在2012年，我們見證了電子產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的種種成就及其持續(xù)強化的趨勢(如蘋果公司)；另一方面，也看到它出現(xiàn)了一些紕漏(同樣地，例如蘋果)。在接下來的頁面中，我們將回顧過去一年來發(fā)生在電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中最值得關(guān)注的企業(yè)延誤、失策、失算以及重大紕漏。
俗話說，“不經(jīng)一事，不長一智”；我們衷心希望，所有曾經(jīng)在2012年失足跌倒過的，都能從錯誤與失敗中學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)驗。
蘋果從“地圖”上迷失方向
蘋果所造就的“i經(jīng)濟”(iEconomy)在媒體大幅報導(dǎo)其主要制造合作伙伴──富士康(Foxconn)侵犯勞工權(quán)益后已經(jīng)大受打擊，新的iPhone 5在今秋推出后，更因地圖應(yīng)用程序錯誤而蒙上一層陰影。
在蘋果CEO庫克(Tim Cook)的帶領(lǐng)下，該公司決定放棄原本使用可靠的Google Mpas，改采另一款設(shè)計不佳且未經(jīng)充份測試的地圖系統(tǒng)版本，導(dǎo)致許多用戶因而迷路，甚至身陷險境，也讓這個錯誤成為美國脫口秀節(jié)目上的笑柄。這家消費電子巨擘最后只得公開道歉，并鄭重宣布將盡快修復(fù)iPhone地圖應(yīng)用程序。但隨著年終將至，用戶因iPhone地圖迷路的事件仍頻傳，讓用戶至今深感困擾。
學(xué)到的教訓(xùn)：市場上已經(jīng)存在最佳應(yīng)用程序了，即使你是世界上最大的公司，也不必再多此一舉。
蘋果iPhone 5地圖錯誤導(dǎo)航？
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誰是英特爾的新掌門人？
當(dāng)飛思卡爾(Freescale)和英特爾(Intel)公司的CEO突然在今年宣布退休計劃，而卻未指名新任CEO人選時，這讓我們覺得很不尋常。兩家公司均表示將從外部尋找合適人選，并解釋這是”必要的程序之一”。
一旦一家公司開始對外物色新的CEO人選，他們可沒義務(wù)再堅持保密協(xié)議了。幸運的是，飛思卡爾任命德州儀器(TI)前高階主管Gregg Lowe接任該公司前董事長兼CEO Rich Beyer的職位交接過程尚稱順利。然而，但在英特爾方面，這個接班過程卻顯得十分耐人尋味。為什么英特爾CEO歐德寧(Paul Otellini)宣布提前6個月退休呢？
據(jù)報導(dǎo)，歐德寧對于英特爾公司內(nèi)部人選表示滿意。他認(rèn)為，從英特爾目前面臨的挑戰(zhàn)來說，從公司內(nèi)部挑選人才將是較為明智的作法。但他也說，”這件事并不由我決定，但我認(rèn)為這應(yīng)該會是最有可能的結(jié)果。”
英特爾在物色下一任CEO時又會發(fā)生什么事呢？英特爾能順利地找到適合人選并完成CEO職位交接嗎？在缺少一項明確繼任計劃的情況下，無疑地將對于這家芯片巨擘的創(chuàng)辦人以及業(yè)界觀察家?guī)碇T多困擾。
英特爾CEO歐德寧即將退休，誰將會是接班人？
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HP越陷越深？
2011 年8月，《EETimes》記者Rick Merritt曾經(jīng)指出，Leo Apotheker并不足以帶領(lǐng)昔日輝煌的惠普公司(HP)突破困境。這個觀點很快地被證實了──Leo Apotheker當(dāng)初以110億美元溢價收購英國軟件開發(fā)公司Autonomy的愚蠢決定，讓HP面臨巨額虧損，同時也顏面盡失。
有些人認(rèn)為，惠普收購Autonomy面臨88億美元資產(chǎn)減記的命運，可說是繼2000年AOL收購時代華納公司(Time Warner)以來，最糟糕的一次收購交易。
惠特曼(Meg Whitman)能帶領(lǐng)HP力挽汪瀾嗎？
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Google Nexus Q無限期跳票
Google公司在六月發(fā)布Nexus Q音樂播放器，而后才過了五周的時間又宣布將無限期延遲發(fā)售。
Google 在今年六月的開發(fā)者大會上先是大方送出5,000臺Nexus Q，接著沒多久卻宣布延遲產(chǎn)品上市，還不得不送出免費版本給預(yù)先訂購用戶。雖然該公司承諾會推出更好的產(chǎn)品，但這顆外型超酷、專為串流視頻與音樂的黑球看 來是沒法太快回來了。Google的Nexus網(wǎng)站上可是完全再也不提 Nexus Q 了。
Nexus Q 基本上是一臺點唱機，能讓不同的 Android 用戶串流音視頻內(nèi)容。但有批評指出這款產(chǎn)品價格太高(299美元)，但功能有限。
Google Nexus Q的失敗暴露出該公司在硬件方面的弱點。
但值得注意的是，Google十分認(rèn)真經(jīng)營其硬件業(yè)務(wù)。事實上， Nexus 4 手機和 Nexus 7 、Nexus 10 平板電腦已業(yè)經(jīng)證明是十分有吸引與競爭力的產(chǎn)品了。但是，當(dāng)涉及到為家庭所設(shè)計的設(shè)備時，Google卻顯得不足。最典型的例子是該公司在幾年前推出的網(wǎng)絡(luò)電視Google TV 。雖然目前還能在市面上看到這款產(chǎn)品，但消費者的反應(yīng)冷淡。
就像其它任何一家軟件公司一樣，Google已經(jīng)形成一種在產(chǎn)品開發(fā)早期預(yù)先介紹至市場上并在上市后實時進(jìn)行修改的策略。盡管這種策略途徑可能適用于軟件，但卻很難直接套用在消費電子產(chǎn)品上，特別是如果消費者得花好多錢來購買的昂貴產(chǎn)品。
對于許多傳統(tǒng)以硬件為導(dǎo)向的消費電子產(chǎn)品制造商來說，雖然“軟件升級”被視為的新的必殺技，但Google Q 以及 Google TV 都提供了一個寶貴的教訓(xùn)：硬件設(shè)計必須從定義明確且具差異化開始做起。
就Google Nexus Q來看，硬件比軟件更困難
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AMD、英特爾放棄WSTS
AMD和英特爾在2012年離開世界半導(dǎo)體貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計組織(WSTS)的決定可說是十分短視，而且可能對于全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來負(fù)面影響，對于這兩家芯片制造商本身也不例外。
為什么這是一項錯誤的決定？
英特爾和AMD分別是2011年全球IC銷售排名第一和第十二的廠商。根據(jù)WSTS，兩家公司芯片銷售總計563億美元，占2011年全球芯片銷售額2,471億美元的23%。
“由于英特爾和AMD在全球IC市場上至關(guān)重要，以及其于處理器市場占主導(dǎo)地位(兩家公司總計占90%的市占率)，無疑地，兩家公司退出WSTS將對WSTS數(shù)據(jù)庫帶來負(fù)面影響，”IC Insights公司總裁Bill McClean認(rèn)為。
對于服務(wù)全球芯片公司的供應(yīng)鏈而言，擁有一個可靠的數(shù)據(jù)庫至關(guān)重要，這當(dāng)然也包括英特爾與AMD公司。這一產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈包括芯片制造商、化學(xué)物質(zhì)與和氣體供應(yīng)商、半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備公司、封裝廠，以及EDA和其它軟件供貨商。 “這些廠商都依靠WSTS的資料來協(xié)助他們?yōu)闃I(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展預(yù)先規(guī)劃與編列預(yù)算，”McClean強調(diào)。
接下來還會發(fā)生許多意想不到的政治后果。WSTS的數(shù)據(jù)庫中如果少了英特爾和AMD的銷售資料，“那么美國IC市場最終出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果可能比實際的規(guī)模更小、重要性也持續(xù)降低，”McClean表示。
美國半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(SIA)常為半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)聲。少了AMD和英特爾，“將會削弱SIA創(chuàng)造和建立其政策目標(biāo)的能力，”McClean警告。
數(shù)字會說話
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PC時代宣告結(jié)束？
“后PC”時代的概念在過去十年來逐漸出現(xiàn)在科技業(yè)對話中。不過， PC將死的概念，仍讓人感覺十分震撼。
根據(jù)市場研究公司IHS表示，PC出貨量預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)11年來的首次下滑。 2012年P(guān)C市場預(yù)計將縮減1.2%，出貨量約3.487億臺。
以英特爾為首的PC產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)經(jīng)營著Ultrabook所建構(gòu)的不實假象。微軟耗資20億美元的宣傳活動，期望帶動可翻轉(zhuǎn)的平板電腦和 Windows 8 銷售。然而，這顯然是一項自欺欺人的宣傳行動，也成為2012年電子產(chǎn)業(yè)最明顯的失誤之一。
你可能會說，現(xiàn)在就宣判 Windows 8 大打廣告戰(zhàn)的成績?nèi)绾芜€為時過早。但無論是 Ultrabooks 或是以 Windows8 為主的 Surface 平板都無法扭轉(zhuǎn)2013年P(guān)C銷售預(yù)計將持續(xù)下滑的趨勢。
目前，消費者已經(jīng)找不到一個可吸引他們?nèi)ベI新PC的好理由了。無論是在 Facebook 上張貼留言透過 Google Maps 導(dǎo)航或是收發(fā)email，消費者想執(zhí)行的作業(yè)幾乎都可在其行動設(shè)備上完成了。當(dāng)然，在辦公室上我們將會繼續(xù)使用PC，但光是這樣也不足以提升PC出貨數(shù)字。
現(xiàn)在正是每個人都得接受PC時代結(jié)束的時候了。正如基于英特爾X86 CPU和微軟Windows操作系統(tǒng)的傳統(tǒng)PC不再主導(dǎo)計算機運算世界一樣，PC產(chǎn)業(yè)也不能再完全依賴微軟和英特爾的承諾和決心來推動成長。
大手筆投入宣傳活動足以拯救PC業(yè)務(wù)嗎？
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RIM、諾基亞美景不再
Research In Motion (RIM)和諾基亞(Nokia)仍勉強地在以蘋果iPhone與三星Galaxy S3主導(dǎo)的智能手機市場掙扎求生。2012年，也是兩家公司流失市占率以及更多相關(guān)一切的一年。
RIM的失策在于延遲 BlackBerry 10 平臺至2013年第一季以后才會推出。該公司將問題歸咎于“該平臺整合的將新功能以及相關(guān)編程碼過于龐大”。
RIM計劃2013年1在紐約發(fā)表 Blackberry 10 。但現(xiàn)實情況是6個月的延遲期間，讓RIM并未針對圣誕節(jié)推出其它新產(chǎn)品。從180天的產(chǎn)品周期來看，這一延遲也讓RIM幾乎被市場所遺忘。
相較于RIM，諾基亞至少已經(jīng)在幾個國家發(fā)表了 Lumia 手機。根據(jù)一項來自歐洲的報導(dǎo)指出，諾基亞的 Windows 手機表現(xiàn)其實并不算太差。然而，一些觀察家認(rèn)為，諾基亞可能處于比RIM更糟糕的情況，因為它一直依賴的是微軟 Windows Phone OS 的長期生存能力。諾基亞已經(jīng)無法再掌握自身于智能手機市場的命運了。
相形之下，RIM仍保有其操作系統(tǒng)的專有控制。此外， 今年12月，美國國土安全部宣布一項試驗計劃，將在其網(wǎng)絡(luò)上測試RIM的新手機和 BlackBerry 10 軟件。這個已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)而支持 iPhone 而逐步淘汰 BlackBerry 手機的聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)傳來這樣的計劃，對RIM來說也算是個好消息。
盡管對于 BlackBerry 10 抱持厚望，RIM仍可能遭受現(xiàn)實重創(chuàng)。分析師Anil Doradla警告說，RIM在美國市場的“種種問題在過去幾季來一直困擾著該公司(如缺乏新的操作系統(tǒng)、疲弱的消費產(chǎn)品組合以及競爭威脅)，同時由于競 爭產(chǎn)品迅速超越RIM硬件而更為加劇?！?
另一方面，諾基亞在2012年宣布裁員10,000人，期望能在2013年年底前省下16億歐元。該公司還將出售其芬蘭總部。但采取這些措施就足以扭轉(zhuǎn)諾基亞的命運嗎？
美國一個政府機構(gòu)展開RIM手機及其OS測試，能為RIM帶來一線曙光嗎？
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日本消費巨擘受重創(chuàng)
2012年可說是日本電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。包括松下(Panasonic)、Sony與夏普(Sharp)等幾家重要的日本消費電子公司，均因受到電視制造業(yè)務(wù)虧損而嚴(yán)重拖累。
幾家消費電子公司積極地展開重組，夏普先在今年三月邁出了第一步，宣布與臺灣EMS巨擘鴻海集團達(dá)成合作協(xié)議。夏普最初同意出售公司9.9％股權(quán)給鴻海，使 鴻海成為最大股東。此外，鴻海創(chuàng)辦人郭臺銘也投資夏普在Sakai的面板廠，取得46.5%的股權(quán)。Sakai廠不但能處理超大尺寸的玻璃基板，也是最先進(jìn)的液晶(LCD)面板廠。
一開始標(biāo)榜為臺灣和日本之間的歷史性合作，很快地就陷入僵局。雙方意見分歧的焦點在于夏普公司股價持續(xù)大幅下跌三分之一。盡管后來持續(xù)針對收購交易重新談判，但至今仍未能完成交易。
今年12月，高通公司(Qualcomm)表示將投資夏普約1.2億美元，使其成為這家陷于困境的日本最大電視制造商的最大股東。高通透過其Pixtronix子公司，將與夏普共同提供最新 iPhone 的屏幕。雙方還將共同開發(fā)采用夏普 IGZO 技術(shù)的新節(jié)能屏幕。
鴻海指出，高通公司的投資并不影響其購買夏普股權(quán)的計劃，但如今在夏普與鴻海合作事宜幾乎停滯的情況下，這聽起來更像是一個顧全面子的聲明。
據(jù)報導(dǎo)，鴻?？赏?.67億美元收購夏普在海外的電視組裝廠，包括分別位于中國、馬來西亞與墨西哥的三座工廠。
“鴻夏戀”即將進(jìn)入2013年3月的最后期限，但仍未能修成正果？
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本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁：EUV微影技術(shù)尚未到位
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EUV微影技術(shù)尚未到位
超紫外光(EUV) 微影技術(shù)實現(xiàn)商用化的時程繼續(xù)延遲，似乎已經(jīng)是業(yè)界每年的慣例了。EUV仍未能準(zhǔn)備好成為主流技術(shù)，很可能會在未來幾年內(nèi)對于半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來實質(zhì)影響。一些微影技術(shù)專家們預(yù)測，除非能夠開發(fā)出更強大的完美EUV光源，否則14nm芯片制造的商用化可能得延遲到2014年或甚至更久以后。
同時，英特爾和臺積電(TSMC)公司并未輕言放棄。在今年10月，雙方斥資數(shù)十億美元投資荷蘭EUV開發(fā)公司ASML。英特爾預(yù)計將在2013年開始生產(chǎn) 14nm芯片，并且表示可以現(xiàn)有的浸潤式微影技術(shù)在2015年制造出10nm處理器。然而，如果少了EUV的話，英特爾將必須為一顆芯片進(jìn)行五次曝光。
未來要能實現(xiàn)商用化的EUV，所使用的EUV光源必須比目前所用的更強大20倍。這種光源才能在14nm節(jié)點上用于曝光下一代芯片。
比利時IMEC的研究人員已經(jīng)在其EUV系統(tǒng)中采用較弱光源制造出晶圓了。但對于英特爾、三星和臺積電來說，其吞吐量仍慢了約15至30倍。
所 有這一切都意味著，摩爾定律可能最終走向盡頭。IMEC先進(jìn)微影計劃總監(jiān)Kurt Ronse表示，“半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)無法再全力前進(jìn)，而只能實現(xiàn)半節(jié)點制程?！睋Q句話說，盡管芯片供貨商仍可實現(xiàn)到所謂的14nm，但在現(xiàn)實上可能被迫只能使用 接近16nm或17nm的制程技術(shù)。
EUV微影技術(shù)能帶來預(yù)期效果嗎？
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本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
本文下一頁：A123破產(chǎn)打擊能源產(chǎn)業(yè)
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A123破產(chǎn)打擊能源產(chǎn)業(yè)
A123公司崛起于奧巴馬政府成立之際，這一家具政府背景的公司一開始看起來就像是潔凈能源技術(shù)領(lǐng)域下一個值得關(guān)注的焦點。雖然該公司擁有極具前景的鋰離子電池技術(shù)，但卻接二連三發(fā)生電池召回的事件，顯示A123將難以實現(xiàn)對于潔凈能源技術(shù)的所有承諾。
在奧巴馬政府提出 20 億美元電動車刺激方案時，市場普遍相信汽車電池商 A123 將大幅受惠，被認(rèn)為是下一場科技業(yè)的關(guān)注焦點。公司原本 8 月協(xié)議出脫大部分股權(quán)，售與中國汽車零件商萬向集團，然而 10 月中旬卻驚傳協(xié)議破局，A123 無力償還高額債務(wù)，落得聲請破產(chǎn)命運。
該 公司在年中申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，當(dāng)時電源管理專業(yè)廠商Johnson Controls公司提出1.25位美元條件收購A123公司，看來這項技術(shù)將能根留美國。然而，在今年11月的破產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)拍賣時，這家威斯康辛州公司、西門子和其它打算收購的競標(biāo)廠商，最后輸給了來自中國汽車零件企業(yè)集團萬向(Wanxiang Group)高達(dá)2.566億美元的出價。
雖 然A123的失敗并未像太陽能新興公司Solyndra在2011年破產(chǎn)時跌得慘重──A123重要的政府合約仍與另一家美國公司Navitas Systems共同持有，然而，一家擁有重要電池技術(shù)且極具前景的潔凈能源新創(chuàng)公司最后以破產(chǎn)告終，似乎正為可再生能源領(lǐng)域帶來重大打擊。
絕大部份A123的創(chuàng)新電池技術(shù)如今全歸一家中國汽車組件公司所有
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編譯：Susan Hong
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文：Top 10 tech blunders of 2012，by George Leopold, Junko Yoshida
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Top 10 tech blunders of 2012
George Leopold, Junko Yoshida
Failure is a stern teacher, and there were plenty of technology blunders in 2012. Here's our list of the worst missteps.
In a year that saw consolidation around several electronics ecosystems (think Apple), 2012 also had its share of missteps (think Apple, again). In the pages that follow, we chronicle the year’s most notable corporate delays, false steps, miscalculations and screw-ups.
They say there is no experience without suffering. Let’s hope those who goofed in 2012 will learn from their mistakes.
Apple loses its way on maps
The engine of the “iEconomy” was already taking a beating over reports of labor abuses at its leading manufacturing partner, Foxconn, when the roll out of the iPhone 5 in the fall was overshadowed by a map-app fiasco. Under new CEO Tim Cook, Apple decided to ditch a reliable Google maps system for a poorly designed and inadequately tested version that led users astray and became the butt of talk-show jokes. The consumer electronics giants apologized profusely and vowed to fix the iPhone’s map app, but reports were still trickling in at year’s end of lost, confused and angry users.
Lesson: Don’t try to reinvent the wheel, even if you are the biggest corporation on Earth.
A bum steer?
Related stories:
Teardown: Inside Apple 's iPhone 5
Will maps snafu hurt Apple?
Who will run Intel?
When CEOs at Freescale and Intel suddenly announced retirement plans this year without naming successors, it struck us as odd. The moves were explained as "a necessary step" by companies that said they were also looking at external candidates.
Once a company conducting a CEO search starts calling external candidates, those people are under no obligation to keep the overture confidential. Fortunately, Freescale's CEO transition moved fairly smoothly as the company tapped ex-TI executive Gregg Lowe to replace Rich Beyer, Freescale’s former chairman and CEO.
But the succession drama at Intel – which had $54 billion revenue in 2011 – is more intriguing. Why would CEO Paul Otellini announce his retirement six months in advance?
Otellini has reportedly expressed his satisfaction with Intel’s internal candidates. He argued that picking an insider would be the smart path for Intel given the challenges the chip giant faces. But he added, “It’s not up to me, but I think that’s the most likely outcome.”
What happened to grooming the next CEO, which at Intel was an important part of the top job? Are the days of seamless leadership transitions over at Intel? The lack of a clear succession plan at Intel undoubtedly troubles the chip maker’s founders as well as company watchers.
Paul Otellini is leaving his CEO post at Intel. Who replaces him?
Related story:
Intel CEO search begins, and the nominees are...
The hole gets deeper at HP
In August 2011, our colleague Rick Merritt opined that Leo Apotheker was not the chief executive to lead once-proud Hewlett-Packard out of the wilderness. That view was confirmed in spades a year later when Apotheker’s ill-advised $11.1 billion acquisition of British software developer Autonomy blew up in HP’s face.
Some have called November’s stunning $8.8 billion write-down by HP of the ill-fated Autonomy deal the worst corporate deal since AOL's acquisition of Time Warner in 2000.
Precisely where HP goes from here is pretty clear: If it survives, it can only go up since it now appears the computer company has just about hit rock bottom.
Meg Whitman has her hands full cleaning up the financial mess at embattled HP.
Related story:
Viewpoint: Why I don't think Leo can save HP
Google's Nexus Q flops
Google pulled the plug on its media streamer, Nexus Q, only five weeks after its introduction in June.
Google initially gave away about 5,000 Nexus Qs at its developers’ conference in June, and when the company announced it was delaying the product, it shipped free versions to those who had pre-ordered. Despite promises to “make it better,” the cool-looking black ball device designed to stream video and music won’t be coming back any time soon. Google’s Nexus Web site makes no mention of Nexus Q.
Nexus Q was essentially a jukebox that allowed different Android users to stream content to it. Critics said the device cost too much ($299) and did too little.
Google’s failure with Nexus Q exposed its weakness in the hardware business.
It’s important to note that Google is serious about hardware. In fact, the Nexus 4 phone and the Nexus 7 and 10 tablets have proven compelling and are competitively priced. But when it comes to devices designed for the home, Google comes up short. The case in point is the company’s Internet-connected Google TV, unveiled a few years back. Although it is still on the market, it has met only lukewarm consumer reception.
As with any software company, Google has forged a strategy of introducing new products early in their development and revising them on-the-fly. While that approach tends to work for software, it’s tougher to pull off in consumer electronics, especially once consumers pay for an expensive device.
While “software upgrades” are viewed as the new nirvana for many traditionally hardware-oriented CE manufacturers, Google’s Nexus Q, along with Google TV, have provided an invaluable lesson: You need to start with hardware that’s clearly defined and, above all, different.
Google's Nexus Q: Hardware is harder than software.
Related story:
Teardown: Inside Google's Nexus 7 tablet
AMD, Intel ditch WSTS
The decision by AMD and Intel to leave World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization in 2012 was short-sighted and harmful to the global semiconductor industry, not to mention both chip makers.
Here’s why it’s a mistake.
Intel and AMD were ranked No. 1 and No. 12, respectively, in worldwide IC sales in 2011. Combined chip sales for the two firms ($56.3 billion) represented 23 percent of global IC sales ($247.1 billion, according to WSTS) last year.
“Given the sheer size of Intel and AMD, their significant share of the worldwide IC market, and their dominance of the microprocessor market (with a combined share of more than 90 percent), there is no doubt that their withdrawal from reporting into WSTS will have a negative effect on the WSTS database,” argues Bill McClean, president of IC Insights.
A reliable database is critical to the supply chain serving every chip company -- including Intel and AMD. That supply chain includes raw wafer manufacturers, chemical and gas suppliers, semiconductor equipment companies, packaging houses along with EDA and other software suppliers . “They rely in some part on WSTS data to help them plan and budget their businesses,” noted McClean.
Then there are the unintended political consequences. Without Intel and AMD sales included in the WSTS database, “the Americas IC market could eventually appear much smaller and less important than it actually is,” said McClean.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is the voice of the semiconductor industry. The loss of AMD and Intel will weaken “the ability of the SIA to create and establish its policy goals,” McClean warns.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Related stories:
Intel, AMD pull out of WSTS
Why Intel, AMD departure from WSTS harms U.S. chip industry
PC pronounced dead
The notion of the "post-PC" era has insinuated itself into technology conversations over the last decade. Still, the imminent death of the PC feels like a shock.
PC shipments are expected to decline for the first time in 11 years, according to market researcher IHS. The PC market is expected to contract in 2012 by 1.2 percent, to 348.7 million units shipped.
The PC industry, led by Intel, continued to nurse false hopes with Ultrabooks. Microsoft has pushed convertible tablets and Windows 8 by running an estimated $2 billion marketing campaign. This is a campaign of denial that signifies one of the electronics industry’s notable blunders of 2012.
You could argue it’s too early to gauge the results of the massive Windows 8 ad blitz. But neither Ultrabooks nor Windows 8-based Surface alone are expected to buck the trend of sliding PC sales in 2013.
Today, consumers have few compelling reasons to purchase new PCs. Practically everything consumers want to do – like posting photos on Facebook, getting directions on Google Map, or e-mail – can be done on mobile phones.
Of course, we’ll all continue to work on PCs at the office, but this alone won’t drive up the numbers for PC shipments, either.
It’s time for everyone to accept the end of the PC era. Just as traditional PCs based on Intel’s X86 CPU and Microsoft’s Windows operating system no longer rule the computing world, the PC industry can no longer depend on the sheer commitment and determination of Microsoft and Intel to drive PC sales ever upward.
Marketing campaigns won't be enough to save the PC.
RIM, Nokia become irrelevant
Research In Motion (RIM) and Nokia scrambled in 2012 to stay afloat in the smartphone market dominated by Apple’s iPhones and Samsung’s Galaxy S3. It was also the year when both companies lost their market presence, and much of their relevance.
RIM’s blunder was delaying a BlackBerry 10 platform launch until the first quarter of 2013. The company blamed the setback on “the integration of new features and the associated large volume of code into the platform.”
RIM plans a Blackberry 10 launch next month in New York. But the reality is that the six-month delay of the company’s new platform left RIM with no new products to sell for Christmas, plunging it into oblivion in a market where 180 days is a lifetime.
Compared to RIM, at least Nokia launched its Lumia phones in several countries. Initial reports from Europe say that Nokia’s Windows phones aren’t doing badly. Yet, some observers believe Nokia might be in worse shape than RIM since it is dependent on the long-term viability of Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS. Nokia no longer controls its destiny in smartphones.
In contrast, RIM retains exclusive control of its operating system. In December, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a pilot program to test RIM’s new phone and BlackBerry 10 software on its network. Coming from a federal agency that has been phasing out BlackBerry in favor of iPhones, that’s a bit of good news.
While hope springs eternal for BB10, RIM could be still hit hard by reality. Analyst Anil Doradla warned that the U.S. market “continues to indicate the issues that have plagued the company over the past several quarters (such as lack of new OS, weak consumer offering, and threat from competition) have been compounded by RIM hardware getting leapfrogged by the competition.”
Meanwhile, Nokia announced 10,000 job cuts in 2012 alone in a bid to save 1.6 billion euros by the end of 2013. The company will be also selling its head office in Finland. Will those moves be enough?
RIM gets one more shot at relevance when a government agency tests its next phone and operating system.
Japan's consumer giants stumble
This year marked a turning point for the Japanese electronics industry as major consumer electronics companies, including Panasonic, Sony and Sharp, fell apart as their TV manufacturing business collapsed.
As they scramble to restructure, Sharp took the first step in March by announcing a deal with Taiwan-based EMS giant Hon Hai. Sharp originally agreed to cede to Hon Hai’s 9.9 percent stake in the company, making Hon Hai its biggest shareholder. Separately, Hon Hai's billionaire founder Terry Gou invested his own money in Sharp’s Sakai fab, gaining a 46.5 percent share. Capable of handling super-large glass substrates, the Sakai fab is the state-of-the-art in LCD panel production.
Originally billed as an historic collaboration between Taiwan and Japan, the soon deal stalled. The central disagreement was a dramatic slide in Sharp’s stock price to about one-third the price that the two sides had specified in March.
In December, Qualcomm said it will invest as much as $120 million in Sharp, making it the struggling Japanese TV maker's biggest shareholder. Qualcomm, through its Pixtronix subsidiary, will work with Sharp which supplies screens for the latest iPhone. They also will develop new power-saving screens based on Sharp's IGZO technology.
Hon Hai claimed the Qualcomm’s investment was unrelated to the Taiwan firm’s plan to buy into Sharp, but that looks more like a face-saving statement now that it’s deal with Sharp has hit the skids.
Hon Hai may reportedly buy some of Sharp's overseas TV assembly plants – including three factories in China, Malaysia and Mexico for $667 million.
Hon Hai founder Terry Gou put his money where his mouth was, but couldn't close the deal with Japan's ailing Sharp.
EUV: Not ready for prime time
Continuing delays in delivering a commercial extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography capability have become an annual ritual. The inability to bring the technology home will likely have real consequences for the semiconductor industry over in the next few years. A group of lithography experts estimates that commercialization of 14-nm chip fabrication could slip to 2014 or beyond unless powerful light sources of EUV can be perfected.
Meanwhile, Intel and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. aren’t giving up. In October, they committed billions of dollars to the Dutch EUV developer ASML. Intel, which expect to begin manufacturing 14-nm chips in 2013, said it could make 10-nm processors in 2015 using existing immersion lithography. Without EUV, however, Intel knows it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip.
Holding up the promised delivery of EUV is the use of light sources nearly 20 times more powerful than those used today. The light source is used to pattern next-generation chips with feature sizes as small as 14 nm.
IMEC researchers in Belgium have created wafers using less powerful light sources in its EUV systems. But throughput remains 15 to 30 times too slow for Intel, Samsung and TSMC.
All this could mean that Moore’s Law might finally be running out of steam. The semiconductor “industry is no longer taking full steps, but implementing half nodes,” said Kurt Ronse, IMEC's director advanced lithography program. In other words, while chip vendors might still call it 14 nm, they will be forced, in reality, to use the process technology closer to 16 or 17 nm.
Let's hope the rewards of EUV technology are as big as the tools themselves.
Related stories:
Moore's Law threatened by lithography woes
ASML doubles down on EUV
Battery maker A123 goes belly up
A123 looked like the next big thing in cleantech when it emerged as one of the hottest MIT spinoffs about the time the Obama administration arrived. The company had – and still has – promising lithium ion battery technology, but at least one battery recall showed that A123 would have a hard time delivering on all the promise of clean technology.
The company filed for bankruptcy protection mid-year, and it looked for awhile like its technology would remain in domestic hands when power management specialist Johnson Controls made a strong bid to acquire A123. But the Wisconsin company along with Siemens and other suitors were outbid in November by the well-heeled Chinese auto parts conglomerate Wanxiang Group Corp. for $256.6 million.
While A123’s demise falls short of matching the failure of solar startup Solyndra in 2011 – A123’s key government contracts will remain with another U.S. company (Navitas Systems) – the bankruptcy of a promising cleantech startup with solid battery technology represents a blow to the renewable energy sector.
Most of A123's innovative battery technology now belongs to a Chinese auto parts conglomerate.
Related stories:
A123's battery tech goes to extremes
There's an upside to A123's bankruptcy
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