù)IP更具意義。IP是推動當(dāng)今網(wǎng)絡(luò)的原動力，但卻仍未在剛起步的IoT世界中成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
思科的主要IoT客戶──如加拿大BC Hydro電力公司在其智能電表產(chǎn)品中也還未開始使用IP。
思科現(xiàn)正致力于為BC Hydro和其它電力公司推動IP產(chǎn)品應(yīng)用。如果能夠成功的話，或許在年底前就會有近千萬IP智能電表的安裝量。不過，值得一提的是，目前非IP的智能電表部署已經(jīng)達(dá)到近20億個了。
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深入探索一下新興的 IoT 世界，你將會發(fā)現(xiàn)英國新興公司Neul成立了一個Weightless特殊興趣小組(SIG)，推動在電視領(lǐng)域上的IoT應(yīng)用，目前已經(jīng)有617個成員了。而這也只是試圖拓展下一代普適運(yùn)算的十幾個IoT計(jì)劃之一。
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在邁向未來的發(fā)展中，思科還需要更多的獨(dú)特性。它可以從三星學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。
三星已經(jīng)成為全球最大的IT公司和第二大半導(dǎo)體公司了。在我看來，三星之所以能實(shí)現(xiàn)如今的成就，就在于其獨(dú)特的策略。它只開發(fā)人們需要的技術(shù)。
思科還必須在 IP 、 IOS 和 ASIC 上面放手。如果思科想在通訊領(lǐng)域繼續(xù)封王，就必須發(fā)展像三星一樣獨(dú)特的策略，只做對現(xiàn)有網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶以及 IoT有助益的事。
投資公司FBR Capital最近根據(jù)這些趨勢將思科、Juniper股 票評級下調(diào)至“弱于大盤”(Underperform)，高盛將Juniper股 票評級下調(diào)至“出售”(Sell)。FBR Capital預(yù)計(jì)，未來18至36個月內(nèi)，服務(wù)提供商網(wǎng)絡(luò)中路由器和交換機(jī)端口數(shù)量將減少逾40%。FBR Capital分析師斯科特·湯姆遜(Scott Thompson)發(fā)表報(bào)告稱，“我們認(rèn)為未來思科將面臨更多挑戰(zhàn)，由于交換機(jī)和路由器需求低于預(yù)期，思科將向以軟件和 服務(wù)為中心的業(yè)務(wù)模式轉(zhuǎn)型?！彼伎迫ツ昴┡读塑浖I收翻番、大幅增加服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)營收的計(jì)劃。
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
編譯：Susan Hong
參考英文原文：Why Cisco needs a new strategy，by Rick Merritt
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Why Cisco needs a new strategy
Rick Merritt
SAN JOSE, Calif. – Cisco Systems stands at a strategic juncture. I believe it may have hit its peak, and if it does not change direction it could see a slow decline from its leadership in communications.
I see Cisco pinched between two trends—software-defined networking (SDN) and the Internet of Things (IoT). I believe it currently has the wrong long-term strategy for both.
On one side are all the hungry forces of SDN. The Googles and other data center giants along with Cisco’s core enterprise and carrier customers long for a path to simpler, less costly networking.
These customers are allied with some of Cisco’s competitors who want to disrupt the networking giant. Together these vendors and users are pushing for a virtualized comms layer controlled by open C-language programs runs on mainstream x86 servers. They are like a rebel hoard with a thousand spears trying to bring down the mighty castle Cisco has built out of its ASICs and IOS software.
Cisco has defensively erected its ONE initiative. The idea is to embrace SDN at a rudimentary level but continue to deliver value-added features through ASICs and IOS, only accessible through its proprietary APIs.
It’s a reasonable strategy for an incumbent. Ericsson has adopted a similar position.
Long term, I think it’s a losing game. Ultimately free Linux overwhelms $70-a-copy Microsoft Windows. Simpler, good enough technology wins out over value-added proprietary bits.
Hewlett-Packard appears to be with the SDN crowd, and it should be. If the market moves toward managing comms through its servers, it wins. If proprietary features on switches and routers maintain a hold, it can play there too.
I think in the end the game goes to the company that is the first and best to embrace the openness of the SDN vision. Cisco is not poised to be that vendor.
Time to change direction.
IP, but not on everything anymore
On the other side is tomorrow’s market, the Internet of Things. Cisco wants to drive its familiar technology into this space--Internet Protocol and all the legacy hardware and software expertise Cisco has built around it.
Corporate execs often cite the $180 billion of installed Cisco infrastructure around the world. I contend that badge of honor can also be an albatross around its neck, the heavy legacy crown of the innovator’s dilemma.
So defending IP makes sense. IP is the electricity that drives the Internet today. But it just isn’t the reality of the fledgling IoT world.
You wouldn’t know it from listening to Cisco’s presentations, but even its key IoT customers such as Canada’s BC Hydro utility do not yet use IP in their smart meters.
Cisco is working on BC Hydro and a handful of other utilities to adopt IP. If it is wildly successful perhaps it will have ten million IP smart meters installed at the end of the year. But it’s worth noting there are already nearly 2 billion non-IP smart meters deployed today.
A couple decades ago, Internet pioneer Vint Cerf became a tech folk legend for his T-shirt that said “IP everywhere.” It was funny and it was right then. Today Cerf works for Google, a company that uses a lot of IP, but isn’t wedded to it—anywhere.
Explore the emerging IoT world a bit and you will find a little startup company in England called Neul that started the Weightless Special Interest Group to promote IoT on TV white spaces. It does not use IP and it already has 617 members. It is just one of dozens of IoT efforts trying to pioneer the next big thing--ubiquitous computing.
Cisco needs to be more agnostic if it is to navigate its way into the future. It could learn a lesson from Samsung.
Samsung has become the world’s largest IT company and the second largest semiconductor company. In my opinion, one reason it has risen to such heights (besides a lot of good government nurturing you won’t find outside Asia) is due to the fact it is agnostic. It doesn’t need technology to be red or blue or green, it just makes what people want.
Cisco needs to let go of IP and IOS and ASICs. If it is to continue to be a communications king, Cisco needs to become as agnostic as Samsung and just do what is right for its current networking users and the IoT networks to come.
Or it can hang on to what it owns until it is overrun by the hoards. Interestingly, when I drive through the giant Cisco village along San Jose’s Tasman Avenue I have always been struck by the resemblance of its austere stone buildings, one after another, to a kind of modern Roman Empire.
Good luck, Caesar.
責(zé)編：Quentin
