上周，電子產(chǎn)業(yè)相當熱鬧，英特爾開發(fā)者論壇 (Intel Developer Forum, IDF) 和蘋果 (Apple) 的 iPhone 5發(fā)表會選在同一時間舉辦。兩大活動都令人印象深刻，但我也不禁擔心，業(yè)界兩大龍頭的電子生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是否已經(jīng)處于短兵相接的緊張態(tài)勢了。 我在Moscone West搭乘電扶梯時巧遇了 Dave Ditzel。他曾經(jīng)是升陽計算機 (Sun Microsystems)兩代 Sparc 芯片的設計師，現(xiàn)在則為英特爾這家PC巨擘設計新一代處理器。 Dave說，他對英特爾長而深的微處理器管線開發(fā)項目，以及有條不紊的復雜而大量的生產(chǎn)制程印象深刻。我也有同感。 在我們談話的同時， Invensas 的首席技術官剛好經(jīng)過，他認識Dave，旋即加入了談話。當他從口袋中掏出該公司采用最新3D堆棧技術開發(fā)的原型產(chǎn)品的那一刻，我感覺到我彷佛站在未來芯片設計的原爆點(Ground Zero)。 而當我進場聆聽英特爾的 Mark Bohr 闡述該公司的制程技術藍圖時，我又有了相同的感覺。Bohr在芯片制造領域擁有30年經(jīng)驗，他無疑是當代少數(shù)制程技術的先驅之一。他的演講內容不僅包含英特爾下一代14nm制程，還包括了再下一代的 10nm 制程。整個電子產(chǎn)業(yè)，幾乎都仰賴像他這樣的先鋒來推進。 然而，在英特爾的航行路線中，卻也橫亙著若干冰山。用于下一世代芯片的微影技術看起來在我們到達原子級微縮極限時仍然無法就緒。即使是英特爾，未來也很可能無法再維持每兩年即推進到新一代制程的速度了。 接下來，一切都和移動息息相關。是的，英特爾的 Atom SoC 現(xiàn)已用在六款普通的智能手機，以及另外四款頗受人矚目的 Windows 8 平板計算機中。但蘋果的 iPhone 和 Samsung 領軍的 Android 裝置，早已各拿下移動市場的半壁江山。 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 本文下一頁：觸礁

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{pagination} 觸礁 在 IDF 上，我并未感受到英特爾努力想成為 Andoird 市場領導者，而微軟(Microsoft)則無疑并未領導移動軟件。事實上，英特爾將重心放在了去塑造后PC時代強大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。 好消息是，英特爾仍然是PC市場以及目前概念仍然模糊的云端運算領域的核心公司。從事PCI和USB開發(fā)的Jim Pappas熱情地對我分享了閃存將會如何改變計算機基礎設施的編程方法，英特爾的目的是制作一個模型，并假設該模型能采用post-NAND且運作順暢。 在此同時，蘋果股價的上升幅度也略高于其它僅能做出單一款“me-too”手機的公司。新的 iPhone 5 也跟上了他的競爭對手過去一年來早已配備的多項元素── LTE 、更大的顯示屏幕、更好的媒體能力，以及小型連接器。 去設計一個外表看來很體面，但在性能上卻不頂尖的智能手機、平板電腦和筆記本電腦，是相當偉大的商業(yè)模式。因為這樣做就能在熱門技術稍稍冷卻，性能趨于穩(wěn)定且確定實用性之后，以最低風險的方式提供給消費者。 然而，蘋果也有觸礁的可能，Gartner的 Van Baker 指出，如果錯失了一種產(chǎn)品的生命周期，就有可能在這一年內完全無法從該產(chǎn)品獲得營收，更可能失去移動教主寶座。其它的風險還來自于軟件堆棧的復雜程度、半導體和系統(tǒng)設計供應鏈，人才的專業(yè)程度等。Tim Cook應該做好萬全準備。 上周兩大業(yè)界盛事都震撼人心，只不過，當看到兩艘巨型郵輪交錯駛過舊金山Howard街時，還是有些令人心驚膽顫。 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 編譯： Joy Teng 參考英文原文：Intel, Apple may be two ships passing in the light，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} Intel, Apple may be two ships passing in the light Rick Merritt SAN FRANCISCO – It was a heady week hanging out the Intel Developer Forum and covering the iPhone 5 launch a block away. At the end of it all, I am both impressed and worried about the two big ecosystems of electronics that passed within spitting distance of each other. Riding the big escalators at Moscone West I saw Dave Ditzel. He designed a couple generations of Sparc chips at Sun Microsystems back in the day and now is working for Intel on a CPU beyond anything the PC giant is talking about publicly. [ARM TechCon 2012, the largest ARM design ecosystem under one roof, is Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 in Santa Clara. Click here to learn more] Dave said he was impressed by Intel’s long, deep pipeline of microprocessor projects and its methodical process for executing on such massively complex programs. Me, too. While we talked, the chief technologist of Invensas, who also knew Dave, chimed in, excitedly sharing a prototype in his pocket of the company’s latest 3-D stacking technology. For a moment I felt like I was standing at Ground Zero of the future of chip design. I had that feeling again listening to Mark Bohr present Intel’s process technology road map. Bohr’s been around the chip fabrication business for 30 years and unarguably is one of maybe a dozen people now at its vanguard. He talked with authority not only about Intel’s next generation 14-nm process but the 10-nm one beyond it. The whole electronics industry depends on pathfinders like him. There’s an iceberg field ahead of the big Intel cruise ship. The lithography methods used to create chips seem to be running out of gas as we approach the atomic limits of scaling. Even Intel may not be able to stay much longer on its heady two-year cadence for new processes. Then there’s the whole mobile thing. Yes, Intel’s Atom-based SoCs now power six run-of-the-mill smartphones and four compelling Windows 8 tablets. But Apple’s iPhone franchise (and the Android fleet led by Samsung) is steaming half an ocean ahead of it. Running aground I did not get a feeling at IDF that Intel is in the vanguard of Android, and Microsoft is certainly not leading the way in mobile software. Intel has its work cut out for itself navigating it’s way to a strong post-PC ecosystem. The good news is, it is still at the center of the PC and what people loosely call cloud computing. Jim Pappas, one of the guys who drove PCI and USB, enthusiastically told me about how flash memory will change the programming model of the compute infrastructure, a model Intel aims to author—if all goes well with the post-NAND generation. Meanwhile, Apple’s stock is rising on little more than the design of what amounts to a single, me-too phone. The iPhone 5 catches up with what its rivals have been delivering for a year—LTE, bigger displays, better media, smaller components like docking connectors. It’s a great business model: Design one decent, but not bleeding-edge smartphone, tablet and notebook a year. Give consumers something that’s arguably cool and useful, and avoid the risks of bleeding edge technology. Apple too could run aground, as Van Baker of Gartner pointed out to me in a chat at IDF. If it misses just once on one of its big annual product cycles, it could be hosed—losing a year of revenue, profits and panache as the company that sets mobile fashions. The risks are pretty big given the complexities in the software stack, the semiconductor and systems design chains and just plain human enterprise at this scale. Tim Cook, no doubt, buys Maalox by the case. At the end of the day, it was humbling—and just a bit frightening--to see these giant cruise ships pass so closely as they sailed down San Francisco’s Howard Street.