過去一段時(shí)間以來，手機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)彷佛上演了一部“功能手機(jī)終于垮臺(tái)”的電影，而擊倒功能手機(jī)的英雄則是蘋果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)。他們各自用智能手機(jī)接管了移動(dòng)世界，而諾基亞(Nokia)則因輕忽智能手機(jī)，未能及早掌握機(jī)會(huì)而招致失敗。。 簡(jiǎn)單點(diǎn)來說，這是大多數(shù)業(yè)界人士都會(huì)認(rèn)同的過程。 不過，這部電影會(huì)有什么結(jié)局？ 至少，我個(gè)人認(rèn)為，“垮臺(tái)的功能手機(jī)”可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)出人意料的另類結(jié)局(不過僅限藍(lán)光版本)。 任何一部?jī)?yōu)秀的驚悚片，都必須包含一些特定元素──如神鬼認(rèn)證系列中的Jason Bourne──我的意思是，功能手機(jī)在關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻必須被打倒，不過，在接下來的某個(gè)時(shí)刻，它又以“入門級(jí)”智能手機(jī)之姿重新現(xiàn)身。 所以，我期待有更多的續(xù)集，像是“功能手機(jī)──最終章”、“功能手機(jī)第二彈”、“功能手機(jī)大戰(zhàn)小怪獸”等等。在我看來，誰能抓住入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，誰就有可能在下一輪競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中獲得成功。 這些猜想合理嗎？你愿意打賭嗎？因?yàn)槲乙呀?jīng)看到一些跡象出現(xiàn)了。 首先是 Firefox 操作系統(tǒng)。雖然它還未獲得廣泛認(rèn)可，但這種基于HTML5的手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)仍足以在業(yè)界激起辯論。 40美元的智能手機(jī) 第二，是低成本智能手機(jī)領(lǐng)域所承受的固定市場(chǎng)壓力。今年六月初，展訊(Spreadtrum) CEO李力游接受《EE Times》采訪時(shí)表示，“我們客戶已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好今年內(nèi)推出 40美元智能手機(jī)了。”每一家芯片業(yè)者和手機(jī)供貨商都想盡方法推出低成本解決方案，因而讓市場(chǎng)上充滿了各種不同等級(jí)的智能手機(jī)。 第三，營(yíng)運(yùn)商都希望規(guī)劃一種可完全掌控使用者賬單的機(jī)制。“目前，只有少數(shù)營(yíng)運(yùn)商為 Android 規(guī)劃了專有的計(jì)費(fèi)機(jī)制，而且全部都集中在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，”IHS Screen Digest移動(dòng)分析師Daniel Glesson說?！捌渌膽?yīng)用程序或游戲等付費(fèi)機(jī)制，全都得透過信用 卡。顯然，營(yíng)運(yùn)商希望自己掌控，以便在龐大的應(yīng)用軟件市場(chǎng)中分得一小杯羹?！? 第四，由于蘋果 iOS 與 Google Android IP 之間的法律糾紛不斷升級(jí)，手機(jī)廠商也正暗中尋找替代系統(tǒng)──最好是能免費(fèi)提供。 第五，我們千萬別忘了在美國(guó)與歐洲以外，全球還有尚未使用智能手機(jī)的極巨大市場(chǎng)等待開發(fā)，這將為下一世代的新興行動(dòng)技術(shù)和行動(dòng)設(shè)備供貨商提供龐大商機(jī)。 總而言之，我深信，功能手機(jī)(好吧，是'入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)')絕不會(huì)消失，因?yàn)樵谖铱磥恚悄苁謾C(jī)與功能手機(jī)的定義根本沒什么意義。充其量不過是智能手機(jī)的支持者用來讓自己行銷更加方便的包裝罷了。 舉個(gè)例子，入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)和功能手機(jī)之間，究竟有什么明顯的分界？ 是操作系統(tǒng)？應(yīng)用處理器嗎？還是指手機(jī)具備執(zhí)行第三方應(yīng)用程序的能力？ 你可能會(huì)說以上皆備。然而，從使用者的角度來看，今天所謂的功能手機(jī)的功能已經(jīng)很豐富了──它們都搭載無線連接(Wi-Fi、GPS、行動(dòng)寬頻)；網(wǎng)絡(luò)存取以及整合CMOS傳感器相機(jī)等。 假設(shè)我是一家渴望躋身智能手機(jī)之列的功能手機(jī)供貨商。如果我改變操作系統(tǒng)，并讓我的新功能手機(jī)可以執(zhí)行一些應(yīng)用軟件，那么，理論上我就可以將它稱之為一 款入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)。我要做的只是在納入更多必要組件──包括CPU、應(yīng)用處理器、繪圖單元、內(nèi)存、操作系統(tǒng)、顯示器之后，盡可能維持低的系統(tǒng)成本。 在我看來，這就是 Firefox 操作系統(tǒng)之所以問世的真正原因。 如果你想將功能型手機(jī)變身為入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)，你可以用 Android 。但是， Firefox OS 卻可能達(dá)到更好的效果。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：Firefox操作系統(tǒng)造就100美元智能機(jī)

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• Nokia：功能手機(jī)未來仍有市場(chǎng)
• 低成本手機(jī)功能持續(xù)擴(kuò)展，制造商需要系列方案滿足各種變化FLjesmc

{pagination} IHS Screen Digest 移動(dòng)分析師Daniel Gleeson解釋道：“在新興市場(chǎng)中，F(xiàn)irefox操作系統(tǒng)可望獲得許多智能手機(jī)采用。首款采用該系統(tǒng)的終端零售價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將低于100美元，低于低階的 Android手機(jī)和三星的Bada平臺(tái)，甚至?xí)戎Z基亞的Asha 311等高階功能手機(jī)便宜?！? 更具體來看，IHS估計(jì)，若采用較低功耗的處理器和較少的內(nèi)存，大約可節(jié)省40～60美元左右。若手機(jī)可利用云端儲(chǔ)存，還可再進(jìn)一步節(jié)省成本，不過，由于這類手機(jī)主要瞄準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)較不發(fā)達(dá)的市場(chǎng)，因此這可能不是可行選項(xiàng)。 Mozilla已經(jīng)與Telefonica合作，在今年2月的巴塞羅那移動(dòng)世界大會(huì)中展示了其平臺(tái)和主要特色。 新平臺(tái)結(jié)合了HTML5，以及一些Linux核心要素。 IHS的Gleeson指出，“執(zhí)行HTML5意味著Mozilla可以從操作系統(tǒng)中拿掉許多中介軟件，讓針對(duì)CPU和內(nèi)存的軟件部份更加輕巧?！? 本月稍早，路透社報(bào)導(dǎo)“Telefonica公司表示，基于Firefox5的手機(jī)價(jià)格將大幅低于低階Android手機(jī)，這意味著不含電信業(yè)者補(bǔ)貼情況下，F(xiàn)irefox手機(jī)的定價(jià)水準(zhǔn)大約在50美元左右?！毕噍^之下，目前一部典型智能手機(jī)的價(jià)格大約為200美元。 對(duì)Firefox的品牌意識(shí) 在價(jià)格因素以外，Gleeson指出，部份市場(chǎng)如歐洲，也可能具有較強(qiáng)的Firefox品牌意識(shí)。他表示，“Android早已打入歐洲，但在西歐，智能手機(jī)普及率只有42%?！彼J(rèn)為“歐洲市場(chǎng)仍有空間容納更便宜、更易于使用的智能手機(jī)，特別是當(dāng)?shù)貙?duì)Android平臺(tái)忠誠(chéng)度并不高。在許多歐洲國(guó)家，F(xiàn)irefox是使用最廣泛的桌面瀏覽器，如法國(guó)，德國(guó)和波蘭(根據(jù)StatCounter)，因此Firefox在當(dāng)?shù)匾矒碛袕?qiáng)烈的品牌意識(shí)作為 發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)。” 當(dāng)然，還有巴西，這個(gè)Mozilla與Telefonica合作，首度推出基于Firefox操作系統(tǒng)手機(jī)的地方。 中國(guó)的TCL Communication Technology和中興通信(ZTE)將以Alcatel One Touch品牌推出全新的Firefox OS智能手機(jī)。不過，Gleeson在巴西看到了更大的機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)榘臀髂壳暗闹悄苁謾C(jī)滲透率仍然低于15%。 雖 然展訊的芯片并不是為了TCL或中興的首款Firefox OS手機(jī)所開發(fā)(事實(shí)上他們使用了高通(Qualcomm)的 Snapdragon 處理器)，但展訊已經(jīng)快速宣布將針對(duì)Mozilla的HTML5手機(jī)推出產(chǎn)品。展訊在2012年行動(dòng)通訊亞洲大會(huì)(Mobile Asia Congress 2012)上推出了采用其1GHz SC8810智能手機(jī)芯片的參考設(shè)計(jì)。并在Mozilla的攤位上展示執(zhí)行Mozilla的Firefox OS的模型。 然而，一個(gè)最根本的問題，在于 Mozilla 是否具備足夠的吸引力，能從頭建立Firefox OS生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，包括開發(fā)工具、應(yīng)用軟件，以及推動(dòng)開發(fā)者社群成形等。這是過去 Palm 在被惠普(HP)收購(gòu)前，一直未能為 WebOS 做到的。 Gleeson 指出， Firefox OS 和 WebOS 之間的最主要區(qū)別，就在于 Firefox OS 是完全免費(fèi)開放給所有OEM廠商。而WebOS則否。在惠普接手后沒多久，該公司更宣布完全停止發(fā)展WebOS。但另一方面，Mozilla看起來則是很 有可能長(zhǎng)期參與行動(dòng)市場(chǎng)。 他的評(píng)論非常公正。 許多市場(chǎng)分析師都認(rèn)為，新的Firefox平臺(tái)可吸引到300~500萬的網(wǎng)絡(luò)開發(fā)人員，進(jìn)而克服許多問題。大多數(shù)的應(yīng)用程序都是在HTML5上建構(gòu)的，而HTML5正是發(fā)展行動(dòng)瀏覽器內(nèi)容的首選標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 Gleeson 也同意上述觀點(diǎn)。“Firefox OS對(duì)開發(fā)人員來說是相當(dāng)好的平臺(tái)。它以HTML5為基礎(chǔ)，因此，開發(fā)人員不需要為了這個(gè)操作系統(tǒng)建立其應(yīng)用程序的本地版本；任何一種Web應(yīng)用程序都可 在該平臺(tái)上運(yùn)作。這也意味著該操作系統(tǒng)打從一開始就會(huì)有大量的應(yīng)用軟件支持。” Gleeson指出，“有好幾百萬人，特別是在新興市場(chǎng)，都將以手機(jī)作為連接網(wǎng)絡(luò)的主要媒介。對(duì)Mozilla來說，打入行動(dòng)市場(chǎng)，攸關(guān)著未來該公司能否參與相關(guān)行動(dòng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的制定。 出于類似的理由，入門級(jí)智能手機(jī)對(duì)于希望爭(zhēng)取市占率的新手機(jī)廠商也至關(guān)重要。那么，唯一剩下的問題，就是今天的主要手機(jī)業(yè)者還會(huì)繼續(xù)忽視這種入門級(jí)產(chǎn)品多久時(shí)間。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 編譯： Joy Teng 參考英文原文：The Feature phone rises (again?)，by Junko Yoshida

相關(guān)閱讀：
• 低價(jià)智能手機(jī)趕走功能機(jī)，沒有最低只有更低
• Nokia：功能手機(jī)未來仍有市場(chǎng)
• 低成本手機(jī)功能持續(xù)擴(kuò)展，制造商需要系列方案滿足各種變化FLjesmc

{pagination} The Feature phone rises (again?) Junko Yoshida NEW YORK -- We all feel like we’ve already seen the movie: “Downfall of the Feature Phones.” Our heroes are Apple and Samsung. They take over the world with their smartphones, while Nokia — the stereotype of the bumbling rival — ignores the early warning signs of smartphone ascendancy, spurns the lovely ingénue, Android, and ends up in bed with the Vamp of Redmond, Microsoft. As simplistic as this plotline sounds, it’s the narrative many in the industry have come to accept. But here’s the thing. Have we actually seen how this movie ends? I, for one, believe that the “Downfall of the Feature Phones” may have a surprising, alternative ending (but only in the Blu-Ray version). As in any good thriller, it goes, something like this: Just about when we all thought Jason Bourne — I mean, feature phones — must be dead this time, boing! They spring back to life and come back as… “entry-level” smartphones. I anticipate more switcheroo’s in sequels (“The Feature Phone Ultimatum,” “The Feature Phone Legacy,” “The Feature Phone vs. Godzilla”), in which incumbents who choose to ignore the new “entry-level” category (‘because it’s too low end’) are pitted against a host of newcomers who seize the opportunity to build a fortune on entry-level smartphones. Incumbents could get clobbered. Is it plausible? You bet. I already see signs that make such plots believable. First is the emergence of Firefox OS. While the jury’s still out on yet another new mobile OS, this HTML5-based mobile operating system may have enough power to stir the debate. $40 smartphone Second, there is mounting market pressure (from handset vendors and operators alike) for low, low-cost smartphones. In an interview with EE Times in early June, Spreadtrum’s CEO Leo Li was on the record by saying that “our customers are ready to roll out $40 ‘real’ smartphones this year.” Every chip company and handset vendor is in the market for a solution that makes all levels of smartphones possible at low cost. Third, operators are hatching a plot to retain full control of the billing relationship with subscribers. “Currently, operator billing is available for Android for only a handful of operators, all in developed countries,” according to Daniel Gleeson, an analyst on Mobile at IHS Screen Digest. “Otherwise payments for apps, games etc. go through credit card companies. Obviously operators would prefer that this goes through them as they would get a small slice of that pie as well.” Fourth, as legal wrangling escalates on Apple iOS vs. Google’s Android IP front, handset vendors are surreptitiously looking for an alternative system – possibly something available for free. Fifth, let’s not forget about a huge global market -- beyond the United States and Europe -- that hasn’t embraced smartphones yet. This creates big openings for developers of new technologies and new players on the mobile market. Above all, I’m convinced that feature phones (OK, “entry-level smartphones”) are not going away, largely because the definition of smartphones vs. feature phones, in my opinion, is fundamentally phony. At best, it’s based on a self-serving marketing pitch by smartphone proponents. For example, what exactly differentiates an entry-level smartphone from a feature phone? Is it an operating system? Is it an applications processor? Is it an ability to run third-party apps on one’s phone? You may say, all of the above. But from a user’s standpoint, a so-called feature phone today is already feature-rich — equipped with wireless connectivity (WiFi, GPS, mobile broadband), Internet access and an integrated CMOS sensor camera. Assume that I’m a feature phone supplier eager to get on the smartphone bandwagon. If I change the OS, and make sure my new feature phone runs a few apps, I could, in theory, call my feature phone an entry-level smartphone. All I need do is keep the system-level cost down – a CPU, apps processor, graphics, memory footprint, OS, display, all included. That’s where Firefox OS comes in – in my opinion. If you want to morph a feature phone into an entry-level smartphone, Android can help. But Firefox OS may be able to do the job better. Brand awareness for Firefox Daniel Gleeson, analyst on Mobile at IHS Screen Digest, explained: “In emerging markets, Firefox OS can play a large part in driving smartphone adoption. With the first device anticipated to retail at less than US$100, the devices will be cheaper than the lower-end Android phones, Samsung’s Bada platform, or even high-end featurephones such as Nokia’s Asha 311.” More specifically, IHS estimate that a saving of between $40 to $60 is possible based on a lower processor power and less memory. If the handset leverages cloud storage then further saving are possible, but for handsets headed for markets where 3G is underdeveloped this may not be a viable option. Mozilla, which has been working with Telefonica, demonstrated the platform and its key features in February at the Mobile World Congress trade show in Barcelona. The new platform combines HTML5 with some of the core elements of Linux technology. IHS’ Gleeson observed, “Running just HTML5 means that Mozilla can cut out a lot of middleware from the OS; making the whole package lighter on the CPU and on the memory.” Reuters, earlier this month, reported that “Telefonica has said the [Firefox5-based] phone price will be significantly cheaper than the low-end Android models, meaning Firefox phones can be priced at levels around $50 excluding operator subsidies.” This compares with a price of around $200 for a typical smartphone. Brand awareness for Firefox Price points aside, some markets like Europe may have stronger brand awareness for Firefox, according to Gleeson. He noted, “Android is already established in Europe, but smartphone penetration is only 42% in Western Europe.” He believes “there is room for cheap, easy to use smartphones for the prepay market in particular where the platform loyalty to Android will not be as strong. Firefox is the most widely used desktop browser in many European countries such as France, Germany and Poland (according to StatCounter), so there is also strong brand awareness to build on.” And then, of course, there is Brazil, first market Mozilla picked to roll out Firefox OS-based phones in cooperation with Telefonica. Smartphones powered by the new Firefox OS will be manufactured by China’s TCL Communication Technology, under its Alcatel One Touch nameplate, and by China's ZTE. Gleeson sees a larger opportunity in Brazil because Brazil has a much lower penetration of smartphones (less than 15%). Although Spreadtrum’s chip wasn’t designed into either TCL or ZTE’s first Firefox OS phones (they used Qualcomm’s snapdragon processors), Spreadtrum has swiftly announced that it, too, is ready to power Mozilla’s HTML5-based phones. At the Mobile Asia Congress 2012 last month, Spreadtrum built its own reference design using a 1GHz SC8810 smartphone chip. The model running Mozilla's Firefox OS was demonstrated at Mozilla’s booth, according to the company. One lingering issue with Firefox OS, however, is whether Mozilla can build from scratch an attractive enough ecosystem for Firefox’s OS platform -- developer tools, applications, and development community included. That’s something Palm failed to do with its WebOS, even before it was bought by Hewlett Packard. The key difference between Firefox OS and WebOS, Gleeson points out, is that Firefox OS is made open and free for any OEM to use right out of the box. WebOS was restricted to Palm, then HP. There was also a change of strategy within HP which provided the final nail in the coffin and the company stopped pushing mobile in any meaningful form. On the other hand, Mozilla is far more likely to be involved for the long-term., he noted. Fair enough. Many market analysts explain that the new Firefox platform could overcome the problem by tapping into a community of 3 to 5 million web developers. Most of the apps are already created on HTML5, the preferred standard for creating mobile browser content. Gleeson, too, agrees. “Firefox OS is very good for developers. It is HTML5 based, so developers do not need to build native versions of their apps to work on the OS; any web-app just works out of the box on the platform. It will also mean that the OS will have plenty of apps available from day one.” According to Gleeson, “Millions of people, particularly in emerging markets, will be relying on their phones as their primary method of internet access. For Mozilla to remain relevant in the future of internet standards creation, it is vital that it has a significant mobile presence.” For the same reason, entry-level smartphones will be vital for a new breed of handset vendors looking to gain a market share. The only remaining question, then, is how long incumbent mobile phone vendors could keep ignoring this entry-level category.