就在iPad 3預(yù)料將于3月初發(fā)表之前，有關(guān)搭載7.85吋屏幕的迷你版iPad早已在市場(chǎng)上傳得沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)了。其中還牽扯出了許多的消息──包括在富士康電子(Foxconn Electronics Inc.)不斷地調(diào)高工資之際，蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)計(jì)劃大量生產(chǎn)低成本的平板裝置── 8G 版iPad 2。但對(duì)于我們的讀者來說，最實(shí)際的問題就是供應(yīng)、需求以及上市時(shí)程。 讓我們回顧以下一些新聞事件： 2011年9月：亞馬遜(Amazon)發(fā)表Kindle Fire，起價(jià)199美元。 2012年2月14日：蘋果公司據(jù)傳正設(shè)計(jì)搭載較小尺寸屏幕的iPad。 2012年2月28日：蘋果發(fā)出媒體邀請(qǐng)函，一般預(yù)料將發(fā)表iPad 3。 2012年3月1日：媒體報(bào)導(dǎo)較小尺寸的iPad將在第三季開始量產(chǎn)。 根據(jù)媒體報(bào)導(dǎo)，7.85吋iPad的價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)大約在249美元到299美元之間。很顯然地，蘋果公司正試圖從Amazon.com和Barnes＆Noble供應(yīng)低成本平板電腦的市場(chǎng)分一杯羹。 根據(jù)IHS iSuppli公司統(tǒng)計(jì)，蘋果已經(jīng)在平板電腦領(lǐng)域占有60%的市占率。該公司在2011年第四季所遭遇到的最大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手就是它自己──蘋果旗下產(chǎn)品 iPhone 分食掉一部份的 iPad 銷售量。 7.85 吋iPad上市可望帶來什么樣的需求？我認(rèn)為較小尺寸的平板電腦將會(huì)是一款十分熱賣的暢銷商品。加上第三季又是加速假期銷售業(yè)務(wù)的旺季，從 Amazon.com的Kindle Fire熱賣就可以看到這是多有利潤(rùn)的大好時(shí)機(jī)。對(duì)于因?yàn)?011年上市時(shí)iPad價(jià)格過高而未出手的人來說，只要再等一年就只要花249 美元就能買到當(dāng)然很值得。 對(duì)于這種情況會(huì)產(chǎn)生最大疑問的就是蘋果公司自己。如果一如預(yù)期地，蘋果在3月8日發(fā)表iPad 3，將會(huì)對(duì)于市場(chǎng)需求將會(huì)造成什么影響？如果按照蘋果設(shè)定的模式，消費(fèi)者們應(yīng)該會(huì)馬上一窩蜂地排隊(duì)去買iPad 3。這些消費(fèi)者大概都是沒有iPad 2的族群吧？ 或者，他們是果粉？那么不管是什么價(jià)格或在任何地點(diǎn)，蘋果迷們都會(huì)去買任何蘋果商品。 假設(shè)蘋果已經(jīng)掌握了60%的平板電腦市場(chǎng)，那么該公司還有其它40%的市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)。但這40%的族群都是擁有其它品牌平板電腦的人嗎？還是完全沒有任何平板電腦的人？ 我自己就是一個(gè)沒買任何平板電腦的人，但我的心態(tài)是想等一款低價(jià)的iPad上市。通常，我會(huì)想要盡可能有最大尺寸屏幕的產(chǎn)品，但目前的iPad價(jià)格對(duì)我來說仍然太貴了。而且小尺寸的平板電腦也擁有一些優(yōu)點(diǎn)，例如比較好攜帶。 有沒有可能iPad 3尺寸變小又賣得比iPad 2便宜呢？如果真是這樣的話，就完全不必考慮249美元的iPad了吧？ 此外，更令人不解的是，媒體報(bào)導(dǎo)蘋果也預(yù)計(jì)推出349-399美元的8GB iPad 2 (有些媒體報(bào)導(dǎo)8G iPad 2的價(jià)格是299美元)，而16GB iPad2的價(jià)格也降到了449美元了。 無論如何，對(duì)于蘋果供應(yīng)鏈名單上的組件供貨商來說，這些都是好消息。 蘋果公司目前的市值已經(jīng)比某些國(guó)家的GDP更高了。顯然地，該公司現(xiàn)正大力推動(dòng)量產(chǎn)。一旦組件經(jīng)出售后，不管是蘋果或任何一家EMS，供貨商都會(huì)把它列入銷售記錄。要將產(chǎn)品退回給供貨商并不容易，除非它有明顯的缺陷。 對(duì)于不在蘋果供應(yīng)鏈名單上的組件供貨商來說，這可能仍是一大福音。2011年的多起事件已經(jīng)讓供應(yīng)鏈學(xué)到采用單一供應(yīng)來源所冒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。蘋果對(duì)于所使用的組件通常至少保持兩家以上的供應(yīng)來源。如果成本是蘋果的考量因素之一，那么供貨商們都應(yīng)該致力于開發(fā)其它較低成本的同類型組件，才能取得進(jìn)入蘋果供應(yīng)鏈的機(jī)會(huì)。 無疑地，這也將刺激到Amazon、B&N和三星等公司開始提供更低價(jià)或差異化的平板電腦。如果還要考慮任何負(fù)面影響的話，也就只是針對(duì)蘋果公司的立場(chǎng)了。想想看如果 iPhone 真的威脅到iPad的銷售，那么一家公司又能和自己對(duì)立競(jìng)爭(zhēng)多久？我真的不知道。 我想我還是繼續(xù)用自己的這支手機(jī)一陣子吧！但我很想問問那些蘋果迷們的想法，你愿意買低價(jià)的 iPad 嗎？ 我想我可能會(huì)。 編譯：Susan Hong 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Will You Buy a Cheaper iPad?，by Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor

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{pagination} Will You Buy a Cheaper iPad?， Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor Reports of a scaled-down iPad with a 7.85-inch screen have been circulating widely just before the anticipated release of the iPad 3. There are a lot of implications, including the idea that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) will be churning out less expensive devices, despite the wage increases at Foxconn Electronics Inc. But for EBN's audience, the real questions are about supply, demand, and timing. Let's recap the events: September 2011: Amazon launches the Kindle Fire at $199. (See: Is Hardware's Loss Retail's Gain?) Feb. 14, 2012: Reports say Apple is designing iPads with smaller screens. (See: Behind Apple's Alleged Move to Small Screens.) Feb. 28, 2012: Apple sends out invitations to a company event, believed to be the iPad 3 release. March 1, 2012: Digitimes reports that volume production of the smaller iPad will begin by the third quarter. The anticipated price point of the 7.85-inch iPad is $249 to $299, Digitimes reports. Apple is clearly trying to take share away from the low-cost tablets offered by Amazon.con and Barnes & Noble. Apple already commands 60 percent of the tablet market, according to IHS iSuppli. Its biggest competitor in the fourth quarter of 2011 was itself -- iPhones ate into iPad sales, IHS iSuppli says. (See: Smartphone Surge Heralds End of Tablet Era?) What kind of demand would there be for a 7.85-inch iPad? I think that, left to its own devices (pun intended), the smaller tablet would be a huge seller. The third quarter is the ramp-up for holiday sales, and Amazon.com showed just how profitable good timing can be with the Kindle Fire. Anyone shying away from the high price of the iPad in 2011 could certainly justify waiting a year to spend $249. But the biggest problem with this scenario is Apple itself. If, as expected, it releases the iPad 3 next week, what will this do to demand? If consumers follow their typical pattern, they'll line up immediately for the iPad 3. These consumers presumably would be people who do not own an iPad 2. Or would they be? Apple "fanboys" will buy any Apple product at any time for any price. Assuming Apple already controls 60 percent of the tablet market, it still needs to reach the other 40 percent. Is this group made up of people who own other tablets? Or do they own no tablet at all? As a nonowner, my inclination is to wait for the cheaper iPad. Normally, I'd want the biggest screen possible, but the current iPad price is still too steep for me. There are advantages to a smaller tablet, including portability. I'd still have to drag it out at airports, along with my laptop. But that's another issue altogether. There is still a possibility, though unlikely, that the iPad 3 will be smaller and sell for less than the iPad 2. But if that were the case, why bother with the $249 iPad at all? And just to confuse matters further, Digitimes reports that Apple is also expected to release an 8GB iPad 2 for $349-$399, and that it has lowered the price of the 16GB iPad 2 to $449. This is all good news for the component suppliers on Apple's vendor list. (See: Who's on Apple's Supplier List?) Apple -- which now has a market cap bigger than the GDP of some nations -- is clearly ramping up production. Once a component is sold, whether to Apple or an EMS, suppliers book it as a sale. It is very difficult to return a product to a supplier, unless there is a clear defect. For component suppliers not on the list, this could still be a boon. The events of 2011 have taught the supply chain that single sourcing is a dangerous game. Apple should always have at least two sources for the components it uses. If cost is a factor, suppliers should be looking to develop comparable, lower-cost parts to get a foot in Apple's door. This will no doubt spur Amazon, B&N, and Samsung to provide even less expensive or differentiated tablets. If there is any downside to all of this, it's to Apple. How long can a company compete against itself? Is the iPhone the real threat to the iPad? I really don't know. I'll be holding on to my phone until my next upgrade comes along. But I'd like to ask those Apple fans out there what they think. Will you buy a cheaper iPad? I probably will.