為了挽救公司頹勢(shì)， ST-Ericsson CEO Didier Lamouche 日前公布的一連串新策略在某種層面看來是合理的，但也有點(diǎn)像是走衰運(yùn)賭徒的孤注一擲；該公司沒有──或者說不能──選擇出售至少一部份實(shí)質(zhì)業(yè)務(wù)，并尋求新的后援或支持，使得其計(jì)劃看來了無新意。
ST-Ericsson打算裁員25%、 約1,700人，似乎有些心狠手辣，對(duì)那些即將丟掉飯碗的員工來說也很不幸──此舉也透露了該公司所面臨問題的嚴(yán)重性。在歐洲，這種裁員計(jì)劃必須提交工會(huì)或是員工代表團(tuán)進(jìn)行協(xié)商，這可能會(huì)是個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)過程，并從很多方面為公司的退場(chǎng)添加成本。這并不是眾家分析師想聽到的，與過去有明確果斷區(qū)隔的策略。
Lamouche 提及，成本削減策略的目標(biāo)是在2014年讓公司達(dá)成獲利，這看來是頗具耐心且長(zhǎng)期性的計(jì)劃，但在這期間移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)會(huì)怎么發(fā)展沒人知道；在ST- Ericsson的組織重整計(jì)劃于2013年底即將顯現(xiàn)效果時(shí)，市場(chǎng)會(huì)繼續(xù)變動(dòng)并有眾多提供ARM核心SoC的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手冒出頭，行動(dòng)更敏捷、后臺(tái)更硬，而且在那個(gè)時(shí)候，移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的爆發(fā)成長(zhǎng)力可能已走下坡。
更重要的是，沒有任何出售計(jì)劃，意味著 ST-Ericsson 的虧損還是會(huì)持續(xù)拖累母公司意法半導(dǎo)體(STMicroelectronics)的財(cái)務(wù)表現(xiàn)，這將會(huì)讓股東與財(cái)務(wù)分析師們不滿，而這代表ST恐怕沒有耐心可以等到2014年。
ST-Ericsson 的新策略是做為一家移動(dòng)設(shè)備SoC平臺(tái)與固件開發(fā)商，并以自家或取得授權(quán)的IP為基礎(chǔ)，創(chuàng)造平臺(tái)化解決方案。Lamouche所提到的ModApp，是指ST-Ericsson將提供的“數(shù)據(jù)機(jī)+應(yīng)用處理器平臺(tái)”；該公司將持續(xù)開發(fā)專長(zhǎng)的調(diào)制解調(diào)器IP，但ARM核心應(yīng)用處理器核心以及該部門大約500名員工，將轉(zhuǎn)往ST。
根據(jù)ST-Ericsson說法，以上將轉(zhuǎn)往ST任職的500名左右員工也包含在1,700人裁員計(jì)劃中；但該公司首席營運(yùn)官Carlo Ferro又說，其應(yīng)用處理器部門的數(shù)百名員工，并非即將裁員的1,700人之中的大多數(shù)。
ST-Ericsson與ST合作在某方面來說是唯一明智的選擇，因?yàn)榱糇×讼騺肀挥靡晕⒘糇】蛻舻奶幚砥髋c平臺(tái)產(chǎn)品藍(lán)圖；但在另一方面，與ST合作會(huì)為財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表帶來災(zāi)難，因?yàn)檫@么做只是把痛處移到另一個(gè)地方，并沒有創(chuàng)造龐大的附加價(jià)值或是財(cái)務(wù)效益。
Lamouche表示ST-Ericsson是經(jīng)過考慮，才從四家伙伴中選擇與ST合作，但他沒說其它人是誰。要建立一個(gè)手機(jī)平臺(tái)，其它關(guān)鍵IP包括無線連結(jié)、電源管理以及模擬/混合訊號(hào)；其它還有一些非關(guān)鍵部分，但看來也需要更多外來資源。
分析師估算，ST-Ericsson若要達(dá)成其獲利目標(biāo)，未來每一季的營收運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)率(revenue run rate)與毛利率(gross margins)分別需要達(dá)到4億美元與40%；而該公司最新一季的財(cái)報(bào)(2012第一季)顯示，該公司的營收為2.9億美元，凈虧損3.12美元。我們現(xiàn)在所得知的信息可能只是真相的一小部分，而顯然會(huì)有許多外包交易會(huì)陸續(xù)浮現(xiàn)，其母公司也確實(shí)看起來不太爽。
早就退出與 Sony合資之手機(jī)公司的Ericsson，最近把ST-Ericsson 首席技術(shù)官召回己用，看來也是對(duì)后者失去了興趣。ST-Ericsson要如何找個(gè)愿意出手的買主也是問題，也許Sony會(huì)有興趣，但該公司自己也面臨獲利危機(jī)；無論如何，就像前面所述，ST股東幾乎不太可能會(huì)認(rèn)為在接下來兩年繼續(xù)支持ST-Ericsson會(huì)是個(gè)好策略。
也許我們將會(huì)看到的是，ST-Ericsson會(huì)釋出特定部門以換取技術(shù)授權(quán)機(jī)會(huì)，并讓僅存的ModApp平臺(tái)業(yè)務(wù)得以出售；該公司想擁有任何價(jià)值，除了得不斷贏得客戶青睞，恐怕就是得繼續(xù)裁員、繼續(xù)想辦法節(jié)省成本。
編譯：Judith Cheng
本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載
參考英文原文： Analysis: ST-Ericsson rescue plan underwhelms，by Peter Clarke
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Analysis: ST-Ericsson rescue plan underwhelms
Peter Clarke
LONDON – The plan put together to try and transform the fortunes of struggling mobile chip company ST-Ericsson NV by CEO Didier Lamouche, announced Monday (April 23), at one level makes a kind of sense, but it also looks like the last throw of the dice by an unlucky gambler.
The fact the company has not opted to – or not been able to – sell off at least a substantial part of its operation and get new backing and support makes the plan underwhelming. The fact that ST-Ericsson plans to cut 1,700 jobs or about 25 percent of the work force may seem radical – and is certainly unfortunate for those that will be thrown out of work – but it also underlines the size of the problem. And in Europe such plans must be referred to works councils and worker representatives, which is likely to slow down and add cost to the company's exit from a number of sites. It is not the clean and decisive break with the past that many analysts were hoping to hear.
Lamouche talked a good game about cost reduction to halve the break-even point with a view to achieving profitability in 2014. That makes it look like a patient and long-term plan. But while Lamouche may have that much patience it is not clear that the mobile device market does. By the time the ST-Ericsson restructuring plans start to yield results, towards the end of 2013, the market will have moved on and plenty of companies, more agile and with more secure backgrounds, will be there offering ARM-based SoCs by then, a time when mobile device growth may have slowed from its present sky-rocket rates.
More importantly the lack of a sell-off means that ST-Ericsson's losses will continue to be consolidated within the financial results of parent STMicroelectronics NV and continue to act as a drag on ST's performance. This will cause exasperation among both shareholders and financial analysts, which in turn may mean that ST will not be allowed to have the patience to stick with the plan through 2014.
The plan as laid out is for ST-Ericsson to be a developer of mobile device SoCs and firmware to create "platforms" based on a mix of home-grown and licensed-in IP blocks.
Lamouche called the strategy ModApp indicating that ST-Ericsson would put together modem-plus-application processor platforms. To that end ST-Ericsson will continue to develop modem IP, which it considers its crown jewels, but the ARM-based application processor cores and about 500 jobs are being passed to STMicroelectronics. These are part of the 1,700 jobs being cut out of ST-Ericsson. We don't know the exact number but Carlo Ferro, chief operating officer, said the application processor group represented several hundred jobs but by no means the majority of the 1,700 jobs being axed.
On one hand ST-Ericsson working with ST is the only sensible option because it preserves the processor and platform roadmap with which it has been using to try and attract design wins. On the other hand working with ST is balance sheet disaster because it appears to just be moving the pain around without creating a great deal of added value or financial efficiency. Lamouche said ST-Ericsson had considered four partner companies before deciding to work with ST, without revealing names.
However, companies may express interest in a rescue plan just to get a look at the books and the senior management of a struggling competitor to help them execute the final coup do grace later. It is not clear that any other ARM licensees were ever serious contenders to take over ST-Ericsson's app processor activities.
Only half the story
The other key building blocks are wireless connectivity and power management, analog and mixed-signal. These are also non-critical and it would seem that more outsourcing deals may be on the cards.
However, if ST-Ericsson is to reach its targets, analysts reckon the company still needs to increase revenue run rate and gross margins to about $400 million per quarter and 40 percent, respectively. In its most recent financial results for 1Q12 the company made a net loss of $312 million on sales revenue of $290 million.
It would seem that what we have been told so far is less than half the story. Clearly there may be more outsourcing deals to come but the parents also look decidedly uncomfortable.
Ericsson, which recently took back the ST-Ericsson CTO into its own employ, has disentangled itself from its handset joint-venture with Sony and so looks decidedly less interested in ST-Ericsson. It may be a question of finding a buyer at almost any price. Sony itself might be a contender only it is suffering its own crisis of profitability.
And as outlined above it seems inconceivable that STMicroelectronics shareholders could think it a good deal to carry ST-Ericsson for the next two years.
Perhaps what we will see is the movement of certain technology development operations out of ST-Ericsson to create licensing opportunities, thereby allowing the remaining ModApp company to be sold off. But to have any value it has to continue to get design wins, must continue to lay off engineers and must continue to drive down cost.
