據(jù)IHS iSuppli公司的市場研究報告，美國美光與日本爾必達如果合并，可能導致DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)格局發(fā)生劇烈變化，合并而成的新企業(yè)將在全球DRAM市場排名第二，可能挑戰(zhàn)韓國三星電子的龍頭地位。 最近幾周關于美光正在談判，準備投資或者收購爾必達的傳言甚囂塵上。爾必達連續(xù)五個季度虧損，負債沉重。雙方都沒有公開承認有此類磋商。 據(jù)IHS公司，如果合并，二者的合計晶圓月產(chǎn)能(WSPM)將達37.4萬片。它將占全球DRAM產(chǎn)能的28%，僅次于目前排名第一的的韓國三星電子。目前三星的晶圓月產(chǎn)能是43.3萬片，占全球產(chǎn)能的33%。 IHS公司表示，爾必達和美光的DRAM產(chǎn)能各自排名通常是第三和第四。DRAM版圖重新劃分之后，韓國海力士半導體的排名將從目前的第二降到第三，其晶圓月產(chǎn)能是30萬片左右，占全球產(chǎn)能的23%。 IHS公司 DRAM與記憶體資深首席分析師Mike Howard表示，美光與爾必達合并將形成三星最強大的競爭對手。他說：“三星電子通常領先于最近它的對手10個百分點，但這次合并將把三星市場份額的領先優(yōu)勢削弱一半至5個百分點?！? Howard表示，美光與爾必達合并或者采取其它聯(lián)合形式，都將面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是爾必達的高額債務。他說，去年第三季度末爾必達的未償債務為40億美元。他補充道，由于工廠建造費用可能極其高昂而且經(jīng)常需要債務融資，所以DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)對于巨額負債并不陌生。盡管如此，美光絕對不愿意背上更多負債。 Howard指出，堅挺的日元匯率以及美光與臺灣南亞科技之間的合作，也可能妨礙美光與爾必達合并。IHS公司表示，另外，美光首席執(zhí)行官Steve Appleton在2月3日因飛機失事意外去世，可能導致事情復雜化，尤其是Apple¬ton提倡整合，而且可能是任何潛在交易的背后推手。 IHS公司認為，二者合并除了可以提高產(chǎn)能以外，還有其它一些好處。對于爾必達來說，可以接觸美光所服務的高端客戶領域。IHS公司指出，第三季度，爾必達的DRAM平均銷售價格是每0.70美元/GB，而美光的平均銷售價格是1.34美元。IHS公司認為，這種差異源于二者服務于不同的客戶群。 IHS公司稱，合并也可以使美光接觸爾必達的移動DRAM買家。爾必達第三季度移動DRAM出貨量份額為18.4%，而美光只有5.3%。目前移動DRAM約占總體DRAM市場的15%。 IHS公司認為，對于雙方的客戶來說，二者合并有利有弊。合并將導致市場中少一個供應商，可能使DRAM價格保持堅挺。但二者合并也可以平衡三星的龐大規(guī)模與影響力。 Howard表示，總的來看，合并會帶來一個更加穩(wěn)定的市場，這方面的好處可能蓋過少一個供應商帶來的弊端。 編譯：Luffy Liu 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 參考英文原文：Micron-Elpida merger would redraw DRAM market, by Dylan McGrath

相關閱讀：
• 美光CEO意外身亡，或影響DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)整合
• 閃存行業(yè)也掀起版權保護風潮
• 臺灣工研院：全球DRAM產(chǎn)品市場現(xiàn)況與預測pXbesmc

{pagination} Micron-Elpida merger would redraw DRAM market Dylan McGrath A potential merger between Micron Technology Inc. and Japan's Elpida Memory Inc. would dramatically redraw the DRAM landscape, creating a new No. 2 player that could challenge South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s leadership in the space, according to market research firm IHS iSuppli. Speculation has been swirling in recent weeks that Micron is in negotiations to invest in or acquire Elpida, which has been plagued by five consecutive quarterly losses and is bogged down with debt. Neither company has publicly acknowledged any such discussions. According to IHS, a merged Micron and Elpida would have capacity for 374,000 DRAM wafer starts per month. The combined company would have a 28 percent share of worldwide DRAM manufacturing capacity, placing it just behind Samsung, which has capacity for 433,000 wafer starts per month, or 33 percent of global DRAM capacity. On their own, Elpida and Micron typically rank third and fourth in DRAM capacity, respectively, IHS said. The reconfigured DRAM terrain also would mean that South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc. would fall to third place with 23 percent share of DRAM capacity, or about 300,000 DRAM starts per month, IHS said. Mike Howard, senior principal analyst for DRAM and memory at IHS, said that a combined Micron-Elpida would provide Samsung with its most powerful rival yet in DRAM. "Samsung is usually 10 percentage points ahead of its next competitor, but the merger would trim its formidable market share lead by half, to 5 percentage points," Howard said. Howard said any proposed merger or other tie-up arrangement between Micron and Elpida would face several challenges, not the least of which is Elpida's debt load. At the end of the third quarter last year, Elpida owed $4 billion in outstanding obligations, he said. While the DRAM industry is familiar with large amounts of debt because fabs can be extremely expensive to build and often require debt to finance, Micron is decidedly debt averse, he added. The strong Japanese yen and Micron's ongoing partnership with Taiwan's Nanya Technology Corp. could also be obstacles to a possible Micron-Elpida deal, Howard said. The death of former Micron Chairman and CEO Steve Appleton Feb. 3 could also complicate matters, since Appleton was a known advocate for consolidation and was likely a driver behind any possible deal, IHS said. But a merger between the two companies would also offer several benefits in addition to combined manufacturing capacity, IHS said. For Elpida, a deal would provide access to the premium customer segments that Micron serves. IHS noted that in the third quarter of 2011 Elpida's average selling price for DRAM was 70 cents per gigabyte, compared with $1.34 per gigabyte for Micron, a differential that IHS attributed to the firms serving different customer groups. A deal would also give Micron greater access to Elpida's mobile DRAM buyers, IHS said. Elpida shipped 18.4 percent of mobile bits in the third quarter, compared to only 5.3 percent for Micron, the firm said, adding that mobile DRAM now accounts for about 15 percent of the total DRAM market. For customers of both Micron and Elpida, a merger between the firms could be a double-edged sword, IHS said. A merger would mean one less DRAM supplier on the market, which could enable DRAM prices to firm, IHS said. But a merger could also provide ballast against the overwhelming size and influence of Samsung, IHS said. Overall, the benefits of a more stable market resulting from the merger probably would outweigh the drawbacks of having one less supplier, Howard said.