這種情形似乎不應(yīng)該發(fā)生在蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)──這家全世界市值最高以及最成功的消費(fèi)電子巨擘。然而，該公司近來業(yè)績表現(xiàn)下滑，最新一季的財(cái)報(bào)遠(yuǎn)不如分析師的預(yù)測。蘋果公司的股價(jià)不是應(yīng)該 持續(xù)抗跌，永遠(yuǎn)不會面臨像過去這幾天一樣的壓力嗎？帶有傳奇色彩的蘋果公司一旦表現(xiàn)過于“平凡”，反而讓我們感到大失所望。 誰會料想的到呢？蘋果公司的銷售額在過去兩年來已經(jīng)成長一倍以上了，預(yù)計(jì)到今年九月結(jié)算的第三季將可達(dá)到1,560億美元，象征該公司從2009年的430億美元開始展現(xiàn)263%的驚人成長力道。但很諷刺的是，有些觀察家指出蘋果公司巨大的成功已開始顯現(xiàn)下滑的跡象了。 當(dāng)然，有什么樣的公司能夠持續(xù)每年成長30%甚至更多？年復(fù)一年，而未見下滑？尤其，蘋果公司的成長是以犧牲其競爭對手為代價(jià)的，不過，如果因此就認(rèn)為蘋果的競爭對手只會在一旁眼睜睜地看著敵人吃掉他們午餐，其實(shí)并不真正了解資本主義的本質(zhì)。 所以，從蘋果本季營收不如預(yù)期這件事，我們可以學(xué)到幾件事。首先，它更讓我們確定一家公司無法永遠(yuǎn)平步青云。當(dāng)然，每個(gè)人應(yīng)該都明白這一點(diǎn)，但在電子產(chǎn)業(yè)、投資社群與消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域中 的許多人都視蘋果為日不落帝國。即使是現(xiàn)在，針對蘋果公司最近面臨的問題──如果這可稱之為問題的話──還有些人認(rèn)為這帶來了一個(gè)買入蘋果股票的大好機(jī) 會。我并不是一位投資分師，但經(jīng)過多年觀察高科技與經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域各種事件的心得，我知道蘋果公司將再度下滑。這應(yīng)該不至于讓大家感到震驚。 事實(shí)上，蘋果公司正面對著太多強(qiáng)大的競爭對手。此外，回歸到該公司的核心問題──蘋果的業(yè)務(wù)模式是奠基于極少數(shù)產(chǎn)品的成功。如 iPhone 就占了該公司一半以上的營收。當(dāng)然， iPhone 是一款十分成功的產(chǎn)品，但它能永遠(yuǎn)不斷地為市場帶來贊嘆聲嗎？當(dāng)它無法帶來更多的吸引力時(shí)，蘋果公司還有什么能用來維系用戶對于無線手機(jī)和平板電腦產(chǎn)品的忠誠度，特別是它還面對著虎視耽耽的競爭對手正迎頭趕上？ 如 果我是蘋果公司的供貨商，我會開始關(guān)注該公司產(chǎn)品推出的時(shí)間表，并積極地尋求得以提升營收基礎(chǔ)多樣化的產(chǎn)品。分析師們深信，由于蘋果公司將在今年秋季推出 新版 iPhone ，將使得蘋果業(yè)績開始反彈好轉(zhuǎn)。他們認(rèn)為該公司第二季營收出現(xiàn)下滑的情況，很可能是因?yàn)橘I家打算等新的 iPhone 推出后再下手。但是，我認(rèn)為這種商業(yè)論據(jù)其實(shí)存在瑕疵。因?yàn)?，就算有許多潛在客戶樂于等待六個(gè)月后再購買新產(chǎn)品，但其它消費(fèi)者也可能干脆直接選擇其它替代 性產(chǎn)品??！特別是就目前的實(shí)際情況來看，市場上已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)許多替代產(chǎn)品了。 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：后面還有一群對手追趕，做一款皆大歡喜的產(chǎn)品是越來越難

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{pagination} 最后，對于整個(gè)無線通訊產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，至今還沒有任何單 一公司在無線手機(jī)市場成功位居主導(dǎo)位置的時(shí)間，能夠像英特爾公司主導(dǎo)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)一樣長久。我相信新的市場主導(dǎo)廠商即將在幾年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)，而使蘋果在無線手機(jī)領(lǐng) 域逐漸式微；最有智能的組件供貨商們應(yīng)該努力試著找出并為服務(wù)下一家市場主導(dǎo)廠商作好準(zhǔn)備。我看好即將成功出線的廠商應(yīng)該會是三星電子(Samsung Electronics)，該公司已經(jīng)是全球最主要的無線手機(jī)供貨商了，但目前在該領(lǐng)域的利潤方面仍落后于蘋果公司。 我甚至 認(rèn)為，蘋果公司也將在未來三到五年內(nèi)失去目前在平板電腦市場主導(dǎo)地位。根據(jù)Strategy Analytic公司研究人員指出，蘋果在今年第二季的平板電腦出貨量達(dá)2,490萬臺，市占率達(dá)68%，主導(dǎo)大部份的平板電腦市場。而 Google Android 平板電腦則表現(xiàn)持平，僅占29%。 蘋果繼續(xù)地?cái)[脫來自Android陣營的威脅， iPad 的全球市占率也在2010年第三季達(dá)到最高水平...... 全 球 Android 平板電腦出貨量已經(jīng)增加一半以上，達(dá)到730萬臺。盡管市場對于像Amazon、三星、Acer與Asus也有很高的期待，但 Android 社群目前尚無法對蘋果在平板電腦市占率的主導(dǎo)位置帶來什么重大威脅。硬件設(shè)計(jì)不夠出色、接口設(shè)計(jì)以及平板最佳化服務(wù)有限等因素，都是影響 Andorid 性能與銷售的主要原因。 就像蘋果在三星迎頭趕上以前還能主宰智能手機(jī)市場多年一樣，蘋果同樣還會占有平板電腦市場主導(dǎo)地位好一陣子，但強(qiáng)大的競爭對手們正在加緊直追中。 Google Nexus 平板計(jì)算機(jī)以及 Amazon Kindle 將會逐漸削弱蘋果原有的主導(dǎo)地位。這就好象諾基亞(Nokia)公司曾經(jīng)超越摩托羅拉行動公司(Motorola Mobility)取得龍頭地位后又拱手讓座一樣，接下來，由蘋果主導(dǎo)智能手機(jī)市場的時(shí)代即將劃下句點(diǎn)，三星目前的智能手機(jī)出貨量已經(jīng)超過蘋果了，很 快地，蘋果最終也將失去目前在利潤方面的優(yōu)勢。 畢竟，它也只是一家平凡的企業(yè)。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：參考英文原文：Is Apple Becoming Too Human?，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Is Apple Becoming Too Human? Bolaji Ojo This was not supposed to happen to Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL). The world's biggest company by market value and the most successful consumer electronics company had had invincibility conferred upon it and should never have missed analysts' quarterly financial forecasts. Its share price should continue to defy gravity and must never come under the kind of pressure it's faced in the last few days. Apple disappointed us by appearing to be all too "human." Who would have thought that? Apple's sales have more than doubled in just the last two years and are projected to top $156 billion in its fiscal year ending in September. That would represent an astonishing 263 percent increase from $43 billion in fiscal 2009. But as some observers have pointed out, Apple's roaring success is, ironically, behind its latest slide. What company can continue to grow 30 percent or more annually, year-after-year, without tripping? Apple's growth came at the expense of its competitors, and anyone expecting them to just stand aside as a rival ate their lunches doesn't understand the capitalist system. So, here are the bigger lessons from Apple's earnings miss. First, it confirms the company can't walk on water. That should have been clear to everyone, but many in the electronics industry, the investment community, and the general consumer community were beginning to see Apple as infallible. Even now, there are those saying Apple's latest problem -- if one could call it a problem -- offers a buying opportunity. I am not an investment analyst, but after years of monitoring events in the high-tech and economic world, I know Apple will trip up again. It shouldn't surprise anyone. In fact, Apple is facing too many hungry competitors not to occasionally or regularly fail to meet inflated expectations. Plus, boiled down to its core, Apple's business model is based on the success of a handful of products. The iPhone, for example, accounts now for more than half of the company's sales. Sure, it's a winning product, but will it forever continue to wow the market? And when it fails, what else will Apple use to maintain its stranglehold on the wireless handset and tablet PC sectors as rivals catch up, which they inevitably will? If I were a supplier to Apple, I would be concerned about its product rollout schedule, and I would be looking eagerly for ways to diversify my revenue base. Analysts insist that Apple will bounce back in the fall when it is expected to introduce the latest update to the iPhone. It's possible that the second calendar quarter revenue miss happened because buyers were holding off on buying the iPhone because they want the updated device. But this is a bad business proposition. Even if many of its potential customers are happy to wait six months or more to get the latest product, other consumers will simply opt for the alternative. And, in this case, there are plenty of alternatives. One final lesson here for the entire wireless communications industry: No single company has successfully stayed atop the leader board in wireless handsets for as long as, say, Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) has dominated the semiconductor industry. I believe a new market leader is bound to emerge within years and eclipse Apple in wireless handsets, and the smartest components executives should be trying hard to identify and warm up to the next market leader. This may be Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC), which has already become the top wireless handset vendor in the world, but still lags Apple in the amount of profits made from the sector. I will even go long and say Apple's leadership of the tablet PC market, too, will end in the next three to five years. Today, researcher Strategy Analytics announced Apple overwhelmingly dominated the tablet PC industry in the second quarter, with its share of the market rising to 68 percent of the 24.9 million devices shipped. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)'s Android-based tablets were flat at 29 percent, and overall shipment increased 67 percent for all devices, according to Strategy Analytics: Apple continued to shrug off the much-hyped threat from Android and the iPad's global tablet share is at its highest level since Q3 2010... Global Android tablet shipments grew by more than half to 7.3 million units. Despite high expectations for companies like Amazon, Samsung, Acer and Asus, the Android community has yet to make a serious dent in Apple’s dominance of the tablet market. Unspectacular hardware designs, limited uptake of cellular models and a modest number of tablet-optimized services have been among some of the main reasons for Android’s mixed performance so far. Just as it reigned atop the smartphone market for years before Samsung caught up, Apple will be dominant in tablet PCs for a while longer, but rivals are bound to catch up. Google's Nexus tablet and Amazon's Kindle will help whittle down its leadership. Just as Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) zipped past Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) but then lost its crown, Apple's domination of the smartphone market has already ended (Samsung now ships more smartphones than Apple), and it will eventually lose the profit trophy, too. It's only human, after all.