日本企業(yè)曾經(jīng)把電視看作每個起居室中的關(guān)鍵要素，對于刺激其它一系列消費電子產(chǎn)品的需求增長非常重要。但現(xiàn)在電視業(yè)務(wù)已變成日本企業(yè)的負擔(dān)，耗費其資源，并威脅其前途。
日本三大消費電子廠商索尼、Panasonic和夏普，都面臨電視業(yè)務(wù)低迷的問題。沒有一家公司擁有解決這種困境的靈丹妙藥，而媒體和分析師最青睞的對策則非常直白而又令人吃驚：
從電視產(chǎn)業(yè)滾出去，而且要快。
日本日經(jīng)商務(wù)周刊(Nikkei Business)周一(5月21日) 在其封面放了一個大膽的標(biāo)題：“沙揚娜拉，電視。”
“醒醒吧，日本企業(yè)，”該文警告道，“死抱著電視業(yè)務(wù)，同時虧損不斷增加，最后將被淹死。該拋棄電視了?！?
這種結(jié)論基于一種悲觀的假設(shè)，許多產(chǎn)業(yè)專家都支持這種假設(shè)：平板電視廠商可能永遠不能再度擠出利潤。殘酷的現(xiàn)實是，日本平板電視供應(yīng)商沒有什么選擇余地，只能賠本銷售面板，或者干脆全面停止銷售面板。
但日經(jīng)商務(wù)周刊的文章忽視了一個可能很重要的歷史教訓(xùn)：美國企業(yè)在20世紀80年代終止電視生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)，標(biāo)志著美國品牌消費電子廠商開始停止在美國生產(chǎn)、開發(fā)和設(shè)計活動。Zenith變成了韓國的LG，RCA變成了中國的TCL，其它廠商則在千禧年美國工業(yè)的下滑中，成為歷史。
但這可能不是太重要。顯然，對于許多日本人來說，Panasonic、索尼和夏普三大平板電視廠商不再能通過生產(chǎn)電視來賺錢，令人沮喪。
但還有一個事實也令人苦惱，那就是電視業(yè)務(wù)不僅是個拖累，而且正在消耗這三大廠商的元氣。
陷入困境的日本消費電子廠商(截止于2012年3月的財年)
在截至今年3月的財年，Panasonic凈虧損7720億日圓(約92.6億美元)。索尼亦凈虧損4570億日圓(約合55.5億美元)。夏普虧損3760億日圓(約合45.7億美元)。這三家公司都紛紛裁員，而且都宣布了大規(guī)模重組計劃。
當(dāng)然，日圓升值、日本東部大地震、泰國洪水和歐洲市場形勢惡化等因素，也沖擊了日本三大廠商的利潤。但被視為罪魁禍首的還是平板電視業(yè)務(wù)。這三家廠商都大膽擴張電視業(yè)務(wù)，幾乎到了盲目的程度，最終導(dǎo)致利潤萎縮。
本文下一頁：放棄電視就能脫困？未必！
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
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市場調(diào)研公司NPD DisplaySearch今年稍早指出，2011年全球電視出貨量下降，這是該公司2004年開始追蹤全球電視出貨量以來的首次下降。出貨量減少了0.3%至2.477億臺。
據(jù)該公司，盡管2011年液晶電視出貨量增長7%至2.05億臺以上，但“與前幾年兩位數(shù)的增長率相比，增長放顯放緩”。NPD DisplaySearch得出的結(jié)論是：“2011年等離子電視出貨量減少近7%至1720萬臺，是迄今最大降幅，CRT出貨量減少34%，液晶增長不足以抵消二者的下滑?！?
過多庫存導(dǎo)致出貨下降，尤其是在2011年初美國和歐洲市場。NPD DisplaySearch的北美電視研究總監(jiān)Paul Gagnon解釋道，此外，在日本政府推出的節(jié)能家電補助計劃“Eco-Points”結(jié)束后，日本市場的需求急劇下降。該計劃在2009-2010年掀起換機熱潮。
有人可能會猜測，2011年平板電視需求下滑實際上把日本電視巨頭推下了懸崖。
但日本三大廠商結(jié)束電視業(yè)務(wù)的想法到底有多么堅定，仍然存在疑問。他們真的相信擺脫電視業(yè)務(wù)就一定能恢復(fù)盈利嗎？
也許事情沒那么簡單。
但是，顯而易見的是，這三大廠商正在進入后電視時代，盡管他們的戰(zhàn)略和投入明顯不同。
對于Panasonic來說，“后電視”相當(dāng)于“非電視”，意即利用其等離子技術(shù)生產(chǎn)數(shù)字標(biāo)牌、數(shù)字黑板和戶外顯示器。Panasonic據(jù)稱把2012年等離子電視出貨量削減了一半至250萬臺，60%的等離子面板(50英寸以上)將面向非電視市場。在截至2013年3月的本財年，Panasonic將把總體平板電視(包括液晶在內(nèi))出貨量從1752萬臺降至1550萬臺。目前Panasonic面臨的較大問題是，利用什么產(chǎn)品來彌補電視產(chǎn)量減少導(dǎo)致的營業(yè)收入下降。
索尼新任首席執(zhí)行官平井一夫不愿意說索尼正在逃離電視產(chǎn)業(yè)。但平井一夫有意未把電視列入三大核心業(yè)務(wù)：數(shù)字影像，游戲和移動。他稱這三項業(yè)務(wù)是“One Sony”理念的新重點。
平井一夫已采取關(guān)鍵步驟來重組索尼的電視業(yè)務(wù)，例如，退出了與三星的液晶生產(chǎn)合資企業(yè)。此舉很重要。由于電視銷售黯淡，索尼從該合資企業(yè)購買的面板很少，索尼需要向三星支付數(shù)以億計美元的費用和罰金。
但是，索尼將繼續(xù)在電視業(yè)務(wù)上面虧損，該公司預(yù)計到明年3月將再度虧損800億日圓(但是，據(jù)索尼所言，這與今年電視業(yè)務(wù)虧損1480億日圓相比，是一個很大的改善。)
夏普采取的行動可能最劇烈，允許臺灣鴻海精密持有9.9%的夏普股權(quán)，鴻海創(chuàng)始人郭臺銘把自己的資金投入到夏普的Sakai工廠，獲得了該工廠的46.5%股權(quán)。雖然許多人猜測這宗交易是鴻海收購這家有百年歷史的日本企業(yè)的第一步，但夏普認為郭臺銘對Sakai工廠的投資非常關(guān)鍵。Sakai工廠于2009年投入運行，能夠處理超大尺寸的玻璃基板，被視為是液晶面板生產(chǎn)方面的一個重要里程碑。但是，問題是其產(chǎn)能利用率一直只有50%，令人非常失望。
金融分析師認為，鴻海有很強的實力，可能會生產(chǎn)iTV，那樣將搶了韓國同業(yè)的生意。郭臺銘顯然有雄心，但結(jié)果仍然不確定。
夏普與其它兩家日本電子巨頭最后一點不同是，夏普現(xiàn)在更想成為關(guān)鍵的設(shè)備供應(yīng)商，而不是全面的電視供應(yīng)商。
如果日本企業(yè)未來只能放棄電視制造業(yè)務(wù)，幾個有意思的問題浮現(xiàn)腦海：索尼是否會成為下一個RCA？Panasonic成為下一個Philco，夏普是21世紀的Zenith？
編譯：Luffy Liu
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文：Will Japan Inc. say sayonara to TV manufacturing? By Junko Yoshida
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Will Japan Inc. say sayonara to TV manufacturing?
Junko Yoshida
TOKYO – The TV set – once regarded by Japan Inc. as the focal point of every living room, essential to fuel growing demand for a host of other consumer devices – has turned on its parents, draining their resources and threatening their future.
Japan’s Big Three consumer electronics companies -- Sony, Panasonic and Sharp -- are suffering from TV fatigue. While no company seems to have a silver bullet to fix this gloomy situation, the strategy most touted by the media and among analysts here is both blunt and startling:
Get the hell out of the TV business — and fast.
Nikkei Business, the Japanese business publication, put a daring headline on the cover of its latest issue on Monday (May 21): "Sayonara, TV."
“Wake up, Japan, Inc," the story warns. "By clinging to the TV business, while accumulating losses, you’re treading water on the way to drowning. It’s time to abandon TV.”
That assessment is based on a pessimistic assumption shared by an apparent plurality of industry experts: flat TV manufacturers may never again be able to squeeze out profits. The hard reality is that Japan’s flat TV suppliers have little choice but to sell their panels at a loss, or forsake selling them at all.
The Nikkei Business story, however, overlooks a possibly significant historical lesson: Ending TV manufacturing in the 1980’s marked the beginning of the end of production, development and engineering activities for U.S.-branded CE companies in the United States. Zenith became LG of Korea, RCA became TCL in China, and the rest fits into the bleak pre-millenial history of American industrial decline.
But all that might not matter so much. Clearly, it’s upsetting to many in Japan that Panasonic, Sony and Sharp – the three biggest flat TV manufacturers here – are no longer making money on TV manufacture.
But also upsetting is the fact that the TV business isn’t just a drag. It’s sucking the life out of the big three.
Ailing Japanese CE manufacturers (fiscal year ending March, 2012)
In the fiscal year ending in March this year, Panasonic recorded a whopping net loss of 772 billion yen (about $9.26 billion). Sony also reported to stockholders a net loss of 457 billion yen ($5.55 billion). Sharp lost 376 billion yen ($4.57 billion) during the same period. Heads rolled at all three companies, while each of the big three announced major restructuring plans.
Of course, the stronger yen, the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake, floods in Thailand and the deterioration of European market conditions also hammered the big three’s bottom line. But tabbed as the main culprit is the flat TV business – wherein all three, almost blindly, pursued bold expansion plans that ended up shrinking profits.
As NPD DisplaySearch pointed out earlier this year, worldwide TV shipments in 2011 fell for the first time since the market research firm began tracking global TV shipments in 2004. They slipped 0.3% to 247.7 million units.
Although LCD TV shipments increased by 7% to over 205 million units in 2011, this marked “a substantial slowdown from the double-digit growth in previous years,” according to the company. “With plasma TV shipments declining almost 7% in 2011 to 17.2 million units, the largest decline yet, and CRT shipments falling 34%, LCD growth was not enough to offset these declines,” NPD DisplaySearch concluded.
Excessive inventory caused the reduced shipments -- particularly in early 2011 for the U.S. and European markets. Further, the Japanese market saw a sharp drop in demand following the end of the government-sponsored ‘Eco-Points’ program that previously caused a surge in replacement activities during 2009 -2010, explained Paul Gagnon, NPD DisplaySearch Director of North America TV Research.
One could surmise that slipping demand for flat TVs in 2011 virtually pushed the Japanese TV giants off the cliff.
But questions remain as to how seriously each of the big three is committed to folding its legacy TV business. Do they really believe that getting out of the TV business is a surefire answer to restoring profitability?
Maybe business isn’t that simple.
However, clearly the big three are edging a post-TV era, although their strategies and their depth of commitment vary distinctly.
For Panasonic, “post-TV” equals to “non-TV,” meaning using its plasma technology for digital signage, digital blackboards and outdoor displays. Panasonic is reportedly cutting plasma TV shipments by half to 2.5 million units in 2012, while 60 percent of plasma screens – bigger than 50-inch – will be shifted to the non-TV market. Panasonic will reduce its overall flat TV shipments (including LCDs) from 17.52 million to 15.5 million units in the current fiscal year ending March, 2013. The bigger question for Panasonic now is with what other products can possibly make up the reduced revenue expected from the TV reduction.
New Sony CEO Kazuo Hirai would not say that Sony is fleeing the TV business. But Hirai deliberately left TV out of the three “core businesses” -- digital imaging, games, and mobile -- he touted as the new focus for “One Sony.”
Hirai has already taken key steps to restructure Sony’s TV operations, pulling out, for example, of an LCD manufacturing joint venture with Samsung. This move was essential. Sony was paying Samsung hundreds of millions of dollars in fees and penalties because poor TV sales meant it was buying too few panels from the shared business.
Nonetheless, Sony’s losing streak in the TV business will continue as the company expects to lose another 80 billion yen by next March.(However, this is a big improvement, according to Sony, over this year’s 148 billion-yen deficit in the TV business.)
Of the big three, Sharp perhaps took the most drastic steps, by allowing Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (trading as Foxconn) to take a 9.9 percent stake in Sharp, with the Taiwanese firm's billionaire founder Terry Gou putting his own money into Sharp’s Sakai fab – gaining a 46.5 percent share of it. While speculation abounds that the deal is the first step for the Taiwan EMS giant to take over the 100-year old Japanese company, Sharp sees Gou’s investment in the Sakai fab as critical. The Sakai fab – opened in 2009, capable of handling super large glass substrates – is considered an important milestone in LCD panel production. However, the problem is that its run-rate has consistently remained at a disappointing 50 percent.
Financial analysts see the Taiwan firm in a strong position to push for a deal to manufacture the Apple TV, potentially taking the business from Korean rivals. Gou’s ambition is clear but the outcome remains uncertain.
The final factor setting Sharp apart from the other two Japanese giants, though, is that Sharp is now more committed to becoming a key device supplier, rather than a full-fledged TV supplier.
If the abandonment of TV manufacture is the future in Japan, a few intriguing questions come to mind: Is Sony the next RCA? Is Panasonic the next Philco, and Sharp the Zenith of the 21st century?
責(zé)編：Quentin
