大約在一年前，EBN與其它媒體報(bào)導(dǎo)了有關(guān)日本發(fā)生強(qiáng)烈地震與海嘯的消息。如今，日本福島核電廠四周仍是一片荒地，但半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)并未如原先預(yù)期般受到地震沖擊與重挫。根據(jù)IHS iSuppli公司的觀察，日本在半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的主導(dǎo)地位其實(shí)早在地震發(fā)生前就已經(jīng)動(dòng)搖多年了。 不幸的是，日本的半導(dǎo)體廠商在災(zāi)后發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)眾所周知但卻從未被公開(kāi)承認(rèn)過(guò)的問(wèn)題：日本不再居于半導(dǎo)體組件制造的主導(dǎo)地位了。隨著強(qiáng)震引發(fā)的種種沖擊，日本半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)遲來(lái)的復(fù)蘇總算浮出臺(tái)面成為真正的議題。 但市場(chǎng)研究公司質(zhì)疑日本芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)是否能夠反彈。我認(rèn)為一個(gè)更好的問(wèn)題是，就算讓日本半導(dǎo)體制造業(yè)回到2011年以前的水平，對(duì)于整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)或日本是否會(huì)更好呢？無(wú)論是二者的哪一種情況，我的答案都是否定的。 在 2011年以前，全球半導(dǎo)體制造業(yè)主要集中于日本。IHS iSuppli公司指出，總部位于日本的供貨商在2003年全球半導(dǎo)體營(yíng)收約占27%。但到了2011年，這一數(shù)字已下降到19%，不過(guò)日本仍是全球供應(yīng)鏈的重要角色──甚至在強(qiáng)震后業(yè)界普遍預(yù)期將發(fā)生短缺現(xiàn)象。不過(guò)，推測(cè)中的供應(yīng)鏈短缺情況并未發(fā)生，因?yàn)殡娮赢a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中已經(jīng)累積了過(guò)剩的庫(kù)存。日本一些制造業(yè)的停擺，在更有效的庫(kù)存管理措施因應(yīng)下，協(xié)助避免了一場(chǎng)可能發(fā)生的重大短缺現(xiàn)象。 整個(gè)業(yè)界也開(kāi)始了解到，將某種產(chǎn)業(yè)完全集中在一個(gè)地區(qū)是相當(dāng)危險(xiǎn)的做法。在這方面，地理區(qū)的問(wèn)題就和經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題一樣重要。像去年發(fā)生的日本強(qiáng)震與海嘯所造成的災(zāi)難規(guī)模就足以徹底催毀任何集中于不適當(dāng)?shù)貐^(qū)的各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)。這一點(diǎn)我們也可從泰國(guó)水災(zāi)及其對(duì)于硬盤產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響看出端倪。 中國(guó)在制造業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位最終將為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)出警訊。全球股市漲跌取決于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，同時(shí)，中國(guó)貨幣的任何波動(dòng)都會(huì)為股市帶來(lái)震蕩?，F(xiàn)在，整個(gè)世界也開(kāi)始擔(dān)心稀土元素(REE)的全球供應(yīng)以及中國(guó)對(duì)于礦物控制的議題。 日本的半導(dǎo)體廠房設(shè)施只需進(jìn)行重建更新，就能使電子供應(yīng)鏈回到2011年以前的密集情況。日本與電子產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)該投資于重建日本的半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)，同時(shí)致力于專注在下一代技術(shù)發(fā)展。根據(jù)IHS iSuppli公司： 作為全球主要的半導(dǎo)體制造地區(qū)之一，日本目前擁有最少數(shù)的幾家300毫米先進(jìn)晶圓廠以及最多座技術(shù)成熟的6吋晶圓廠。在日本的廠商十分抗拒關(guān)閉先進(jìn)廠房設(shè)施的趨勢(shì)，寧可選擇外包制造或?yàn)楝F(xiàn)有的先進(jìn)設(shè)施重建制造廠房。昔日曾經(jīng)是世界上最先進(jìn)的半導(dǎo)體制造業(yè)之一，今日的日本半導(dǎo)體制造業(yè)務(wù)對(duì)于世界上其它地區(qū)而言已相對(duì)較老舊了。 重建日本半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)并不是指一對(duì)一的交換，或讓日本晶圓廠產(chǎn)量回到2011年的水平。進(jìn)行投資應(yīng)精心策劃并取得平衡?；蛟S半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)能夠借鏡相近的一些技術(shù)，如顯示器技術(shù)。LCD的制造十分類似于半導(dǎo)體。更理想的是，目前世界上還沒(méi)有太多的OLED 廠。除了半導(dǎo)體晶圓廠以外，日本還擁有芯片制造與測(cè)試設(shè)備方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)。OLED需要使用沉積設(shè)備，玻璃、電路以及用于切割、黏合與測(cè)試的設(shè)備。因此，在此便可發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)能夠跳脫現(xiàn)有顯示器產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)的新機(jī)會(huì)。 根據(jù)IHS iSuppli公司，日前出現(xiàn)一個(gè)能夠減少部份地震損害的提議。該提議呼吁將瑞薩電子(Renesas Electronics)、富士通(Fujitsu Ltd.)和松下(Panasonic Corp.)等公司的制造業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)整并起來(lái)。 該計(jì)劃將設(shè)計(jì)與制造區(qū)分為兩種不同類型的公司。此外，該提案還要求提供大量的資金注入，以振興這些制造廠商。但可惜的是，該計(jì)劃明顯地降低了半導(dǎo)體制造。 這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃真的能為日本晶圓制造業(yè)帶來(lái)復(fù)蘇嗎？IHS公司認(rèn)為可能性不高。 當(dāng)全球主要的芯片制造公司轉(zhuǎn)移到次28nm制造之際，日本正面臨國(guó)內(nèi)目前還沒(méi)有公司有能力采用該先進(jìn)技術(shù)節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行量產(chǎn)制造的事實(shí)。歷史告訴訴我們成功是由經(jīng)驗(yàn)累積而來(lái)的。如果沒(méi)有一個(gè)能夠取得經(jīng)驗(yàn)與進(jìn)展的強(qiáng)大技術(shù)平臺(tái)，日本要能成功實(shí)現(xiàn)28nm生產(chǎn)的機(jī)會(huì)并不大。 我認(rèn)為日本的未來(lái)前景并不至于多么坎坷，除非它想回到2011年的窘?jīng)r。當(dāng)日本一次次地向全世界展現(xiàn)它們能夠達(dá)成所設(shè)定的任何目標(biāo)時(shí)，它也超越了從損壞中復(fù)蘇并瞄準(zhǔn)更高目標(biāo)的層次。這是一個(gè)能夠重新定義汽車制造業(yè)、并成為消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品和芯片制造業(yè)主導(dǎo)者的國(guó)家。它可以接受無(wú)情的破壞，但卻不會(huì)被擊倒。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Post-Quake Japan Should Aim Beyond Chips，by Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor

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{pagination} Post-Quake Japan Should Aim Beyond Chips Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor About a year ago, EBN and others were reporting about the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The area around the Fukushima nuclear plant remains a wasteland, but the semiconductor industry didn't suffer as badly as expected from the quake. According to IHS iSuppli, Japan's leadership in the semiconductor industry was already under siege years before the earthquake: Unfortunately for Japanese semiconductor companies, the disaster uncovered an issue that had been known but not openly acknowledged: Japan is no longer in a leadership position for the manufacturing of semiconductor components. The long-overdue revitalization of the Japanese semiconductor industry has surfaced as the real issue. The market research firm also questioned whether the Japanese chip industry will ever bounce back. I think a better question is whether returning the country's semiconductor manufacturing industry to pre-2011 levels a good idea for the industry or for Japan? I think the answer is "no" in both instances. Before 2011, the semiconductor manufacturing industry was concentrated heavily in Japan. IHS iSuppli says suppliers headquartered there generated 27 percent of global semiconductor revenue in 2003. By 2011, that figure had dropped to 19 percent, but Japan was still providing a significant portion of the global supply -- to the extent that a shortage was widely anticipated after the quake. That didn't happen, largely because of excess inventory building in the electronics supply chain. Suspension of some manufacturing in Japan, combined with diligent inventory management, helped avert a drastic shortage. As the world is now discovering with China, concentrating an industry in one place is a dangerous practice. This is as much an economic problem as a geographic one. A disaster the size of last year's earthquake and tsunami could wipe out any number of industries if it were centered in the wrong place. We saw this with the flooding in Thailand and the hard disk drive industry. China's domination of the manufacturing industry is finally raising red flags through the global economy. Stocks rise and fall depending on China's economic outlook, and any movement in its currency sends shock waves throughout the financial markets. Now the world is worried about the global supply of REEs and China's control of the minerals. Simply replacing Japan's semiconductor factories could put the electronics supply chain back to where it was before 2011 in terms of concentration. Japan and the electronics industry should invest in rebuilding the country's semiconductor industry, as long as the effort focuses on next-generation technology. According to IHS iSuppli: Of the major global semiconductor manufacturing regions, Japan now has the smallest number of number of advanced 300-millimeter wafer fabs and the largest number of mature 6-inch wafer fabs. Companies in Japan have resisted the trend of closing mature facilities and either outsourcing manufacturing or rebuilding manufacturing facilities to current state-of-the-art facilities. Once one of the world’s most advanced semiconductor producers, Japan’s semiconductor manufacturing operations have become senescent relative to the rest of the world. Rebuilding this industry shouldn't involve a one-for-one swap to bring the country's fab population back to 2011 levels. Investment should be carefully orchestrated and balanced. Perhaps the semiconductor industry can move toward adjacent technologies, such as displays. LCDs are manufactured much like semiconductors. Better yet, there aren't many OLED factories anywhere in the world. In addition to semiconductor fabs, Japan has strength in chip manufacturing and test equipment. OLEDs require deposition equipment (more like inkjet) as well as glass, circuits, and equipment for cutting, sizing, and testing. There's an opportunity here to leapfrog the current display infrastructure -- which, by the way, is heavily concentrated in Taiwan. According to IHS iSuppli, a proposal emerged last month that would undo some of the damage from the earthquake. The plan called for the consolidation of manufacturing operations at Renesas Electronics Corp. (Tokyo: 6723), Fujitsu Ltd. (Tokyo: 6702; London: FUJ; OTC: FJTSY), and Panasonic Corp. (NYSE: PC): The plan separates out design and manufacturing into two separate companies. Furthermore, the proposal calls for a large capital injection to revitalize the manufacturing company. Sadly, the plan is really a well-disguised roadmap for significant reduction in semiconductor manufacturing. Can the plan actually lead to the revitalization of wafer manufacturing in Japan? IHS believes it is highly unlikely. As the leading chip manufacturing companies transition to sub-28-nanometer manufacturing, Japan is facing the fact that it currently has no company capable of volume manufacturing using this advanced technology node. History has shown that success is driven by experience. Without a strong technical platform on which to gain experience and move forward, there is little chance of the country achieving the transition to sub-28-nanometer production. I don't think the outlook for Japan is that dire, unless the country wants to bring itself back to parity with 2011. As it has shown the world again and again, the country can reach any goal it sets. It should reach beyond repairing the damage and aim for something higher. This is the country that redefined automotive manufacturing and became a leader in consumer electronics and chip manufacturing. It's damaged, but it isn't broken.