美國華爾街分析師預(yù)測，全球半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)營收繼2011年成長1~2%之后，2012年成長率將在0~4%之間。
“我們?nèi)跃S持對半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)的樂觀看法，認為景氣將在 2012年第一季觸底，并在下半年隨著庫存去化而全面復(fù)蘇；下半年產(chǎn)業(yè)成長率表現(xiàn)可望超越終端市場?！盉arclays Capital分析師CJ Muse表示，該機構(gòu)估計2012年半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)成長率將表現(xiàn)持平、最多至4%，與低于原先預(yù)期的全球GDP成長率一致。
Barclays Capital稍早之前預(yù)期，2012年全球芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)成長率為2~5%；Muse表示，該機構(gòu)下修預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)是反映目前產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整庫存動作持續(xù)到2012年第一季的狀況。此外該機構(gòu)預(yù)測 2012年全球 GDP成長率為3.3%。
Muse對 2012年芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)成長率的預(yù)測，與大多數(shù)其它機構(gòu)分析師的看法也相去不遠。在 2011年底，Gartner預(yù)測全球半導體產(chǎn)業(yè) 2011年成長率約1%， 2012年成長率則為2.2%；在 2011年11月，IHS iSuppli分析師預(yù)測，2011年半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)銷售額成長率為3.2%。
此外Muse也表示，Barclays Capital分析師仍維持對全球前段制程晶圓設(shè)備(front end wafer equipment)產(chǎn)業(yè)2012年將衰退5%的預(yù)測。
編譯：Judith Cheng
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參考原文： Analyst sees another flattish year for ICs in 2012，by Dylan McGrath
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Analyst sees another flattish year for ICs in 2012
Dylan McGrath
SAN FRANCISCO—Semiconductor revenue is forecast to grow by zero to 4 percent in 2012, after likely growing about 1 to 2 percent in 2011, according to a Wall Street analyst.
"We maintain our positive stance on semis, with the vision that the recovery will be more of a 2H12 story led by a trough in 1Q12, with depleted inventories thereafter setting up for semi growth in 2H12 that should outpace end markets," said CJ Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, in a report circulated Tuesday (Jan. 3).
Muse said his firm's estimate of flat to 4 percent sequential growth for the semiconductor industry in 2012 is in line with to slightly lower than expected worldwide GDP growth.
Barclays' forecast for chip growth is slightly lower than the firm's previous forecast for 2012, which called for growth of 2 to 5 percent for the year. Muse said. According to Muse, the downward revision was made to reflect the ongoing inventory adjustment lasting into the first quarter of 2012 and estimated worldwide GDP growth of 3.3 percent expected for the year.
Muse's forecast for chip industry growth in 2012 is consistent with what large market research firms have said in recent weeks. Late last year, Gartner Inc. forecast that semiconductor revenue would grow 2.2 percent in 2012 after growing about 1 percent in 2011. In November, IHS iSuppli said it expects semiconductor sales to grow 3.2 percent in 2011.
Muse said Barclays' analysts continue to expect that sales of front end wafer equipment will decline 5 percent in 2012.
責編：Quentin
