在2012年，我們見(jiàn)證了電子產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的種種成就及其持續(xù)強(qiáng)化的趨勢(shì)(如蘋(píng)果公司)；另一方面，也看到它出現(xiàn)了一些紕漏(同樣地，例如蘋(píng)果)。在接下來(lái)的頁(yè)面中，我們將回顧過(guò)去一年來(lái)發(fā)生在電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中最值得關(guān)注的企業(yè)延誤、失策、失算以及重大紕漏。
俗話說(shuō)，“不經(jīng)一事，不長(zhǎng)一智”；我們衷心希望，所有曾經(jīng)在2012年失足跌倒過(guò)的，都能從錯(cuò)誤與失敗中學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
蘋(píng)果從“地圖”上迷失方向
蘋(píng)果所造就的“i經(jīng)濟(jì)”(iEconomy)在媒體大幅報(bào)導(dǎo)其主要制造合作伙伴──富士康(Foxconn)侵犯勞工權(quán)益后已經(jīng)大受打擊，新的iPhone 5在今秋推出后，更因地圖應(yīng)用程序錯(cuò)誤而蒙上一層陰影。
在蘋(píng)果CEO庫(kù)克(Tim Cook)的帶領(lǐng)下，該公司決定放棄原本使用可靠的Google Mpas，改采另一款設(shè)計(jì)不佳且未經(jīng)充份測(cè)試的地圖系統(tǒng)版本，導(dǎo)致許多用戶(hù)因而迷路，甚至身陷險(xiǎn)境，也讓這個(gè)錯(cuò)誤成為美國(guó)脫口秀節(jié)目上的笑柄。這家消費(fèi)電子巨擘最后只得公開(kāi)道歉，并鄭重宣布將盡快修復(fù)iPhone地圖應(yīng)用程序。但隨著年終將至，用戶(hù)因iPhone地圖迷路的事件仍頻傳，讓用戶(hù)至今深感困擾。
學(xué)到的教訓(xùn)：市場(chǎng)上已經(jīng)存在最佳應(yīng)用程序了，即使你是世界上最大的公司，也不必再多此一舉。
蘋(píng)果iPhone 5地圖錯(cuò)誤導(dǎo)航？
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誰(shuí)是英特爾的新掌門(mén)人？
當(dāng)飛思卡爾(Freescale)和英特爾(Intel)公司的CEO突然在今年宣布退休計(jì)劃，而卻未指名新任CEO人選時(shí)，這讓我們覺(jué)得很不尋常。兩家公司均表示將從外部尋找合適人選，并解釋這是”必要的程序之一”。
一旦一家公司開(kāi)始對(duì)外物色新的CEO人選，他們可沒(méi)義務(wù)再堅(jiān)持保密協(xié)議了。幸運(yùn)的是，飛思卡爾任命德州儀器(TI)前高階主管Gregg Lowe接任該公司前董事長(zhǎng)兼CEO Rich Beyer的職位交接過(guò)程尚稱(chēng)順利。然而，但在英特爾方面，這個(gè)接班過(guò)程卻顯得十分耐人尋味。為什么英特爾CEO歐德寧(Paul Otellini)宣布提前6個(gè)月退休呢？
據(jù)報(bào)導(dǎo)，歐德寧對(duì)于英特爾公司內(nèi)部人選表示滿(mǎn)意。他認(rèn)為，從英特爾目前面臨的挑戰(zhàn)來(lái)說(shuō)，從公司內(nèi)部挑選人才將是較為明智的作法。但他也說(shuō)，”這件事并不由我決定，但我認(rèn)為這應(yīng)該會(huì)是最有可能的結(jié)果。”
英特爾在物色下一任CEO時(shí)又會(huì)發(fā)生什么事呢？英特爾能順利地找到適合人選并完成CEO職位交接嗎？在缺少一項(xiàng)明確繼任計(jì)劃的情況下，無(wú)疑地將對(duì)于這家芯片巨擘的創(chuàng)辦人以及業(yè)界觀察家?guī)?lái)諸多困擾。
英特爾CEO歐德寧即將退休，誰(shuí)將會(huì)是接班人？
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HP越陷越深？
2011 年8月，《EETimes》記者Rick Merritt曾經(jīng)指出，Leo Apotheker并不足以帶領(lǐng)昔日輝煌的惠普公司(HP)突破困境。這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)很快地被證實(shí)了──Leo Apotheker當(dāng)初以110億美元溢價(jià)收購(gòu)英國(guó)軟件開(kāi)發(fā)公司Autonomy的愚蠢決定，讓HP面臨巨額虧損，同時(shí)也顏面盡失。
有些人認(rèn)為，惠普收購(gòu)Autonomy面臨88億美元資產(chǎn)減記的命運(yùn)，可說(shuō)是繼2000年AOL收購(gòu)時(shí)代華納公司(Time Warner)以來(lái)，最糟糕的一次收購(gòu)交易。
惠特曼(Meg Whitman)能帶領(lǐng)HP力挽汪瀾嗎？
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Google Nexus Q無(wú)限期跳票
Google公司在六月發(fā)布Nexus Q音樂(lè)播放器，而后才過(guò)了五周的時(shí)間又宣布將無(wú)限期延遲發(fā)售。
Google 在今年六月的開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)上先是大方送出5,000臺(tái)Nexus Q，接著沒(méi)多久卻宣布延遲產(chǎn)品上市，還不得不送出免費(fèi)版本給預(yù)先訂購(gòu)用戶(hù)。雖然該公司承諾會(huì)推出更好的產(chǎn)品，但這顆外型超酷、專(zhuān)為串流視頻與音樂(lè)的黑球看 來(lái)是沒(méi)法太快回來(lái)了。Google的Nexus網(wǎng)站上可是完全再也不提 Nexus Q 了。
Nexus Q 基本上是一臺(tái)點(diǎn)唱機(jī)，能讓不同的 Android 用戶(hù)串流音視頻內(nèi)容。但有批評(píng)指出這款產(chǎn)品價(jià)格太高(299美元)，但功能有限。
Google Nexus Q的失敗暴露出該公司在硬件方面的弱點(diǎn)。
但值得注意的是，Google十分認(rèn)真經(jīng)營(yíng)其硬件業(yè)務(wù)。事實(shí)上， Nexus 4 手機(jī)和 Nexus 7 、Nexus 10 平板電腦已業(yè)經(jīng)證明是十分有吸引與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的產(chǎn)品了。但是，當(dāng)涉及到為家庭所設(shè)計(jì)的設(shè)備時(shí)，Google卻顯得不足。最典型的例子是該公司在幾年前推出的網(wǎng)絡(luò)電視Google TV 。雖然目前還能在市面上看到這款產(chǎn)品，但消費(fèi)者的反應(yīng)冷淡。
就像其它任何一家軟件公司一樣，Google已經(jīng)形成一種在產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)早期預(yù)先介紹至市場(chǎng)上并在上市后實(shí)時(shí)進(jìn)行修改的策略。盡管這種策略途徑可能適用于軟件，但卻很難直接套用在消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品上，特別是如果消費(fèi)者得花好多錢(qián)來(lái)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的昂貴產(chǎn)品。
對(duì)于許多傳統(tǒng)以硬件為導(dǎo)向的消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品制造商來(lái)說(shuō)，雖然“軟件升級(jí)”被視為的新的必殺技，但Google Q 以及 Google TV 都提供了一個(gè)寶貴的教訓(xùn)：硬件設(shè)計(jì)必須從定義明確且具差異化開(kāi)始做起。
就Google Nexus Q來(lái)看，硬件比軟件更困難
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AMD、英特爾放棄WSTS
AMD和英特爾在2012年離開(kāi)世界半導(dǎo)體貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)組織(WSTS)的決定可說(shuō)是十分短視，而且可能對(duì)于全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響，對(duì)于這兩家芯片制造商本身也不例外。
為什么這是一項(xiàng)錯(cuò)誤的決定？
英特爾和AMD分別是2011年全球IC銷(xiāo)售排名第一和第十二的廠商。根據(jù)WSTS，兩家公司芯片銷(xiāo)售總計(jì)563億美元，占2011年全球芯片銷(xiāo)售額2,471億美元的23%。
“由于英特爾和AMD在全球IC市場(chǎng)上至關(guān)重要，以及其于處理器市場(chǎng)占主導(dǎo)地位(兩家公司總計(jì)占90%的市占率)，無(wú)疑地，兩家公司退出WSTS將對(duì)WSTS數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響，”IC Insights公司總裁Bill McClean認(rèn)為。
對(duì)于服務(wù)全球芯片公司的供應(yīng)鏈而言，擁有一個(gè)可靠的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)至關(guān)重要，這當(dāng)然也包括英特爾與AMD公司。這一產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈包括芯片制造商、化學(xué)物質(zhì)與和氣體供應(yīng)商、半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備公司、封裝廠，以及EDA和其它軟件供貨商。 “這些廠商都依靠WSTS的資料來(lái)協(xié)助他們?yōu)闃I(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展預(yù)先規(guī)劃與編列預(yù)算，”McClean強(qiáng)調(diào)。
接下來(lái)還會(huì)發(fā)生許多意想不到的政治后果。WSTS的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中如果少了英特爾和AMD的銷(xiāo)售資料，“那么美國(guó)IC市場(chǎng)最終出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果可能比實(shí)際的規(guī)模更小、重要性也持續(xù)降低，”McClean表示。
美國(guó)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(SIA)常為半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)聲。少了AMD和英特爾，“將會(huì)削弱SIA創(chuàng)造和建立其政策目標(biāo)的能力，”McClean警告。
數(shù)字會(huì)說(shuō)話
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PC時(shí)代宣告結(jié)束？
“后PC”時(shí)代的概念在過(guò)去十年來(lái)逐漸出現(xiàn)在科技業(yè)對(duì)話中。不過(guò)， PC將死的概念，仍讓人感覺(jué)十分震撼。
根據(jù)市場(chǎng)研究公司IHS表示，PC出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)11年來(lái)的首次下滑。 2012年P(guān)C市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將縮減1.2%，出貨量約3.487億臺(tái)。
以英特爾為首的PC產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)著Ultrabook所建構(gòu)的不實(shí)假象。微軟耗資20億美元的宣傳活動(dòng)，期望帶動(dòng)可翻轉(zhuǎn)的平板電腦和 Windows 8 銷(xiāo)售。然而，這顯然是一項(xiàng)自欺欺人的宣傳行動(dòng)，也成為2012年電子產(chǎn)業(yè)最明顯的失誤之一。
你可能會(huì)說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在就宣判 Windows 8 大打廣告戰(zhàn)的成績(jī)?nèi)绾芜€為時(shí)過(guò)早。但無(wú)論是 Ultrabooks 或是以 Windows8 為主的 Surface 平板都無(wú)法扭轉(zhuǎn)2013年P(guān)C銷(xiāo)售預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)下滑的趨勢(shì)。
目前，消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)找不到一個(gè)可吸引他們?nèi)ベI(mǎi)新PC的好理由了。無(wú)論是在 Facebook 上張貼留言透過(guò) Google Maps 導(dǎo)航或是收發(fā)email，消費(fèi)者想執(zhí)行的作業(yè)幾乎都可在其行動(dòng)設(shè)備上完成了。當(dāng)然，在辦公室上我們將會(huì)繼續(xù)使用PC，但光是這樣也不足以提升PC出貨數(shù)字。
現(xiàn)在正是每個(gè)人都得接受PC時(shí)代結(jié)束的時(shí)候了。正如基于英特爾X86 CPU和微軟Windows操作系統(tǒng)的傳統(tǒng)PC不再主導(dǎo)計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)算世界一樣，PC產(chǎn)業(yè)也不能再完全依賴(lài)微軟和英特爾的承諾和決心來(lái)推動(dòng)成長(zhǎng)。
大手筆投入宣傳活動(dòng)足以拯救PC業(yè)務(wù)嗎？
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RIM、諾基亞美景不再
Research In Motion (RIM)和諾基亞(Nokia)仍勉強(qiáng)地在以蘋(píng)果iPhone與三星Galaxy S3主導(dǎo)的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)掙扎求生。2012年，也是兩家公司流失市占率以及更多相關(guān)一切的一年。
RIM的失策在于延遲 BlackBerry 10 平臺(tái)至2013年第一季以后才會(huì)推出。該公司將問(wèn)題歸咎于“該平臺(tái)整合的將新功能以及相關(guān)編程碼過(guò)于龐大”。
RIM計(jì)劃2013年1在紐約發(fā)表 Blackberry 10 。但現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是6個(gè)月的延遲期間，讓RIM并未針對(duì)圣誕節(jié)推出其它新產(chǎn)品。從180天的產(chǎn)品周期來(lái)看，這一延遲也讓RIM幾乎被市場(chǎng)所遺忘。
相較于RIM，諾基亞至少已經(jīng)在幾個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)表了 Lumia 手機(jī)。根據(jù)一項(xiàng)來(lái)自歐洲的報(bào)導(dǎo)指出，諾基亞的 Windows 手機(jī)表現(xiàn)其實(shí)并不算太差。然而，一些觀察家認(rèn)為，諾基亞可能處于比RIM更糟糕的情況，因?yàn)樗恢币蕾?lài)的是微軟 Windows Phone OS 的長(zhǎng)期生存能力。諾基亞已經(jīng)無(wú)法再掌握自身于智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的命運(yùn)了。
相形之下，RIM仍保有其操作系統(tǒng)的專(zhuān)有控制。此外， 今年12月，美國(guó)國(guó)土安全部宣布一項(xiàng)試驗(yàn)計(jì)劃，將在其網(wǎng)絡(luò)上測(cè)試RIM的新手機(jī)和 BlackBerry 10 軟件。這個(gè)已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)而支持 iPhone 而逐步淘汰 BlackBerry 手機(jī)的聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)傳來(lái)這樣的計(jì)劃，對(duì)RIM來(lái)說(shuō)也算是個(gè)好消息。
盡管對(duì)于 BlackBerry 10 抱持厚望，RIM仍可能遭受現(xiàn)實(shí)重創(chuàng)。分析師Anil Doradla警告說(shuō)，RIM在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的“種種問(wèn)題在過(guò)去幾季來(lái)一直困擾著該公司(如缺乏新的操作系統(tǒng)、疲弱的消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品組合以及競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅)，同時(shí)由于競(jìng) 爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品迅速超越RIM硬件而更為加劇?！?
另一方面，諾基亞在2012年宣布裁員10,000人，期望能在2013年年底前省下16億歐元。該公司還將出售其芬蘭總部。但采取這些措施就足以扭轉(zhuǎn)諾基亞的命運(yùn)嗎？
美國(guó)一個(gè)政府機(jī)構(gòu)展開(kāi)RIM手機(jī)及其OS測(cè)試，能為RIM帶來(lái)一線曙光嗎？
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日本消費(fèi)巨擘受重創(chuàng)
2012年可說(shuō)是日本電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。包括松下(Panasonic)、Sony與夏普(Sharp)等幾家重要的日本消費(fèi)電子公司，均因受到電視制造業(yè)務(wù)虧損而嚴(yán)重拖累。
幾家消費(fèi)電子公司積極地展開(kāi)重組，夏普先在今年三月邁出了第一步，宣布與臺(tái)灣EMS巨擘鴻海集團(tuán)達(dá)成合作協(xié)議。夏普最初同意出售公司9.9％股權(quán)給鴻海，使 鴻海成為最大股東。此外，鴻海創(chuàng)辦人郭臺(tái)銘也投資夏普在Sakai的面板廠，取得46.5%的股權(quán)。Sakai廠不但能處理超大尺寸的玻璃基板，也是最先進(jìn)的液晶(LCD)面板廠。
一開(kāi)始標(biāo)榜為臺(tái)灣和日本之間的歷史性合作，很快地就陷入僵局。雙方意見(jiàn)分歧的焦點(diǎn)在于夏普公司股價(jià)持續(xù)大幅下跌三分之一。盡管后來(lái)持續(xù)針對(duì)收購(gòu)交易重新談判，但至今仍未能完成交易。
今年12月，高通公司(Qualcomm)表示將投資夏普約1.2億美元，使其成為這家陷于困境的日本最大電視制造商的最大股東。高通透過(guò)其Pixtronix子公司，將與夏普共同提供最新 iPhone 的屏幕。雙方還將共同開(kāi)發(fā)采用夏普 IGZO 技術(shù)的新節(jié)能屏幕。
鴻海指出，高通公司的投資并不影響其購(gòu)買(mǎi)夏普股權(quán)的計(jì)劃，但如今在夏普與鴻海合作事宜幾乎停滯的情況下，這聽(tīng)起來(lái)更像是一個(gè)顧全面子的聲明。
據(jù)報(bào)導(dǎo)，鴻?？赏?.67億美元收購(gòu)夏普在海外的電視組裝廠，包括分別位于中國(guó)、馬來(lái)西亞與墨西哥的三座工廠。
“鴻夏戀”即將進(jìn)入2013年3月的最后期限，但仍未能修成正果？
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EUV微影技術(shù)尚未到位
超紫外光(EUV) 微影技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)商用化的時(shí)程繼續(xù)延遲，似乎已經(jīng)是業(yè)界每年的慣例了。EUV仍未能準(zhǔn)備好成為主流技術(shù)，很可能會(huì)在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)對(duì)于半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來(lái)實(shí)質(zhì)影響。一些微影技術(shù)專(zhuān)家們預(yù)測(cè)，除非能夠開(kāi)發(fā)出更強(qiáng)大的完美EUV光源，否則14nm芯片制造的商用化可能得延遲到2014年或甚至更久以后。
同時(shí)，英特爾和臺(tái)積電(TSMC)公司并未輕言放棄。在今年10月，雙方斥資數(shù)十億美元投資荷蘭EUV開(kāi)發(fā)公司ASML。英特爾預(yù)計(jì)將在2013年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn) 14nm芯片，并且表示可以現(xiàn)有的浸潤(rùn)式微影技術(shù)在2015年制造出10nm處理器。然而，如果少了EUV的話，英特爾將必須為一顆芯片進(jìn)行五次曝光。
未來(lái)要能實(shí)現(xiàn)商用化的EUV，所使用的EUV光源必須比目前所用的更強(qiáng)大20倍。這種光源才能在14nm節(jié)點(diǎn)上用于曝光下一代芯片。
比利時(shí)IMEC的研究人員已經(jīng)在其EUV系統(tǒng)中采用較弱光源制造出晶圓了。但對(duì)于英特爾、三星和臺(tái)積電來(lái)說(shuō)，其吞吐量仍慢了約15至30倍。
所 有這一切都意味著，摩爾定律可能最終走向盡頭。IMEC先進(jìn)微影計(jì)劃總監(jiān)Kurt Ronse表示，“半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)無(wú)法再全力前進(jìn)，而只能實(shí)現(xiàn)半節(jié)點(diǎn)制程?！睋Q句話說(shuō)，盡管芯片供貨商仍可實(shí)現(xiàn)到所謂的14nm，但在現(xiàn)實(shí)上可能被迫只能使用 接近16nm或17nm的制程技術(shù)。
EUV微影技術(shù)能帶來(lái)預(yù)期效果嗎？
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A123破產(chǎn)打擊能源產(chǎn)業(yè)
A123公司崛起于奧巴馬政府成立之際，這一家具政府背景的公司一開(kāi)始看起來(lái)就像是潔凈能源技術(shù)領(lǐng)域下一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。雖然該公司擁有極具前景的鋰離子電池技術(shù)，但卻接二連三發(fā)生電池召回的事件，顯示A123將難以實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)于潔凈能源技術(shù)的所有承諾。
在奧巴馬政府提出 20 億美元電動(dòng)車(chē)刺激方案時(shí)，市場(chǎng)普遍相信汽車(chē)電池商 A123 將大幅受惠，被認(rèn)為是下一場(chǎng)科技業(yè)的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。公司原本 8 月協(xié)議出脫大部分股權(quán)，售與中國(guó)汽車(chē)零件商萬(wàn)向集團(tuán)，然而 10 月中旬卻驚傳協(xié)議破局，A123 無(wú)力償還高額債務(wù)，落得聲請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)命運(yùn)。
該 公司在年中申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，當(dāng)時(shí)電源管理專(zhuān)業(yè)廠商Johnson Controls公司提出1.25位美元條件收購(gòu)A123公司，看來(lái)這項(xiàng)技術(shù)將能根留美國(guó)。然而，在今年11月的破產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)拍賣(mài)時(shí)，這家威斯康辛州公司、西門(mén)子和其它打算收購(gòu)的競(jìng)標(biāo)廠商，最后輸給了來(lái)自中國(guó)汽車(chē)零件企業(yè)集團(tuán)萬(wàn)向(Wanxiang Group)高達(dá)2.566億美元的出價(jià)。
雖 然A123的失敗并未像太陽(yáng)能新興公司Solyndra在2011年破產(chǎn)時(shí)跌得慘重──A123重要的政府合約仍與另一家美國(guó)公司Navitas Systems共同持有，然而，一家擁有重要電池技術(shù)且極具前景的潔凈能源新創(chuàng)公司最后以破產(chǎn)告終，似乎正為可再生能源領(lǐng)域帶來(lái)重大打擊。
絕大部份A123的創(chuàng)新電池技術(shù)如今全歸一家中國(guó)汽車(chē)組件公司所有
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編譯：Susan Hong
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文：Top 10 tech blunders of 2012，by George Leopold, Junko Yoshida
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Top 10 tech blunders of 2012
George Leopold, Junko Yoshida
Failure is a stern teacher, and there were plenty of technology blunders in 2012. Here's our list of the worst missteps.
In a year that saw consolidation around several electronics ecosystems (think Apple), 2012 also had its share of missteps (think Apple, again). In the pages that follow, we chronicle the year’s most notable corporate delays, false steps, miscalculations and screw-ups.
They say there is no experience without suffering. Let’s hope those who goofed in 2012 will learn from their mistakes.
Apple loses its way on maps
The engine of the “iEconomy” was already taking a beating over reports of labor abuses at its leading manufacturing partner, Foxconn, when the roll out of the iPhone 5 in the fall was overshadowed by a map-app fiasco. Under new CEO Tim Cook, Apple decided to ditch a reliable Google maps system for a poorly designed and inadequately tested version that led users astray and became the butt of talk-show jokes. The consumer electronics giants apologized profusely and vowed to fix the iPhone’s map app, but reports were still trickling in at year’s end of lost, confused and angry users.
Lesson: Don’t try to reinvent the wheel, even if you are the biggest corporation on Earth.
A bum steer?
Related stories:
Teardown: Inside Apple 's iPhone 5
Will maps snafu hurt Apple?
Who will run Intel?
When CEOs at Freescale and Intel suddenly announced retirement plans this year without naming successors, it struck us as odd. The moves were explained as "a necessary step" by companies that said they were also looking at external candidates.
Once a company conducting a CEO search starts calling external candidates, those people are under no obligation to keep the overture confidential. Fortunately, Freescale's CEO transition moved fairly smoothly as the company tapped ex-TI executive Gregg Lowe to replace Rich Beyer, Freescale’s former chairman and CEO.
But the succession drama at Intel – which had $54 billion revenue in 2011 – is more intriguing. Why would CEO Paul Otellini announce his retirement six months in advance?
Otellini has reportedly expressed his satisfaction with Intel’s internal candidates. He argued that picking an insider would be the smart path for Intel given the challenges the chip giant faces. But he added, “It’s not up to me, but I think that’s the most likely outcome.”
What happened to grooming the next CEO, which at Intel was an important part of the top job? Are the days of seamless leadership transitions over at Intel? The lack of a clear succession plan at Intel undoubtedly troubles the chip maker’s founders as well as company watchers.
Paul Otellini is leaving his CEO post at Intel. Who replaces him?
Related story:
Intel CEO search begins, and the nominees are...
The hole gets deeper at HP
In August 2011, our colleague Rick Merritt opined that Leo Apotheker was not the chief executive to lead once-proud Hewlett-Packard out of the wilderness. That view was confirmed in spades a year later when Apotheker’s ill-advised $11.1 billion acquisition of British software developer Autonomy blew up in HP’s face.
Some have called November’s stunning $8.8 billion write-down by HP of the ill-fated Autonomy deal the worst corporate deal since AOL's acquisition of Time Warner in 2000.
Precisely where HP goes from here is pretty clear: If it survives, it can only go up since it now appears the computer company has just about hit rock bottom.
Meg Whitman has her hands full cleaning up the financial mess at embattled HP.
Related story:
Viewpoint: Why I don't think Leo can save HP
Google's Nexus Q flops
Google pulled the plug on its media streamer, Nexus Q, only five weeks after its introduction in June.
Google initially gave away about 5,000 Nexus Qs at its developers’ conference in June, and when the company announced it was delaying the product, it shipped free versions to those who had pre-ordered. Despite promises to “make it better,” the cool-looking black ball device designed to stream video and music won’t be coming back any time soon. Google’s Nexus Web site makes no mention of Nexus Q.
Nexus Q was essentially a jukebox that allowed different Android users to stream content to it. Critics said the device cost too much ($299) and did too little.
Google’s failure with Nexus Q exposed its weakness in the hardware business.
It’s important to note that Google is serious about hardware. In fact, the Nexus 4 phone and the Nexus 7 and 10 tablets have proven compelling and are competitively priced. But when it comes to devices designed for the home, Google comes up short. The case in point is the company’s Internet-connected Google TV, unveiled a few years back. Although it is still on the market, it has met only lukewarm consumer reception.
As with any software company, Google has forged a strategy of introducing new products early in their development and revising them on-the-fly. While that approach tends to work for software, it’s tougher to pull off in consumer electronics, especially once consumers pay for an expensive device.
While “software upgrades” are viewed as the new nirvana for many traditionally hardware-oriented CE manufacturers, Google’s Nexus Q, along with Google TV, have provided an invaluable lesson: You need to start with hardware that’s clearly defined and, above all, different.
Google's Nexus Q: Hardware is harder than software.
Related story:
Teardown: Inside Google's Nexus 7 tablet
AMD, Intel ditch WSTS
The decision by AMD and Intel to leave World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization in 2012 was short-sighted and harmful to the global semiconductor industry, not to mention both chip makers.
Here’s why it’s a mistake.
Intel and AMD were ranked No. 1 and No. 12, respectively, in worldwide IC sales in 2011. Combined chip sales for the two firms ($56.3 billion) represented 23 percent of global IC sales ($247.1 billion, according to WSTS) last year.
“Given the sheer size of Intel and AMD, their significant share of the worldwide IC market, and their dominance of the microprocessor market (with a combined share of more than 90 percent), there is no doubt that their withdrawal from reporting into WSTS will have a negative effect on the WSTS database,” argues Bill McClean, president of IC Insights.
A reliable database is critical to the supply chain serving every chip company -- including Intel and AMD. That supply chain includes raw wafer manufacturers, chemical and gas suppliers, semiconductor equipment companies, packaging houses along with EDA and other software suppliers . “They rely in some part on WSTS data to help them plan and budget their businesses,” noted McClean.
Then there are the unintended political consequences. Without Intel and AMD sales included in the WSTS database, “the Americas IC market could eventually appear much smaller and less important than it actually is,” said McClean.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is the voice of the semiconductor industry. The loss of AMD and Intel will weaken “the ability of the SIA to create and establish its policy goals,” McClean warns.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Related stories:
Intel, AMD pull out of WSTS
Why Intel, AMD departure from WSTS harms U.S. chip industry
PC pronounced dead
The notion of the "post-PC" era has insinuated itself into technology conversations over the last decade. Still, the imminent death of the PC feels like a shock.
PC shipments are expected to decline for the first time in 11 years, according to market researcher IHS. The PC market is expected to contract in 2012 by 1.2 percent, to 348.7 million units shipped.
The PC industry, led by Intel, continued to nurse false hopes with Ultrabooks. Microsoft has pushed convertible tablets and Windows 8 by running an estimated $2 billion marketing campaign. This is a campaign of denial that signifies one of the electronics industry’s notable blunders of 2012.
You could argue it’s too early to gauge the results of the massive Windows 8 ad blitz. But neither Ultrabooks nor Windows 8-based Surface alone are expected to buck the trend of sliding PC sales in 2013.
Today, consumers have few compelling reasons to purchase new PCs. Practically everything consumers want to do – like posting photos on Facebook, getting directions on Google Map, or e-mail – can be done on mobile phones.
Of course, we’ll all continue to work on PCs at the office, but this alone won’t drive up the numbers for PC shipments, either.
It’s time for everyone to accept the end of the PC era. Just as traditional PCs based on Intel’s X86 CPU and Microsoft’s Windows operating system no longer rule the computing world, the PC industry can no longer depend on the sheer commitment and determination of Microsoft and Intel to drive PC sales ever upward.
Marketing campaigns won't be enough to save the PC.
RIM, Nokia become irrelevant
Research In Motion (RIM) and Nokia scrambled in 2012 to stay afloat in the smartphone market dominated by Apple’s iPhones and Samsung’s Galaxy S3. It was also the year when both companies lost their market presence, and much of their relevance.
RIM’s blunder was delaying a BlackBerry 10 platform launch until the first quarter of 2013. The company blamed the setback on “the integration of new features and the associated large volume of code into the platform.”
RIM plans a Blackberry 10 launch next month in New York. But the reality is that the six-month delay of the company’s new platform left RIM with no new products to sell for Christmas, plunging it into oblivion in a market where 180 days is a lifetime.
Compared to RIM, at least Nokia launched its Lumia phones in several countries. Initial reports from Europe say that Nokia’s Windows phones aren’t doing badly. Yet, some observers believe Nokia might be in worse shape than RIM since it is dependent on the long-term viability of Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS. Nokia no longer controls its destiny in smartphones.
In contrast, RIM retains exclusive control of its operating system. In December, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a pilot program to test RIM’s new phone and BlackBerry 10 software on its network. Coming from a federal agency that has been phasing out BlackBerry in favor of iPhones, that’s a bit of good news.
While hope springs eternal for BB10, RIM could be still hit hard by reality. Analyst Anil Doradla warned that the U.S. market “continues to indicate the issues that have plagued the company over the past several quarters (such as lack of new OS, weak consumer offering, and threat from competition) have been compounded by RIM hardware getting leapfrogged by the competition.”
Meanwhile, Nokia announced 10,000 job cuts in 2012 alone in a bid to save 1.6 billion euros by the end of 2013. The company will be also selling its head office in Finland. Will those moves be enough?
RIM gets one more shot at relevance when a government agency tests its next phone and operating system.
Japan's consumer giants stumble
This year marked a turning point for the Japanese electronics industry as major consumer electronics companies, including Panasonic, Sony and Sharp, fell apart as their TV manufacturing business collapsed.
As they scramble to restructure, Sharp took the first step in March by announcing a deal with Taiwan-based EMS giant Hon Hai. Sharp originally agreed to cede to Hon Hai’s 9.9 percent stake in the company, making Hon Hai its biggest shareholder. Separately, Hon Hai's billionaire founder Terry Gou invested his own money in Sharp’s Sakai fab, gaining a 46.5 percent share. Capable of handling super-large glass substrates, the Sakai fab is the state-of-the-art in LCD panel production.
Originally billed as an historic collaboration between Taiwan and Japan, the soon deal stalled. The central disagreement was a dramatic slide in Sharp’s stock price to about one-third the price that the two sides had specified in March.
In December, Qualcomm said it will invest as much as $120 million in Sharp, making it the struggling Japanese TV maker's biggest shareholder. Qualcomm, through its Pixtronix subsidiary, will work with Sharp which supplies screens for the latest iPhone. They also will develop new power-saving screens based on Sharp's IGZO technology.
Hon Hai claimed the Qualcomm’s investment was unrelated to the Taiwan firm’s plan to buy into Sharp, but that looks more like a face-saving statement now that it’s deal with Sharp has hit the skids.
Hon Hai may reportedly buy some of Sharp's overseas TV assembly plants – including three factories in China, Malaysia and Mexico for $667 million.
Hon Hai founder Terry Gou put his money where his mouth was, but couldn't close the deal with Japan's ailing Sharp.
EUV: Not ready for prime time
Continuing delays in delivering a commercial extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography capability have become an annual ritual. The inability to bring the technology home will likely have real consequences for the semiconductor industry over in the next few years. A group of lithography experts estimates that commercialization of 14-nm chip fabrication could slip to 2014 or beyond unless powerful light sources of EUV can be perfected.
Meanwhile, Intel and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. aren’t giving up. In October, they committed billions of dollars to the Dutch EUV developer ASML. Intel, which expect to begin manufacturing 14-nm chips in 2013, said it could make 10-nm processors in 2015 using existing immersion lithography. Without EUV, however, Intel knows it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip.
Holding up the promised delivery of EUV is the use of light sources nearly 20 times more powerful than those used today. The light source is used to pattern next-generation chips with feature sizes as small as 14 nm.
IMEC researchers in Belgium have created wafers using less powerful light sources in its EUV systems. But throughput remains 15 to 30 times too slow for Intel, Samsung and TSMC.
All this could mean that Moore’s Law might finally be running out of steam. The semiconductor “industry is no longer taking full steps, but implementing half nodes,” said Kurt Ronse, IMEC's director advanced lithography program. In other words, while chip vendors might still call it 14 nm, they will be forced, in reality, to use the process technology closer to 16 or 17 nm.
Let's hope the rewards of EUV technology are as big as the tools themselves.
Related stories:
Moore's Law threatened by lithography woes
ASML doubles down on EUV
Battery maker A123 goes belly up
A123 looked like the next big thing in cleantech when it emerged as one of the hottest MIT spinoffs about the time the Obama administration arrived. The company had – and still has – promising lithium ion battery technology, but at least one battery recall showed that A123 would have a hard time delivering on all the promise of clean technology.
The company filed for bankruptcy protection mid-year, and it looked for awhile like its technology would remain in domestic hands when power management specialist Johnson Controls made a strong bid to acquire A123. But the Wisconsin company along with Siemens and other suitors were outbid in November by the well-heeled Chinese auto parts conglomerate Wanxiang Group Corp. for $256.6 million.
While A123’s demise falls short of matching the failure of solar startup Solyndra in 2011 – A123’s key government contracts will remain with another U.S. company (Navitas Systems) – the bankruptcy of a promising cleantech startup with solid battery technology represents a blow to the renewable energy sector.
Most of A123's innovative battery technology now belongs to a Chinese auto parts conglomerate.
Related stories:
A123's battery tech goes to extremes
There's an upside to A123's bankruptcy
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