讓我們面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)吧…自始至終，我們都知道這出戲會(huì)如何收尾：來(lái)自西方的芯片供貨商即將下臺(tái)一鞠躬──除了唯一的幸存者，手機(jī)芯片龍頭高通(Qualcomm)。
幾天前，當(dāng)我結(jié)束與中國(guó)晶片設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)者展訊通信(Spreadtrum)CEO李力游的專訪，一回到下榻的旅館，就發(fā)現(xiàn)電子郵件信箱里躺著 ST-Ericsson 母公司愛立信(Ercisson)與意法半導(dǎo)體(ST)決定拆伙的聲明。根據(jù)新聞稿，愛立信將接收 ST-Ericsson 的4G LTE多模薄型調(diào)制解調(diào)器(multi-mode slim modem)產(chǎn)品線，意法則將接收除上述產(chǎn)品線以外所有的ST-Ericsson芯片產(chǎn)品，包括其余調(diào)制解調(diào)器芯片業(yè)務(wù)、RF、電源管理芯片以及NovaThor整合型應(yīng)用處理器。
采用ST-Ericsson方案的索尼智能手機(jī)縱使大賣，也沒能止住STE拆分的腳步
z1Nesmc
稍早之前，日本瑞薩電子(Renesas Electronics)宣布該公司正在重新檢視其手機(jī)芯片業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展方向，考慮將旗下子公司瑞薩通信(Renesas Mobile)出售或是規(guī)劃新的業(yè)務(wù)模式。無(wú)論是ST-Ericsson或Renesas Mobile，最終都是要放棄手機(jī)基帶芯片業(yè)務(wù)，就像是德州儀器(TI)、飛思卡爾半導(dǎo)體(Freescale)與美商亞德諾(ADI)在幾年前做的。
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁(yè)：失敗就是因?yàn)闆]有看重中國(guó)市場(chǎng)
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• 不和高通蘋果拼高端，展訊在中低端市場(chǎng)很滋潤(rùn)
• 智能手機(jī)及4G LTE崛起，2012手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)排名大變
• 版圖再重整，手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)誰(shuí)能笑到最后？z1Nesmc
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市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Strategy Analytics分析師Sravan Kundojjala日前發(fā)表一篇評(píng)論，將ST-Ericsson的失敗歸咎于：“把舊有產(chǎn)品復(fù)制過渡到一個(gè)新產(chǎn)品藍(lán)圖，以及管理高層不斷變動(dòng)?！彼硎?，該合資公司的整并過程不順利，也未能執(zhí)行最初的發(fā)展計(jì)劃。對(duì)于瑞薩通信的失敗，其它產(chǎn)業(yè)分析師也有類似的看法，認(rèn)為未順利整合來(lái)自不同公司的團(tuán)隊(duì)是最大問題，包括收購(gòu)自諾基亞(Nokia)的調(diào)制解調(diào)器芯片業(yè)務(wù)。
但我認(rèn)為，以上的分析漏了一個(gè)重點(diǎn)：無(wú)論是ST-Ericsson或瑞薩通信都沒有體認(rèn)到，傳統(tǒng)以一線手機(jī)廠客戶為目標(biāo)的商業(yè)模式，對(duì)于決勝全球市場(chǎng)越來(lái)越?jīng)]幫助。
就 像李力游說的，在十年前只要能取得主要來(lái)自美國(guó)或歐洲的手機(jī)供貨商訂單，一切就沒問題，因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)摩托羅拉(Motorola)、諾基亞、三星 (Samsung)與 Sony-Ericsson等一線大廠，就囊括了全球九成的手機(jī)出貨量。但現(xiàn)在，那些傳統(tǒng)一線廠的全球市占率僅剩四成，其余的市場(chǎng)比例都被中國(guó)手機(jī)廠包 了；而且根據(jù)市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Canalys預(yù)測(cè)，今日的中國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)估計(jì)可達(dá)2.4億支規(guī)模(2013年)，比估計(jì)1.25億支的美國(guó)市場(chǎng)大上許多。
2013年各新興市場(chǎng)智能手機(jī)出貨量預(yù)估
Source：Canalysz1Nesmc
而實(shí)際上，現(xiàn)今世界上幾乎所有的智能手機(jī)──不考量品牌──都是在中國(guó)制造。就是因?yàn)闆]有著重蓬勃發(fā)展的中國(guó)市場(chǎng)，以及當(dāng)?shù)厥謾C(jī)廠對(duì)于與芯片供貨商緊密合作關(guān)系的特別需求，ST-Ericsson或瑞薩通信的市場(chǎng)占有率才會(huì)在近幾年來(lái)直直落。
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁(yè)：不只是中國(guó)，還有其它新興市場(chǎng)
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 不和高通蘋果拼高端，展訊在中低端市場(chǎng)很滋潤(rùn)
• 智能手機(jī)及4G LTE崛起，2012手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)排名大變
• 版圖再重整，手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)誰(shuí)能笑到最后？z1Nesmc
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不只是中國(guó)，還有其它新興市場(chǎng)
另一個(gè)需要特別注意中國(guó)手機(jī)OEM/ODM廠的理由是，許多當(dāng)?shù)貥I(yè)者手里也握著進(jìn)入中國(guó)以外其它新興市場(chǎng)的鑰匙，包括印度、非洲與東南亞。
以展訊為例，該公司也對(duì)于進(jìn)軍中國(guó)以外市場(chǎng)有一套完整縝密的計(jì)劃。首先，展訊直接與那些將供應(yīng)手機(jī)給新興市場(chǎng)品牌業(yè)者如印度龍頭Micromax (展訊也是投資方之一)的上海、深圳ODM廠合作；其次，根據(jù)李力游表示，展訊在地區(qū)手機(jī)品牌業(yè)者與ODM廠之間主動(dòng)扮演“媒合(match- making)”的角色。
Micromax品牌手機(jī)廣告，他們是全球第十二大的手機(jī)制造商
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第三，取得全球性品牌如三星(Samsung)的設(shè)計(jì)案，也有助于展訊進(jìn)軍中國(guó)以外的新興市場(chǎng)；根 據(jù)李力游指出，展訊的40納米2.5G基帶芯片SC6530在去年秋天進(jìn)駐三星的E1282 與 E1263型號(hào)Trios系列手機(jī)。而與地方電信業(yè)者的合作也是策略之一；以非洲市場(chǎng)為例，李力游表示展訊與在當(dāng)?shù)鼗钴S的法國(guó)電信商Orange有緊密合作關(guān)系：“他們對(duì)非洲市場(chǎng)的需求很了解，我們可提供通過Orange驗(yàn)證的芯片組?！?
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁(yè)：一個(gè)讓芯片設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)者越來(lái)越處于平等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地位的市場(chǎng)
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 不和高通蘋果拼高端，展訊在中低端市場(chǎng)很滋潤(rùn)
• 智能手機(jī)及4G LTE崛起，2012手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)排名大變
• 版圖再重整，手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)誰(shuí)能笑到最后？z1Nesmc
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一個(gè)讓芯片設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)者越來(lái)越處于平等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地位的市場(chǎng)
隨著ARM、Imagination或CEVA等熱門處理器核心越來(lái)越容易取得，以及有臺(tái)積電(TSMC)等晶圓代工廠提供的先進(jìn)制程服務(wù)、各種設(shè)計(jì)工具/設(shè)計(jì)服務(wù)的加持，這些年來(lái)創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)能讓數(shù)不清的中國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠設(shè)計(jì)公司，能以前所未有平等地位與國(guó)際業(yè)者競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的市場(chǎng)。
當(dāng) 然，這并不意味著中國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)者一定會(huì)成功；現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是，許多中國(guó)無(wú)晶圓廠芯片業(yè)者，特別是應(yīng)用處理器供貨商，面對(duì)大量的“Me-too”產(chǎn)品而煩惱該如何尋找差異化。對(duì)此展訊的方法是特別注重研發(fā)、技術(shù)與品質(zhì)，以及一步步擴(kuò)增基帶產(chǎn)品組合：首先是開發(fā)自有TD-SCDMA產(chǎn)品，然后透過收購(gòu) MobilePeak 取得WCDMA產(chǎn)品，接著向一家埃及業(yè)者取得LTE (CAT4)基帶技術(shù)授權(quán)。
李力游表示，該展訊到今年底就能完成支持各種手機(jī)技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的產(chǎn)品布建，與高通、聯(lián)發(fā)科(MediaTek)等對(duì)手站在平等地位；而他強(qiáng)調(diào)，與來(lái)自西方的芯片業(yè)者相較：“我們 的價(jià)格可以減一半，而且提供的是毫不遜色的產(chǎn)品，無(wú)論是品質(zhì)與性能都與其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)廠商一樣好?！暴ぉ楹慰梢赃@樣？李力游的解釋是：“因?yàn)槲覀兊某杀窘Y(jié)構(gòu)很低。”
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
編譯：Judith Cheng
參考英文原文：Yoshida in China: How ST and Renesas blew it on mobile，by Junko Yoshida
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 不和高通蘋果拼高端，展訊在中低端市場(chǎng)很滋潤(rùn)
• 智能手機(jī)及4G LTE崛起，2012手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)排名大變
• 版圖再重整，手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)誰(shuí)能笑到最后？z1Nesmc
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Yoshida in China: How ST and Renesas blew it on mobile
Junko Yoshida
· We knew how this movie would end. The game is over for Western chip companies--except for the global mobile chip industry’s leader, Qualcomm.
SHANGHAI – Let’s face it. All along, we knew how this movie would end. The game is over for Western chip companies--except for a sole survivor and the mobile chip industry leader, Qualcomm.
Earlier this week, upon returning to my hotel from an interview with Spreadtrum CEO Leo Li at his office here, I found in my e-mail inbox the announcement on the breakup of the ST-Ericsson joint venture.
Ericsson is taking over the 4G LTE multi-mode slim modem product line. ST alone will oversee existing products including the legacy modem business, RF, Power Management and NovaThor integrated apps processors, according to the announcement.
A week ago, Renesas Electronics back in Japan announced that it’s “reviewing” the direction of its mobile business. The implication is that it has decided to divest Renesas Mobile or explore alternate business models for its mobile subsidiary.
Both ST-Ericsson and Renesas Mobile, in search of buyers, are likely to ditch their mobile baseband business, just as Texas Instruments, Freescale and Analog Devices did years ago.
Strategy Analytics’ analyst Sravan Kundojjala, in his commentary posted Monday (March 18), blamed ST-Ericsson’s breakup on “duplication among legacy products, transition to a new product roadmap and constant management changes.” The analyst said that the JV struggled to integrate multiple companies and execute on its original plan.
Other industry observers might posit similar reasons for Renesas’ failures, since Renesas Mobile, too, is a company based on the integration of several different companies--including Nokia’s former modem team.
Kundojjala may be correct. But I think his analysis misses a crucial point: both companies failed to recognize how a traditional business model--serving tier-one handset customers--became irrelevant to ultimately winning the global mobile battle.
As Li put it, 10 years ago, “you were OK,” if you got design wins from handset vendors in the United States and in Europe. It’s because “those tier-one guys--Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, etc.--held 90 percent of the global market share.”
Today, the share of the traditional tier-one companies is only 40 percent. The rest of the market is China, according to Li.
Further, China’s smartphone market today, estimated to be 240 million units in 2013, is much bigger than that of the United States, projected to be about 125 million units, according to market research firm Canalys.
And guess what?
Practically every smartphone–regardless of brand--is manufactured in China today.
Without addressing the burgeoning Chinese market and the needs of local handset vendors who demand chip suppliers to do a lot more hand holding, mobile IC vendors like ST-Ericsson or Renesas Mobile have seen their market share sharply plummet in recent years.
Global market beyond China
Another reason for paying attention to China’s handset vendors--including the many local design houses--is that they hold the key to the global market beyond China, in such countries like India, Africa and South East Asia.
Spreadtrum’s plan to sell into such markets outside China is comprehensive and elaborate. The company follows a few different routes. First, Spreadtrum directly works with design companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, who will sell their handsets to branded handset vendors like India’s leader, Micromax. (It’s important to note that Spreadtrum also invested in this popular Indian handset vendor.)
Second, Spreadtrum plays an active role in “match-making,” said Li, between local branded handset vendors and local design houses.
Third, getting design wins in global handsets such as those by Samsung also helps get Spreadtrum’s chips into handsets sold in developing countries outside China, he added. Spreadtrum’s baseband chip last fall got a design win from Samsung Electronics. Spreadtrum is supplying a 40nm 2.5G baseband, the SC6530, to power Samsung E1282 and E1263 Trios mobile phones.
In Africa, Li noted, “We also work very closely with Orange, the French operator,” who has a big presence there. Noting Spreadtrum’s close relationship with Orange, Li said, “They understand the needs of the African market, and we offer chipsets that pass their certification.”
Level-playing field
As EE Times previously reported, the availability of popular IP cores including ARM, Imagination and CEVA, foundry services based on cutting-edge process nodes at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or others, and various design tools and design services, have created an unprecedented level playing field, contributing to the emergence of countless fabless companies in China over the past several years.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that every Chinese fabless has been winning this war.
The reality is that many fabless companies, especially apps processors in China, plagued with me-too products, are struggling to find differentiations.
Among them, Spreadtrum in China is deemed an exception to the rule. Spreadtrum differs, because “we pay a lot of attention to R&D, technology and quality,” said Li.
The company has also steadily built its baseband portfolio, first by developing its own TD-SCDMA baseband technology for China, then adding WCDMA solutions through MobilePeak acquisition. Later on, Spreadtrum licensed LTE baseband technology (CAT 4) from a company based in Egypt. While Li declined to name the Egyptian company, he said that it is the same company from which Beceem--now owned by Broadcom--also licensed LTE technology.
“By the end of this year, I will have in my portfolio every technology handset vendors need and what Qualcomm and MediaTek already have. I will be there,” said Li.
More significantly, “I can drop the price by half,” compared to those developed by the Western chip companies, he claimed. “We do so by offering not inferior products, but that are as good as those of my competitors, in terms of quality and performance.”
Why could he say that? “Because my cost structure is low,” Li smiled.
責(zé)編：Quentin
