手機(jī)芯片大廠高通(Qualcomm)CEO Paul Jacobs 近日表示，他們不排除擁有一家芯片制造廠的可能性。盡管高通是排名全球第五大芯片供貨商，手頭還有60億美元左右的現(xiàn)金，但筆者并不認(rèn)為Jacobs的意思是高通將在短時(shí)間內(nèi)脫離無晶圓廠芯片公司的行列；取得所有權(quán)的手段有很多種，而且?guī)缀醵寂c策略聯(lián)盟或是尋求共同點(diǎn)有關(guān)。 果然，近日據(jù)臺(tái)灣中經(jīng)社旗下《經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)新聞》的報(bào)道稱，高通公司已經(jīng)和三星和聯(lián)電（UMC）簽訂合作協(xié)議，后兩者將會(huì)為高通代工供應(yīng)28nm制程的工藝芯片，以解決高通公司驍龍Snapdragon S4系列處理器供應(yīng)短缺的狀況。 業(yè)界普遍認(rèn)為，高通此舉將緩解臺(tái)積電28nm制程工藝產(chǎn)能不足而帶來的相應(yīng)芯片缺貨現(xiàn)象。目前高通絕大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品均由臺(tái)積電代工生產(chǎn)。 報(bào)道中稱，預(yù)計(jì)總部位于臺(tái)灣新竹的聯(lián)電將在2012年第四季度開始供應(yīng)28nm制程工藝的Snapdragon S4處理器以及3G/4G基帶芯片。 根據(jù)估算，聯(lián)電供應(yīng)給高通的產(chǎn)能在3000-5000片晶圓/每月，約為臺(tái)積電產(chǎn)能的20-33%。據(jù)稱高通驍龍S4以及28nm制程基帶產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)使用聯(lián)電28nm CMOS工藝流片成功并通過驗(yàn)證。而關(guān)于高通和三星的合作，國外Slashgear網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，高通把28nm的部分訂單交給了三星。三星并未透露這筆訂單的具體情況。。 高通在想些什么？ 作為業(yè)界有名的高富帥，高通要建立自己的晶圓廠應(yīng)該不難，為什么要跑到競爭對(duì)手的工廠中送錢呢？在選擇工廠時(shí)，他們又看重哪幾點(diǎn)呢？我們來揣測一下高通的想法。 要建立晶圓廠不但前置時(shí)間很長、費(fèi)用也很高──目前最先進(jìn)制程晶圓廠興建成本約在50~100億美元──高通會(huì)跨足芯片制造幾乎是不可能的事情。高通也可以 去收購或是取得某家現(xiàn)有晶圓廠的部分股權(quán)，來生產(chǎn)其處理器；部分獲利狀況不佳的晶圓廠也許會(huì)對(duì)這樣的交易有興趣，但是幾乎大部分具備28nm、20nm制程能力的芯片制造廠都很賺錢。 但雖然先進(jìn)制程晶圓廠的資本支出負(fù)擔(dān)龐大，高通確實(shí)有很多可用現(xiàn)金，也有意改變芯片缺貨、無法滿足客戶需求的現(xiàn)狀。因此還有一種可能性較高的方法是，高通會(huì)被要求先投入一筆現(xiàn)金，以保留某家現(xiàn)有先進(jìn)制程晶圓廠的部分產(chǎn)能；這種一方面是投資、一方面 是預(yù)付款項(xiàng)的交易在過去就已經(jīng)存在，不過通常都無法長久維持。 Jacobs表示，28nm制程芯片供應(yīng)情況已經(jīng)逐漸改善，高通預(yù)期在2012年底就能滿足客戶的需求；所以，如果他的意思是高通正在尋找新的晶圓代工伙伴，誰會(huì)是最有可能的對(duì)象？首先，Jacobs真正會(huì)有興趣合作的，應(yīng)該只有那些具備優(yōu)良先進(jìn)制程技術(shù)能力的廠商，就像高通長期伙伴臺(tái)積電。 另一家也來自臺(tái)灣的晶圓代工廠聯(lián)電(UMC) 幾乎不太需要考慮，雖然聯(lián)電會(huì)很需要高通的金援，但是并不清楚高通的投資值不值得。英特爾目前也擁有先進(jìn)制程技術(shù)，但對(duì)Jacobs來說很困擾的一點(diǎn)是， 英特爾會(huì)是想趁高通28nm應(yīng)用處理器供應(yīng)不足時(shí)見縫插針的一個(gè)競爭對(duì)手；剩下的還有同是競爭對(duì)手的三星，還有技術(shù)成熟的純晶圓代工業(yè)者 GlobalFoundries。 三星正積極擴(kuò)張其晶圓代工業(yè)務(wù)，并已經(jīng)在為蘋果(Apple)的iPhone與iPad用 芯片代工；對(duì)三星來說，何不花點(diǎn)錢擴(kuò)充生產(chǎn)線、并為高通保留部分產(chǎn)能？高通也許會(huì)是三星在蘋果之外的另一個(gè)助益良多的替代/補(bǔ)充客戶，因?yàn)閾?jù)說蘋果可能會(huì)考慮將部分芯片代工訂單轉(zhuǎn)往臺(tái)積電，而且業(yè)界消息指出，Jacobs近日曾拜訪三星討論半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)問題。 再來還有 GlobalFoundries，該公司在美國紐約州有一座全新的晶圓廠；對(duì)GlobalFoundries來說，越快進(jìn)入量產(chǎn)越好，而且該公司在晶圓代工產(chǎn)業(yè)界算是新秀，應(yīng)該會(huì)偏好全心服務(wù)少數(shù)客戶。筆者可以預(yù)見，高通等幾家少數(shù)業(yè)者會(huì)愿意花錢取得GlobalFoundries紐約州新晶圓廠的第一批保證產(chǎn)能。 除非Globalfoundries 的幕后金主──ATIC──政策出現(xiàn)大轉(zhuǎn)彎，筆者不認(rèn)為該公司會(huì)把紐約州晶圓廠賣給高通，或是由高通所主導(dǎo)的無晶圓廠芯片供貨商聯(lián)盟之類；不過 Globalfoundries有可能會(huì)向這類客戶取得一筆預(yù)付款──這是延續(xù)其在NAND閃存領(lǐng)域的習(xí)慣──再將該筆款項(xiàng)投資在紐約州晶圓廠的產(chǎn) 能擴(kuò)充，甚至在阿布達(dá)比興建另一座晶圓廠。 高通最后沒有選擇執(zhí)行力有點(diǎn)問題，但不存在競爭關(guān)系的GlobalFoundries，而是帶點(diǎn)競爭色彩，但執(zhí)行力優(yōu)良、技術(shù)能力緊追英特爾之后的三星，會(huì)不會(huì)養(yǎng)虎為患呢？ 編譯：Judith Cheng 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 本文下一頁：參考英文原文：On Qualcomm's manufacturing options，by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} On Qualcomm's manufacturing options Peter Clarke So Paul Jacobs CEO of Qualcomm Inc. (San Diego, Calif.) doesn't rule out owning the means of chip production? (see Qualcomm wafer fab not ruled out). Although Qualcomm, as fifth largest chip company, has about $6 billion of cash on hand, I don't think Jacob's reported sentiment means that Qualcomm is going to leave the ranks of the fabless any time soon. There are many ways to finesse ownership issues and almost all of them will be about partnership and finding common ground. So for me this disclosure is more about the likes of Globalfoundries, Samsung and Intel, versus Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. and playing one of against another than it is about the creation of the Qualcomm Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Such is the long lead-time and high expense of bring up wafer fabs – typically between $5 billion and $10 billion at today's leading-edge – it is almost impossible to think Qualcomm would start from scratch on chip manufacturing. An alternative would be for Qualcomm to buy all or a part-share in an existing wafer fab that can produce its processors. Some chip manufacturers are struggling for profitability and might be willing to cut a deal, although most of the chip companies able to manufacture at 28-nm and 20-nm are in a more profitable situation. Nonetheless at the leading-edge capital expenditure is ferocious and Qualcomm has been piling up the cash and has interest in changing a situation that has left it short of chips and disappointing customers. Another more likely possibility is that Qualcomm would be asked to put a significant amount of cash down to reserve a proportion of the output of an existing leading-edge wafer fab's output. Such part equity, part pre-payment deals have existed in the past although the circumstances that have driven their creation have not always been long-lived. And Jacob's himself has said that the 28-nm chip supply situation is improving and Qualcomm would hope to be meeting customers' requirements by the end of 2012. So if Jacob's musings are about partnership who is he thinking about partnering with? Samsung or Globalfoundries First of all Jacob's can only be really interested in working with companies that are at least as good in terms of manufacturing process technology as its incumbent long-term supplier TSMC and who also have a good manufacturing technology roadmap. That almost but not quite takes United Microelectronics Corp. (Hsinchu, Taiwan) out of contention. A cash injection from Qualcomm might be what UMC needs but it is not clear that is where Qualcomm would be advised to send its "big checks." Intel has an edge in manufacturing process technology right now, which must be worrying for Jacobs, but it is also a competitor seeking to capitalize on Qualcomm's 28-nm application processor supply problems. This leaves Samsung also a competitor, but one with a more mature and distinct foundry operation, and GlobalFoundries. Samsung is eager to expand its foundry operation, which is already doing essential work for Apple's iPhone and iPad products. Why not take a chunk of cash to convert additional manufacturing lines and reserve the output for Qualcomm? For Samsun Qualcomm might also make a useful replacement or complement for Apple which may be thinking of switching at least some of its production to TSMC. That Jacobs has, reportedly, visited Samsung recently for discussions that included semiconductor supply adds weight to this possibility. And then there is GlobalFoundries Inc. with its brand new wafer fab in Malta, Saratoga County, in upstate New York. The faster the ramp the better for GlobalFoundries and as a relative beginner in the foundry business it probably prefers supporting relative few customers wholeheartedly. I could see a deal in which Qualcomm and a few others write "big checks" to get a guaranteed first call on the output of the New York wafer fab. Unless the Abu Dhabi government and the sovereign wealth fund – the Advanced Technology Investment Company – that controls Globalfoundries suffers a complete U-turn in policy I don't see them selling off the New York wafer fab to Qualcomm or to a consortium of fabless chip companies assembled around Qualcomm. But it could take some up-front money from such a set of customers – as has become customary in the NAND flash memory business – and then re-apply that money to expansion in New York, and building a next wafer fab in Abu Dhabi. And whether that wafer fab would have a G or a Q on the outside of the building is a little way down the road. The choice comes down to the non-competitive pure-play foundry, GlobalFoundries, against whom there is a question mark on execution; and the competitive Samsung, a company which usually executes well and which is closer on the heels of Intel.