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連續(xù)4年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,電子業(yè)者“美國(guó)夢(mèng)”破滅

美 國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)歷連續(xù)四年的不景氣,失業(yè)率居高不下。這個(gè)國(guó)家現(xiàn)在面臨著巨大的預(yù)算赤字,國(guó)債也達(dá)到驚人的新高,但我們?nèi)圆粩嗦?tīng)到政府準(zhǔn)備編列預(yù)算的訊息。更 糟的是,官員們不但沒(méi)有齊心協(xié)力解決這些問(wèn)題,反而各自選邊站,忙著從事政治活動(dòng)和為下次的選舉做準(zhǔn)備。

愈來(lái)愈多人嘆息著‘美國(guó)夢(mèng)’的美好愿景不再。事實(shí)上,在電子行業(yè)的社群中,這種情況已經(jīng)存在許多年了。幾星期前,雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)(Yahoo Finance)公布了一項(xiàng)針對(duì)1,500位18~64歲的美國(guó)民眾所做的調(diào)查,揭露了一些令人不安的結(jié)果。調(diào)查顯示,大約有53%的受訪民眾仍將美國(guó)視為充滿希望的國(guó)度;但也有41%的人表示他們感到美國(guó)夢(mèng)遙不可及。 ‘美國(guó)夢(mèng)’這個(gè)名詞代表著只要認(rèn)真工作和擁有創(chuàng)新的思想,任何人都能夠在美國(guó)得到很好的發(fā)展,而這也是構(gòu)成這個(gè)國(guó)家的重要因素。但如今,這個(gè)概念似乎受到了來(lái)自許多方面的挑戰(zhàn)。 一項(xiàng)由紐約人壽保險(xiǎn)公司(New York Life Insurance Co.,)在今年五月所做的調(diào)查,也反映了類(lèi)似的悲觀看法。紐約人壽針對(duì)1,001位美國(guó)成人民眾進(jìn)行調(diào)查,發(fā)現(xiàn)僅有41%身為父母的受訪者表示,他們相信他們的孩子將擁有比父母更好的生活。 我有預(yù)感,這些結(jié)果有可能會(huì)被目前的一些社會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng)用來(lái)左證他們的看法。雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的調(diào)查也發(fā)現(xiàn),63%的受訪者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正在惡化(其中55歲以上占72%)。

《國(guó)際電子商情》
“占領(lǐng)華爾街”示 威者聚集在大本營(yíng)紐約祖可蒂公園(Zuccotti Park)。
資料來(lái)源:David Shankbone, Wikimedia Commons1cJesmc

美 國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)歷連續(xù)四年的不景氣,失業(yè)率居高不下。這個(gè)國(guó)家現(xiàn)在面臨著巨大的預(yù)算赤字,國(guó)債也達(dá)到驚人的新高,但我們?nèi)圆粩嗦?tīng)到政府準(zhǔn)備編列預(yù)算的訊息。更 糟的是,官員們不但沒(méi)有齊心協(xié)力解決這些問(wèn)題,反而各自選邊站,忙著從事政治活動(dòng)和為下次的選舉做準(zhǔn)備。雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),僅有四分之一的民眾相信奧巴馬總統(tǒng)和國(guó)會(huì)有能力解決金融危機(jī)。 夢(mèng)想不全然美麗,不是嗎?事實(shí)上,多年來(lái)我們不斷聽(tīng)有美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)已經(jīng)糟糕到甚至比大蕭條還差的地步。在這樣的背景下,雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的調(diào)查結(jié)果并沒(méi)有完全反應(yīng)民眾目前對(duì)‘美國(guó)夢(mèng)’的悲觀情緒,這才叫奇跡。 然 而,自1860年以來(lái),基本上每隔十年左右,美國(guó)就遭受到不同程度的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。雖然自2008年開(kāi)始的大衰退(Great Recession)被公認(rèn)為比其它的衰退都更嚴(yán)重(因而命名為Great Recession),但我覺(jué)得,雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)若在過(guò)去美國(guó)每一次面臨衰退時(shí)進(jìn)行調(diào)查,大概都會(huì)得到類(lèi)似的悲觀水準(zhǔn)。若時(shí)光倒流回失業(yè)率約在10%左右的 1982年,由雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)進(jìn)行調(diào)查,我猜結(jié)果也可能和今天相去不遠(yuǎn)。 把時(shí)間拉回到2000年后期網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫前,當(dāng)時(shí)的柯林頓總統(tǒng)在向國(guó)會(huì)和美國(guó)人民報(bào)告的國(guó)情咨文中提到美國(guó)的強(qiáng)大將會(huì)持續(xù),我敢說(shuō)你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)時(shí)許多人對(duì)美國(guó)夢(mèng)都抱著樂(lè)觀的看法。 本文下一頁(yè):占領(lǐng)運(yùn)動(dòng)

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{pagination} 然 而,盡管如此,雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的調(diào)查結(jié)果事實(shí)上是由更多其它復(fù)雜因素共同構(gòu)成,這當(dāng)中也包含了一些社會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng)。過(guò)去幾星期以來(lái),幾乎每一個(gè)主要的美國(guó)城市,都被不 滿的美國(guó)民眾‘占領(lǐng)’,這些走上街頭的民眾認(rèn)為,過(guò)去30年來(lái)他們的工資停滯不前,但約占美國(guó)人1%的金字塔頂端族群平均收入?yún)s成長(zhǎng)了275%。目前,這 些占領(lǐng)行動(dòng)(已延燒到美國(guó)以外的幾個(gè)國(guó)家)都仍在進(jìn)行中。 我們很難明確去描述占領(lǐng)運(yùn)動(dòng)的示 威者們的真正訴求。但顯然,他們覺(jué)得自己受到了不公平的對(duì)待。就像美國(guó)知名歌手Stephen Stills的名言:“這里是發(fā)生了一些事。但還不清楚究竟是怎幺一回事。” 若從過(guò)去幾年來(lái)美國(guó)版《電子工程專(zhuān)輯》的論壇響應(yīng)來(lái)看,你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為‘美國(guó)夢(mèng)’對(duì)工程領(lǐng)域來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)早已不存在的說(shuō)法。美國(guó)的工程師們經(jīng)常哀嘆工作機(jī)會(huì)外流,他們感到被犧牲,抱怨受到年齡歧視,而且明確表態(tài)他們將奉勸子女別再當(dāng)工程師。 不 過(guò),僅以電子工程領(lǐng)域的論壇為基礎(chǔ),可能無(wú)法精確掌握工程社群的脈動(dòng)。這些意見(jiàn)反饋不一定能反映所有美國(guó)電子工程師的現(xiàn)況。應(yīng)該有工程師仍過(guò)著幸福和快樂(lè) 的日子,他們也對(duì)美國(guó)未來(lái)的工程前景感到樂(lè)觀。這些人一定都潛水在美國(guó)版電子工程專(zhuān)輯論壇中,只不過(guò)屬于‘沉默的大多數(shù)’而已。 然而,在這個(gè)國(guó)家中,工程師的未來(lái)看起來(lái)還是要比20年前燦爛許多。多年來(lái),創(chuàng)新精神開(kāi)創(chuàng)了許多嶄新的科技領(lǐng)域,為這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)提供了許多振奮人心的商機(jī)。不過(guò),現(xiàn)在這些機(jī)會(huì)顯然都出現(xiàn)在低成本和生活水準(zhǔn)較低的地方,因?yàn)檫@些地方對(duì)薪水的要求也比較低。 編譯: Joy Teng 本文授權(quán)編譯自EE Times,版權(quán)所有,謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文: Engineering and the American Dream,by Dylan McGrath

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{pagination} Engineering and the American Dream Dylan McGrath A couple of weeks ago, Yahoo Finance circulated some disturbing results from a survey it conducted of 1,500 Americans between the ages of 18 and 64. While a majority of those surveyed—53 percent—said they still viewed America as the land of opportunity, a full 41 percent said they felt the American Dream was out of reach. The American Dream—that idea that through hard work and innovation anyone can prosper in the U.S.—is a critical component of our national fabric. But the concept appears to be under threat on multiple fronts. Results of a similar survey conducted by New York Life Insurance Co., released in May, reflect similar pessimism. That survey of 1,001 U.S. adults found that only 41 percent of responding parents believe their children will have a higher standard of living than their parents. I have a hunch that these results are partially skewed by the undercurrent of negativity running through current events. Indeed, the Yahoo Finance survey found that 63 percent of respondents believe the economy is getting worse (including 72 percent of respondents over 55). Occupy Wall Street protestors march in New York's Zuccotti Park. Source: David Shankbone, Wikimedia Commons. The U.S. economy has been sluggish at best for going on four years now, and unemployment remains stubbornly high. As a nation we have been running huge budget deficits, adding to a an already staggering national debt, and we keep hearing that there is going to be a reckoning. To make matters worse, rather than working together to address the issues, our national elected officials have completely failed to provide leadership, choosing instead to use their positions to advance their political ideologies and prepare for the next election. The Yahoo Finance survey found that only about one-quarter of the public is confident that President Obama and Congress can fix the financial crisis. Not exactly a rosy picture, is it? Indeed, we have been hearing for years that the economic situation in the U.S. is as bad or worse than it has been since the Great Depression. Against this backdrop, it's a wonder that the Yahoo Finance survey did not reflect even greater pessimism about the state of the American Dream. But the U.S. has basically been hit by recessions of varying degrees near the beginning of every decade since the 1860s. While the Great Recession that began in 2008 was admittedly more severe than most (hence the name), I have a hunch that if the Yahoo Finance survey were conducted during any of these periods it would find similar levels of pessimism. Were the Yahoo Finance surveyors to go back in time and conduct the survey in, for example, early 1982, with unemployment in the neighborhood of 10 percent, my guess is it would find just as much despair about the state of the American Dream as exists today. Flash forward to late to 2000, just before the dot com bubble deflated in earnest, when President Clinton told Congress and the American people that the state of the union was "the strongest it has ever been," and I'd venture to say you'd find a lot more people feeling pretty upbeat about the American Dream. Occupy this Still, there are other factors that put more context around the Yahoo Finance survey results. Over the past several weeks, virtually every sizeable American city has been "occupied" by throngs of disgruntled citizens who identify themselves as among the vast majority of Americans who have seen their wages stagnate over the past 30 years while the incomes of America's top 1 percent of earners have grown by an average of 275 percent. Many of these occupations—which are not limited only to the U.S.—remain ongoing. What exactly the occupy movement protesters want is difficult to pin down. But it's clear that they feel they've gotten a raw deal. In the immortal words of Stephen Stills, "There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear." Judging from the comments in the EE Times Forum over the past several years, you'd think that the American Dream is a long dead concept as it applies to engineering. U.S. engineers who weigh in on various subjects frequently bemoan the movement of engineering jobs overseas, complain of feeling expendable and discriminated against based on age, and state in no uncertain terms that they do or will steer their children away from pursuing a career in engineering. But taking the pulse of the engineering community based on the memorable Forum comments doesn't provide a complete picture. The comments of a vocal few don't necessarily represent the feelings of all EEs in the U.S. There are undoubtedly many engineers who are quite happy and prosperous and feel excited about the future prospects for engineering in America. It's possible that this position accounts for the "silent majority" of EEs in the United States. Still, it's hard to believe that the future for engineers in this country seems brighter than it did, say, 20 years ago. Since that time, innovation has created whole new fields of technology and many exciting possibilities and opportunities. But, clearly, many of those opportunities are now found in places with lower costs and standards of living, and thus lower salary requirements.
責(zé)編:Quentin
本文為國(guó)際電子商情原創(chuàng)文章,未經(jīng)授權(quán)禁止轉(zhuǎn)載。請(qǐng)尊重知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán),違者本司保留追究責(zé)任的權(quán)利。
Dylan McGrath
EE Times美國(guó)版執(zhí)行編輯。Dylan McGrath是EE Times的執(zhí)行編輯。 Dylan在電子和半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)擁有20多年的報(bào)道經(jīng)驗(yàn),專(zhuān)注于消費(fèi)電子、晶圓代工、EDA、可編程邏輯、存儲(chǔ)器和其他專(zhuān)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。
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