今年7月，我與一位老朋友、資深企業(yè)家 Valdis Dunis 在香港的一個時髦高檔酒店喝咖啡時，他說：“太陽能光電板生意全都跑到中國去了?！币驗楫敃r我正要前往臺北采訪關于在ARM核心上執(zhí)行 Windows 8 以及無晶圓廠IP供貨商的題材，所以一直把他的看法放在腦海中的某個角落，沒怎么在意。 但在不久前，美國硅谷潔凈科技招牌大廠 Solyndra 宣告破產，Valdis的話猛然浮上我心頭。就像往常一樣，Valdis總是能洞察先機；他創(chuàng)辦了Solar Cities Asia 這家公司，期望能在這個陽光普照的區(qū)域市場，成為建筑屋頂太陽能設備的領導廠商。 Valdis大多數(shù)的時間都是在處理復雜的財務問題，他吹噓說已經找到了一種方法，讓在商業(yè)大樓上安裝屋頂太陽能設備的費用非常吸引人；基本上就是以省下的電費能抵銷硬件安裝成本的創(chuàng)意方式。 于是我對于屋頂太陽能設備這門生意的印象，都是關于如何計算那些費用數(shù)字，包括可取得的政府補助金等；但實際上Valdis骨子里還是個工程師，所以他還是對相關技術的發(fā)展保持敏銳的觀察。 在過去的一年來，Valdis看著來自中國的主流晶硅面板產量大增，價格則下滑；他對臺積電(TSMC)的銅銦鎵硒(CIGS)薄膜太陽能電池計畫頗感好奇，慫恿我去研究一下這個題材，并質疑他們是否能搞定其背后復雜的技術。 當時我沒聯(lián)想到，遠在美國加州的Solyndra 廠房就是采用類似的技術，而且也處于類似的風險中；沒過多久，市場現(xiàn)實已經與Valdis的結論相符。 簡而言之，中國官方已經砸下數(shù)十億美元扶植當?shù)乜焖侔l(fā)展主流晶硅技術，基本上就是用錢買太陽能市占率；他們師法的是上個世代韓商Samsung與LG在DRAM與LCD領域所采取的策略。 這些日子以來，美國與日本的大型內存與顯示器供貨商正進行整合，以與韓國大廠競爭；而很類似地，美國太陽能市場看來正面臨動蕩，同時中國太陽能霸業(yè)正要崛起，就如同Valdis幾個月前所預見的。 包括CIGS薄膜等其它太陽能技術仍頗具發(fā)展?jié)摿?，目前太陽能電池效率低得可憐，新技術可望帶來性能上的突破，也許某天再度大幅超越中國；但問題是，那樣的技術尚不存在。 專家們說，Solyndra所帶來的教訓是，太陽光電替代能源技術雖然值得私人或官方資金投入實驗室階段研發(fā)，以期在下一個世代有所突破，但晶硅對主流制造產業(yè)來說還是一場豪賭。其價格成本的甜蜜點(sweet spot)，以及廠商之間的競爭，在此刻似乎都沒有結論。 美國投資人總是喜歡賭一個可能會成為未來大事件的、大躍進型的技術，但在太陽能領域，中國顯然采取了較聰明的策略，也就是在現(xiàn)階段大力生產市場目前所需的技術。我正在二度造訪臺灣的旅途中，并思考著也許這次該好好研究一下臺積電的太陽能計畫；他們將為這個吹著整并風的太陽能產業(yè)埋下什么伏筆？ 編譯：Judith Cheng 本文授權編譯自EE Times，版權所有，謝絕轉載 參考英文原文： An entrepreneur's view of solar，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} An entrepreneur's view of solar Rick Merritt SAN JOSE, Calif. – "The solar panel business is all going to China," said Valdis Dunis, a long time entrepreneur and friend. It was July and we were having coffee in one of Hong Kong's snazzy upscale hotels. I was on my way to Taipei to write about Windows 8 on ARM and fabless IP companies, so I was just storing away his comments to a place somewhere in the far back of my mental filing cabinet. Yesterday when Silicon Valley's clean tech icon Solyndra publically crashed and burned, Valdis' comments flooded back to the forefront of my mind. As usual, Valdis' opinions were well informed. He had been working for some time as the founder of Solar Cities Asia, assembling the business plan for a company that aimed to be a leader in rooftop solar installations in this sun-drenched region. Much of Valdis' time recently had been devoted to pouring over complex financing issues. He was jazzed he had found a way to make the numbers for installing rooftop solar on commercial buildings very compelling, essentially using creative ways a lowered utility bill could be factored into the equation of amortizing the hardware. I got the impression the solar rooftop business was all about how you ran the numbers, including what government incentives were available. But Valdis is an engineer at heart, so he kept a keen eye on the technology as well. He had watched China sources of mainstream crystalline solar panels ramp up in volume and down in price over the last year or so. He was very curious about TSMC's plans for solar panels based on CIGS technology. He encouraged me to research how the initiative was going and expressed skepticism even they could master the complex technology behind it. I didn't make the connection those giant Solyndra fabs along I-880 back in Fremont, Calif., were using similar technology and were in a similarly dicey position. But it didn't take long for market realities to catch up to what Valdis had already concluded. Word is China has given away tens of billions of dollars to help its local manufacturers step on the gas in mainstream crystalline technology, essentially buying market share in solar. They were following the pattern set by Samsung and LG in DRAMs and LCDs a generation ago. These days the big U.S. and Japan memory and display makers are consolidating to catch up with Korea's giants. Similarly a solar shakeout seems to be here in the wake of the rising China juggernaut Valdis saw coming months ago. CIGS, thin-films and other solar technologies still have plenty of promise. Efficiencies of solar cells are abysmally low. A new approach could offer a performance breakthrough to leapfrog China in the market--someday. But that technology is not here today. The lesson of Solyndra, experts say, is solar alternatives deserve private and public funding at the level of lab research to pave the way for next-generation breakthroughs, but crystalline is the bet to make in mainstream manufacturing. It is edging toward the dollar/Watt sweet spot and its competitors don't seem to be close at the moment. U.S. investors love to bet on leapfrog technologies that will become the next big thing. But in solar China appears to have a smarter approach at this stage of just out-producing everyone in what the market wants today. I am headed back to Taipei shortly and thinking maybe this time I really ought to check into TSMC's solar plans. They may be digging in Hsinchu the next big hole in a consolidating solar industry.