你是否已經聽到超高分辨率電視(Ultra HDTV，UHDTV)──即所謂的4K2K電視──正敲響戰(zhàn)鼓？我聽到了…但問題在于那將會是一場大戲的序曲，還是“來自東方”的街頭藝人獨奏？ 嚴格說來，這個發(fā)展已久的技術趨勢還未全力沖刺，但該新興技術將帶來的超高分辨率視頻、也就是擁有比目前1080p HDTV高四倍的像素，已經在2013年國際消費性電子展上(CES)成為被炒作的話題。當然，UHDTV確實能提供令人驚艷的視覺震撼；在2012年的CES上，已經有包括Sharp、Sony等幾家公司展示相關產品。 具備3,840×2,160像素分辨率的UHDTV標準， 是在2007年由美國電影電視工程師協(xié)會(Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers，SMPTE)首度公布，并獲得了國際電信聯(lián)盟(ITU)的認可，允許每秒24、25、60與120楨(frames)數(shù)。 UHDTV視頻制作設備，包括攝影機、編譯碼設備已經有廠商進行設計與開發(fā)，在 2012年舉行的倫敦奧運會上，有幾場賽事就是以UHDTV標準進行轉播。 LG Electronics 在 2012年10月發(fā)表第一款84寸的大屏幕LED背光4K2K液晶電視，售價1萬9,999美元；Samsung日前也宣布將在 2013年度的CES展期間發(fā)表85寸UHDTV。除此之外，包括Broadcom、Ambarella 等芯片廠商，也計劃于CES上展示UHDTV編譯碼器IC ──顯然芯片產業(yè)領域已經加緊腳步，圍繞UHDTV建立生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。

LG Electronics 在 2012年10月發(fā)表84寸LED背光4K2K液晶電視
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但我認為，UHDTV恐怕仍是一個無法獲得成功的技術；分析電視產業(yè)由模擬邁向數(shù)字化的歷史過程可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，UHDTV在三個方面缺乏成功動力，一是產品外觀(form-factor)，二是政治意愿(political will)，第三則是純經濟因素。 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 第二頁：UHDTV的三個軟肋詳解 第三頁：有線電視產業(yè)是否有能力提供4K2K內容？

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• 傳松下停止等離子面板研發(fā)，暗示電視產業(yè)轉型
• 2013年液晶電視市場的三個熱點
• OLED電視延遲量產，廠商轉而扎堆4K2K電視AHhesmc

{pagination} 第一，HDTV (或說數(shù)字電視)遲來的成功，有很大程度得歸功于平面電視的全面崛起，產業(yè)界以外觀設計時尚的新一代平面液晶/電漿電視來推廣HDTV，才因此受到消費者的熱烈歡迎。 而若要讓龐大的84寸UHDTV發(fā)揮令人贊嘆的效果，產業(yè)界需要像是科幻電影《華氏911 (Fahrenheit 451)或《回到未來2 (Back to the Future: 2)》那種“視頻墻”；唯有全面性的電視外觀改變，才能支持這種新型態(tài)娛樂。 第二，HDTV在1980年代獲得想在有限的無線電波內確保額外頻寬的美國電視廣播產業(yè)大力支持，他們游說美國國會與聯(lián)邦通訊委員會(FCC)將“數(shù)字電視”(這個名詞是由美國公司General Instruments發(fā)明的)訂為美日競爭的重要議題；在模擬時代的HDTV被稱為Hi-Vision，是由日本公共電視NHK所發(fā)明。 有數(shù)家一開始在美國HDTV領域相互競爭的美國廠商，共同合作成立了一個“大聯(lián)盟”，訂出美國的HDTV標準；而美國廣播產業(yè)與“大聯(lián)盟”都是美國電視邁向數(shù)字化過程中，缺一不可的推動力量。 而UHDTV標準又是由NHK主導開發(fā)，幾乎可說是只在日本市場被推廣的增強型HDTV標準；但目前在美國并沒有UHDTV“大聯(lián)盟”或是其它產業(yè)組織，為了讓UHDTV獲得廣泛采用而施加政治壓力。 第三，UHDTV看來只會是金字塔頂端的1%美國人才買得起的昂貴玩具；顧問機構Accenture的電子與高科技事業(yè)群高階主管Kumu Puri就指出：“標價約2萬美元的UHDTV對大眾消費者來說可能還是太昂貴了，特別是當你想到超高分辨率內容還未普及?！? Puri也指出：“要等到消費者對該技術越來越熟悉、制造商調降產品價格，以及內容供貨商開始采用該規(guī)格之后，該市場才會取得動力?！? 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 第三頁：有線電視產業(yè)是否有能力提供4K2K內容？

相關閱讀：
• 傳松下停止等離子面板研發(fā)，暗示電視產業(yè)轉型
• 2013年液晶電視市場的三個熱點
• OLED電視延遲量產，廠商轉而扎堆4K2K電視AHhesmc

{pagination} 話 雖如此，UHDTV無法成功的終極因素是，該技術完全是由產業(yè)界推動，但韓國與日本的消費性電子業(yè)者都在積極保住平面電視產品的利潤，迫切需要為虧損的電 視業(yè)務尋求“附加價值”。那些廠商已經嘗試過連網(wǎng)電視、3D TV與Google TV，UHDTV是他們的最新花招，可惜消費者不會因為同情那些廠商而購買產品。 不過，還是有一線希望；人們對于美麗的畫面 還是難以抗拒。根據(jù)Broadcom的相關產品線總監(jiān)Joseph Del Rio說法，只要隨便去問一個Best Buy的店員就會知道：“當消費者站在一整面電視墻前面，高畫質產品總是會勝出?！备叻直媛誓艽驍?D、甚至打敗智能電視。 但美國的有線電視產業(yè)是否有能力提供4K2K內容？對此Del Rio表示，別低估那些有線電視業(yè)者，該產業(yè)已經準備好支持具備頻道捆 綁(channel bonding)功能的DOCSIS 3.0 IP封包協(xié)議；所謂的頻道捆 綁能讓單一用戶同時使用多個下行與上行串流頻道，并可任意在20~40Mbps之間機動改變速率：“這讓有線電視業(yè)者能根據(jù)需 求提供高頻寬內容。” 而另一家芯片業(yè)者Ambarella的銷售與業(yè)務發(fā)展副總裁Chris Day則預期，無論有線電視產業(yè)是否準備好支持UHDTV，觀眾還是可以透過網(wǎng)絡取得4K2K內容，該公司即將推出的芯片正是為了將4K2K技術推向主流消費性市場。 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 編譯：Judith Cheng 參考英文原文：CES: Three reasons why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter，by Junko Yoshida

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• 傳松下停止等離子面板研發(fā)，暗示電視產業(yè)轉型
• 2013年液晶電視市場的三個熱點
• OLED電視延遲量產，廠商轉而扎堆4K2K電視AHhesmc

{pagination} CES: Three reasons why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter Junko Yoshida LAS VEGAS – Are you hearing drumbeat of Ultra HDTV yet? I am. The question is whether this is “The Music Man” overture or a solo bongo player on a street corner in the East Village. Seriously, this long developing "trend" has yet to reach full force. Nonetheless, the emerging technology designed to bring video in super high resolution with four times the pixels of current 1080p HDTV is the topic destined to be hyped, dissected and hotly debated at the Consumer Electronics Show this week in Las Vegas. Sure, video on Ultra HDTV is nothing short of breathtaking. CES 2012 offered a taste of it at several booths, including Sharp and Sony. Ultra HDTV, sometimes known as 4K x 2K, offers video in 3,840 × 2,160 pixels of resolution. The standard’s spec first released by the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE) in 2007 also has been approved by ITU, with its UHDTV standard allowing 24, 25, 60 and 120 frames per second. The UHDTV video production systems -- including cameras and encoder systems – have been designed and developed. Some venues at the London Olympics last year were shot in UHDTV. LG launched 84-inch UHDTV display last October in the U.S. market LG Electronics launched U.S. sales late last year of the first LED-backlit LCD flat panel display – 84 whopping inches – at a resolution of 3,840 x 2,160 for the also whopping price of $19,999. This ain’t Archie Bunker’s Philco! Samsung also promised to roll out an 85-inch UHDTV at CES this week. LG already has a model on the market. Expect to hear more from digital video chip companies like Broadcom and Ambarella, who will be showing off Ultra HDTV encode/decode ICs at CES this week. Clearly, the chip industry’s pace in building an ecosystem around UHDTV has been picking up. UHDTV is nevertheless still a non-starter for the following three reasons. Form factor, political will and economics If the history of the revolutionary shift from analog to digital TV is our guide, UHDTV lacks momentum in three areas: form-factor; political will; and pure economics. First, the belated success of HDTV (or digital TV) owes a great deal to the eventual emergence of flat-panel TV. The industry’s push to HDTV piggybacked on the new sleek, flat form factor of LCDs and/or plasma displays, which consumers enthusiastically embraced. To build excitement around a mammoth 84-inch UHDTV, the industry needs a true “video wall” – the kind portrayed in futuristic movies like “Fahrenheit 451” and “Back to the Future: 2.” Only a universal form factor change can justify this sort of rumpus-room upheaval. Second, HDTV in the 1980’s got a huge boost when the U.S. TV broadcast industry – wanting to secure extra bandwidth within the limited wireless airwaves – lobbied Congress and the Federal Communications Commission to define "digital" TV (invented by a U.S. company, General Instruments) as a key U.S.-vs.-Japan competitiveness issue. The original analog HDTV system called Hi-Vision was invented by NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster. Several U.S. companies – initially competing among themselves to be a winner of the U.S. HDTV system – joined forces to forge a consortium called the “Grand Alliance,” which eventually developed the U.S. HDTV standard. Both the broadcast industry and Grand Alliance became the indispensable forces behind the U.S. transition to digital TV. UHDTV, developed again by NHK, is almost certainly being promoted as the enhanced standard within Japan. But in the U.S., UHDTV has no Grand Alliance, nor any other major interest group to exert the political pressure needed for broad adoption. UHDTV for '1 percent' of Americans Third, UHDTV is the ultimate video toy for the “1 percent” of Americans. Call it Romneyvision, UHDTV will remain a plaything for the rich in the foreseeable future. Kumu Puri, senior executive with Accenture’s electronics and high-tech group, noted, “With an estimated $20,000 price tag, Ultra HDTV sets may be too expensive for mass-market consumption, especially when you consider that this ultra high-definition content is not yet commercially available.” Did she say “may be”? She added that “market momentum will likely wait until consumers become more familiar with the technology, manufacturers reduce prices, and content providers embrace the format.” But ultimately, here is one good reason why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter. UHDTV is an all-industry push. CE companies are looking for ways to secure margins for their flat-panel TVs. They desperately need so-called “value add” for their money-losing TV business. They’ve tried Internet TV, 3-D and Google TV. The latest gimmick is UHDTV. Consumers don’t buy products out of compassion for overextended companies trying to save their businesses. There is, however, one ray of hope. A great picture is hard to resist. Said Joseph Del Rio, associate product line director at Broadcom, “Ask any sales guy at Best Buy. When consumers come to a store and see the wall of pictures, the best picture always wins.” Resolution beats 3-D, and it beats smart TV. Asked whether the U.S. cable industry is prepared for 4K x 2K content distribution, Del Rio responded: “Don’t underestimate the U.S. cable guys.” The cable industry is already getting ready for DOCSIS 3.0, IP packet protocol over cable, featuring channel bonding. The channel bonding, enabling multiple downstream and upstream channels to be used together at the same time by a single subscriber, can also dynamically change its rate, anywhere from 20 to 40 Megabits per second (Mbps). “This will allow cable guys to offer the high-bandwidth content on demand.” But whether or not the cable industry is ready for UHDTV, Chris Day, vice president of marketing and business development, at Ambarella, Inc., predicted that 4K content materials may become first available on the Internet. Ambarella believes its upcoming chips are designed to “drive 4K into mainstream consumer market.”