盡管泰國(guó)在去年發(fā)生毀滅性的大水患，先前的紅衫軍暴 動(dòng)也帶來政治動(dòng) 亂，但這些事件都并未拖垮泰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)或甚至讓其它電子制造商對(duì)于這個(gè)亞洲國(guó)家抱持敬而遠(yuǎn)之的態(tài)度。事實(shí)上，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)成長(zhǎng)以及IT支出攀升，對(duì)于尋求更多元化供應(yīng)鏈并促進(jìn)業(yè)務(wù)銷售的制造商而言，泰國(guó)已經(jīng)變得更具有吸引力了。 根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金(IMF)統(tǒng)計(jì)，今年泰國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)估將成長(zhǎng)5.5%。IDC的報(bào)告也指出泰國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)氐腎T支出將攀升至110億美元，在東南亞國(guó)家聯(lián)盟(ASEAN)中的排名僅次于印尼。泰國(guó)央行預(yù)計(jì)2013年的經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)還將達(dá)到7.5%。 這是一個(gè)積極且快速復(fù)蘇的故事，展現(xiàn)了泰國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)所具有不屈不撓的韌性，以及國(guó)際投資人與制造商期望維持泰國(guó)作為抗衡中國(guó)主導(dǎo)該區(qū)制造業(yè)的一種努力。對(duì)于泰國(guó)的企業(yè)與政府而言， 從去年水患中迅速復(fù)蘇的行動(dòng)正明白地告訴國(guó)外投資者：就算面對(duì)無法預(yù)期或排山倒海而來的天災(zāi)人禍，這個(gè)國(guó)家所具有的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)位置也依然屹立不搖。 而對(duì)于幾百家在泰國(guó)營(yíng)運(yùn)的外國(guó)企業(yè)而言，尤其是電子產(chǎn)業(yè)中的硬盤領(lǐng)域，這個(gè)國(guó)家仍然位居一個(gè)重要的采購、組裝與制造中樞，仍能協(xié)助廠商保護(hù)其業(yè)務(wù)順利運(yùn)作，以免變得過度依賴中國(guó)。 經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇需要政府和企業(yè)之間更多的合作與協(xié)調(diào)。去年令人震驚的大水患波及了接近湄南河(Chao Phraya River)附近的廠房專區(qū)。例如，為硬盤制造商提供零組件的公司受到大洪水的嚴(yán)重沖擊。這場(chǎng)天災(zāi)一度中斷了供應(yīng)鏈下游的廠商，并造成全年的PC銷售量大幅下滑。 就像這場(chǎng)洪水來勢(shì)洶洶一樣，在泰國(guó)銀行(BOT)調(diào)度財(cái)政措施的協(xié)助下，造成2011年內(nèi)存產(chǎn)業(yè)崩潰的情況也迅速地退去。IMF一度支持泰國(guó)央行的援助行動(dòng)，但目前則擔(dān)心財(cái)務(wù)激勵(lì)方案如果未能正確管理，也可能適得其反。根據(jù)IOT表示，IMF已經(jīng)觀察到一些現(xiàn)象了： “泰國(guó)當(dāng)局因應(yīng)去年水患的政策已經(jīng)推動(dòng)了強(qiáng)勁的復(fù)蘇...短期前景看好，但由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性以及防洪措施的進(jìn)展情況，明顯仍然存在著不利的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！? “當(dāng)前擴(kuò)張財(cái)政和貨幣政策的立場(chǎng)是正確且恰當(dāng)?shù)?。然而，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇穩(wěn)定并朝向中期強(qiáng)化路線發(fā)展時(shí)，泰國(guó)當(dāng)局應(yīng)放緩資金支持政策的腳步。目前所面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)是在維持宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定并促進(jìn)成長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)也應(yīng)該加速重建。” IDC 所作的評(píng)估更具有建設(shè)性。IDC表示，“盡管目前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不明，加上最近發(fā)生的水患危機(jī)使泰國(guó)的商業(yè)活動(dòng)陷于停頓，”但泰國(guó)的IT支出仍強(qiáng)勁上揚(yáng)。而這并不只是因?yàn)檎疄槠銲T市場(chǎng)開出建設(shè)大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的支票而已，“消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)等方面都在技術(shù)方面投入大筆金錢?！?IDC亞太區(qū)副總裁Chris Morris說，泰國(guó)對(duì)于IT服務(wù)的需求主要受到“投資于制造設(shè)備的出口，以及快速成長(zhǎng)的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)”所帶動(dòng)的。 對(duì)于跨國(guó)企業(yè)而言，這更是一大福音。泰國(guó)正迅速地復(fù)蘇成為一個(gè)制造業(yè)的中心，這將有助于減輕供應(yīng)鏈的壓力，以及免于受到中國(guó)孤立成為單一供應(yīng)來源的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在高科技設(shè)備方面，泰國(guó)也是一個(gè)成長(zhǎng)中的市場(chǎng)。這完全是一個(gè)雙贏的局面。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Thailand Rises From Floods，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Thailand Rises From Floods Bolaji Ojo Neither last year's devastating flooding nor the Red Shirt political turmoil that preceded it has kept Thailand's economy down or scared electronics manufacturers away from the Asian country. In fact, with the economy growing and IT spending surging, Thailand has become even more attractive for manufacturers seeking to diversify their supply chain and boost sales. This year, the Thai economy is forecast to grow a sizzling 5.5 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund. And IDC reports that IT spending there will rocket up to $11 billion, second behind only Indonesia among ASEAN nations. Thailand's Central Bank said economic growth in 2013 is projected to be an even stronger 7.5 percent. It's a positive recovery story that tells as much about the tenacity of Thailand's local enterprises as it does about the desire of international investors and manufacturers to keep developing the nation as a counterweight to China's domination of manufacturing in the region. For Thai businesses and the government, a quick recovery from last year's flooding demonstrates clearly to foreign investors that the country's competitive position can be maintained even in the face of overwhelming odds. And for the hundreds of foreign businesses operating in Thailand, especially the electronics industry's hard disk drive sector, the country remains a vital procurement, subassembly, and manufacturing hub that can help shield their operations from becoming too dependent on China. The economic recovery required special coordination between the government and businesses. Last year's frighteningly intense floods pointed to the delicate location of plants near the Chao Phraya River. For instance, companies that supply components to hard disk drive manufacturers were heavily impacted by the flooding. The disruption hurt companies downstream in the supply chain and drove PC sales down for the entire year. Like the floods, the memory of the 2011 disruptions is receding fast, helped by fiscal measures coordinated by the Bank of Thailand (BOT). The IMF has supported the central bank's actions but is now concerned that the fiscal stimuli could be counterproductive if not properly managed. According to the BOT, the IMF has made these observations: 1. The Thai authorities' policy response to last year's floods has propelled the strong recovery... The short-term outlook is favorable, but significant downside risks still remain due to uncertainties from the global economy and the progress of flood-prevention measures. 2. The current expansionary fiscal and monetary stances are appropriate. However, the authorities should unwind the supportive policy stance as the recovery takes hold and move to a medium-term consolidation path. The main challenge is to speed up reconstruction while maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting inclusive growth. The IDC assessment is even more salutary. The research firm said IT spending is rising strongly in Thailand "despite the current gloomy global economy and the recent flood crisis that brought the nation's business activities to a standstill." It's not just the government that is writing big infrastructure checks for the IT market, though. "Consumers and enterprises alike are spending big money on technology." Chris Morris, associate vice president of IDC Asia/Pacific, said Thai demand for IT services is being driven "mainly by investment in facilities for manufacturing exports and a fast-growing consumer sector." This must be sweet music to multinational companies. Thailand is bouncing back as a manufacturing center and helping to relieve pressures on the supply chain and insulate it from the single-sourcing jeopardy posed by China. It is also a growing market for high-tech equipment. It's a win-win all the way.