市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu) IC Insights 基于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣衰弱，調(diào)降了對(duì) 2011年半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)營收預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。該機(jī)構(gòu)將原先對(duì)全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)2011年?duì)I收成長率的10%預(yù)測(cè)值，下修為5%；此外將2011年IC出貨成長率由原先預(yù)測(cè)的10%，下修為4%。
在新發(fā)布的年中McClean 報(bào)告中，IC Insights 列舉了一連串引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣衰退的事件，包括311日本大地震、中東政局動(dòng)蕩、美國的天災(zāi)以及歐、美政府債務(wù)危機(jī)等等；這些事件讓2011上半年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)成長率與去年同期相較明顯趨緩，也拖累了電子與半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)的成長。
“雖然這些負(fù)面事件本身帶來的沖擊并不是很嚴(yán)重，但綜合起來仍讓上半年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨緩；”IC Insights總裁Bill McClean表示。根據(jù)IC Insights的觀察，全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)毛額(GDP)成長率在2010年達(dá)到4.6%之后，已經(jīng)開始嚴(yán)重下滑；第二季全球GDP成長率估計(jì)為3.1%，但金額比2010年同期減少了33%，與代表經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的2.5%成長率之間差距不到1%。
但I(xiàn)C Insights仍表示，全球GDP成長率表現(xiàn)在今年下半年應(yīng)該會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)，主要是因?yàn)槿毡菊鸷蟮耐顿Y需求，以及美國經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)。
年中McClean報(bào)告也更新了2011上半年全球前二十大半導(dǎo)體供貨商排行榜(以營收計(jì))，其中排名第一的英特爾(Intel)拉開了與第二大廠商三星電子(Samsung Electronics)之間的差距，其上半年業(yè)績比三星高出43%。整體看來，全球前二十大半導(dǎo)體供貨商上半年銷售業(yè)績比去年同期成長8%，比全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)上半年成長率4%高出4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
本文下一頁：2011上半年全球TOP20半導(dǎo)體供貨商排行榜
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另外值得一提的是，繪圖芯片供貨商N(yùn)vidia擠下日本同業(yè)Panasonic，重回全球前二十大半導(dǎo)體供貨商之列，雖然Nvidia的上半年銷售業(yè)績只比去年同期成長1%。
IC Insights的2011上半年全球前二十大半導(dǎo)體供貨商排行榜04Eesmc
編譯：Judith Cheng
參考原文： IC Insights lowers chip growth forecast，by Dylan McGrath
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• 無人能威脅三星在DRAM供應(yīng)市場(chǎng)的龍頭地位
• 英特爾為三家中國公司投資2200萬美元04Eesmc
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IC Insights lowers chip growth forecast
Dylan McGrath
Market research firm IC Insights Inc. lowered its forecast for semiconductor industry growth in 2011, citing a weak global economy.
IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.) said it now projects that global semiconductor revenue will increase 5 percent this year, down from an earlier forecast calling for 10 percent growth. The firm also lowered its projection for 2011 integrated circuit (IC) growth to 4 percent from 10 percent.
In a mid-year update to the firm's McClean Report, IC Insights maintains that a series of economic setbacks—including the March 11 earthquake in Japan, the Arab Spring political uprising in the Middle East, a surge in natural disasters in the U.S. and government debt concerns in the U.S. and Europe—caused quarterly worldwide economic growth to slow significantly in the first half of 2011 as compared to 2010 and in turn served to slow worldwide electronics and semiconductor industry market growth.
"While any of these negative events by themselves may not have had a serious impact, combined, they served to noticeably slow the worldwide economy in the first half of this year," said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, in a research bulletin.
Worldwide GDP figures have been on fairly steep decline since reaching 4.6 percent in 2010, IC Insights said. The second quarter GDP estimate of 3.1 percent is 33 percent lower than it was in the second quarter of 2010 and less than 1 percent over the 2.5 percent global recession mark, IC Insights said.
IC Insights said it expects worldwide GDP growth to be better in the second half of the year than it was in the second half due to post-earthquake investment by Japan and a stronger economy in the U.S.
Also in the mid-year update to the McClean report, IC Insights updated its list of the top 20 semiconductor supplier by revenue in the first half of 2011. Intel Corp. extended its lead over No. 2 chip supplier Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., registering 43 percent better sales than Samsung in the first half of the year, IC Insights said.
In total, the top 20 semiconductor suppliers showed an 8 percent increase in first half sales compared to the first half of 2010, IC Insights said. This growth rate was 4 points better than total worldwide semiconductor industry growth of 4 percent in the first half of the year compared to 2010, IC Insights said.
Nvidia Corp. returned to the top 20—supplanting Panasonic Corp.—despite a first half sales increase of only 1 percent compared to 2010, IC Insights said.
責(zé)編：Quentin
