來自挪威的市場研究機構 Carnegie Group 分析師Bruce Diesen指出，日本芯片業(yè)者從 311大地震與海嘯災難復原的速度比預期快了許多，曝露了部分零組件有雙重下訂(double-ordering)的狀況；而也因為通路業(yè)者試圖清理庫存，使得芯片訂單出現(xiàn)衰退。 Diesen表示，世界半導體貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計組織(WSTS)即將發(fā)表的 8月全球芯片銷售額三個月平均值是244億美元，較7月份的249億美元稍有衰退；8月份全球芯片銷售額的三個月平均值出現(xiàn)月衰退是一個例外，過去十年來，只有2001年出現(xiàn)過相同的情況。 “我們認為這是因為全球經(jīng)濟景氣不明朗，再加上日本地震發(fā)生后的第一個月廠商累積額外的庫存，造成通路業(yè)者開始清囤貨?！盌iesen表示，日本芯片出口量在7月份大幅成長，但其超乎預期的復原速度也曝露了有不少客戶在地震后重復下訂的情況：“諷刺的是，日本芯片出口量在7月的反彈回升，可能會讓很多客戶取消8月份的訂單?！? Diesen表示，PC市場所受到的影響，應該是來自Acer與HP的高庫存水位；至于低階手機與汽車用半導體市場的表現(xiàn)則相對強勁。他仍將2011年全球芯片市場營收成長率預測值維持在4%，但也表示如果8月份芯片市場表現(xiàn)如他所言，9月又沒有改善，恐怕得下修預測。 編譯：Judith Cheng 本文授權編譯自EETIMES，版權所有，謝絕轉載！ 參考原文： Analyst: Destocking hit August chip sales，by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} Analyst: Destocking hit August chip sales Peter Clarke LONDON – Japan's chip exports getting back on track faster than expected after the Great Quake and Tsunami of March 2011 has exposed double-ordering of components and caused a slump in chip orders as distributors try to de-stock, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway). The three-month average of global chip sales for August is going to be reported as $24.4 billion by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, down on the $24.9 billion reported for July, Diesen said. This would be an exceptional sequential fall as the three-month moving average has climbed in August compared with July in all but one (2001) of the last ten years. "We think there was destocking at distributors due to uncertainty about the world economy, plus unwinding of extra inventory bought in the first months after the Japanese earthquake," said Diesen in a note to clients. He said that Japanese chip exports rose sharply in July, but the quicker than expected recovery had revealed that many customers double ordered in the months after the earthquake. "Ironically, the rebound in Japan’s exports in July probably prompted many customers to cancel orders in August," Diesen said. The PC market is probably affected due to high inventories at Acer and HP, Diesen said. The market for semiconductors for low-end handsets and automotive were likely among the more robust sectors. Diesen is sticking with his annual global chip market dollar growth forecast for 2011 of 4 percent, but said that if August comes in as expected and September does not improve a cut will be necessary.