全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正緩慢步入動(dòng)蕩和進(jìn)一步的不確定之中，有太多值得關(guān)注的事件不斷上演，導(dǎo)致難以做出合理的預(yù)測(cè)。歐洲人對(duì)于緊縮政策感到憤怒；中國(guó)正在盡全力對(duì)抗通膨問(wèn)題；而日本也有它自己的困擾──同時(shí)受地震和長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng)不良的影響；美國(guó)尚無(wú)能力從其金融和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)問(wèn)題中解脫；而其它發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的成長(zhǎng)也呈現(xiàn)出不確定性及不均衡的情況。 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景看來(lái)正籠罩著一片陰霾，甚至是在南北美洲、歐洲或亞洲等關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)地位的專家都不知道未來(lái)幾年的情勢(shì)將如何演變。如果你仍然執(zhí)意這樣的觀點(diǎn)──電子組件和設(shè)備的需求與供給不至于因產(chǎn)業(yè)以外的因素而受挫──因而還不密切關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞，那么請(qǐng)你聽(tīng)聽(tīng)其它的看法。 事實(shí)是，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)情勢(shì)很少真正平靜。德國(guó)看來(lái)還沒(méi)有大問(wèn)題，但它必須幫助希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭和西班牙擺脫困境。而在中東，目前仍有幾場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)正在醞釀中，而內(nèi)亂則不斷對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)貛?lái)重大影響，并破壞和阻礙當(dāng)?shù)氐馁Q(mào)易及商業(yè)活動(dòng)。 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不振已經(jīng)為股市和商品價(jià)格帶來(lái)顯著影響。原油價(jià)格不斷下跌，顯示投資者認(rèn)為未來(lái)需求減弱。上周，在國(guó)際能源總署(IEA)和美國(guó)政府決定釋出緊急儲(chǔ)油后，一份報(bào)告指出石油價(jià)格已下跌至“每桶90美元以下，跌幅超過(guò) 5%”。國(guó)際能源總署表示十分擔(dān)心“美國(guó)和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟情況”。 在此期間，即使是美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)也擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在未完全恢復(fù)的模式中。一份iMarketNews.com發(fā)布的報(bào)告指出，美國(guó)聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)主席Ben Bernanke在FOMC公布審議決議及決定0~0.25%聯(lián)邦資金利率后的一場(chǎng)電話會(huì)議上進(jìn)行了評(píng)論，并據(jù)此宣告目前正處于“為經(jīng)濟(jì)所困”(confounded by the economy)的現(xiàn)況。 由FOMC在四月的會(huì)議中所得到信息顯示，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇較FOMC所預(yù)期的步伐較慢些，但它仍持續(xù)緩步進(jìn)展中。同時(shí)，最近的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)指針也低于預(yù)期。 該委員會(huì)持續(xù)預(yù)估各種可能的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況──包括資源利用率低、中期通貨膨脹前景疲弱等等，這些都可能讓聯(lián)邦基金更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間持續(xù)在的低效率的情況。 美國(guó)聯(lián)準(zhǔn)會(huì)也調(diào)降對(duì)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的成長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，從今年年初預(yù)期的3.4到3.9%成長(zhǎng)率，調(diào)降至2.7和2.9%之間。難怪奧巴馬總統(tǒng)打算將美國(guó)在阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的各種資源調(diào)回美國(guó)本土來(lái)建設(shè)家園。 這些對(duì)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)有什幺意義？首先，它會(huì)讓一些業(yè)界高層們相信，他們握住現(xiàn)金而非雇用新人、增加研發(fā)投資和產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)的做法是正確的。但僅僅是因?yàn)槲磥?lái)的不確定性而選擇將現(xiàn)金握在手中，在這個(gè)快速變遷的產(chǎn)業(yè)中并不是一個(gè)能帶領(lǐng)企業(yè)走向成功的策略。經(jīng)濟(jì)終究會(huì)復(fù)蘇，只有那些具有規(guī)劃未來(lái)的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)，且能仔細(xì)管理資源和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的企業(yè)會(huì)成為贏家。 其次，經(jīng)濟(jì)的冷卻期也可作為孕育未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)的準(zhǔn)備。已經(jīng)有一些領(lǐng)域?qū)Ω呖萍技靶录夹g(shù)發(fā)出了需求，特別是在能源、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、醫(yī)療和資源管理等方面。這對(duì)電子業(yè)而言是非常好的機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)榇蠹铱偸窃趯ふ蚁乱粋€(gè)‘殺手級(jí)’應(yīng)用。 現(xiàn)在，所有能滿足上述需要新技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的關(guān)鍵部件都已經(jīng)就緒，但還需要有人能良好地整合它們，針對(duì)這些部份，你并不需要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)測(cè)保障。無(wú)論如何，對(duì)所有人來(lái)說(shuō)，這些預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字還相當(dāng)遙遠(yuǎn)。 編譯： Susan Hong; Joy Teng 本文授權(quán)編譯自EBN Online，版權(quán)所有，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載 參考英文原文：Will High-Tech Lead as Economy Cools?，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Will High-Tech Lead as Economy Cools? Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief The outlook is cloudy for the global economy, and not even the most celebrated wizards in key economic positions in North and South America, Europe, or Asia know how things will play out over the next year. If you are not paying close attention to economic news because you are one of those who still subscribe to the idea that demand for -- and supply of -- electronics components and equipment won't be hit by factors extraneous to the industry, please get a second opinion. The global economy is sinking slowly into turmoil and further uncertainties, with too many flash points, which precludes reasonably acceptable forecasts. Europeans are seething with rage over austerity measures; China is fighting a losing battle against inflationary pressures; Japan is troubled, both by the impacts of the recent earthquake and decades of subpar growth; the United States hasn't been able to put its financial and real estate mess behind it; and growth is highly uncertain and uneven in developing economies. The bottom line is that there are very few calm economic spots worldwide. Germany, which might qualify, is unhappy it has to help bail out Greece, Ireland, and Spain and is looking to impose stringent conditions on the use of its funds. In the Middle East, several wars are brewing and civil unrest is reshaping the contours of the region, disrupting trade flow and hindering business activities. The effects of the global malaise are already evident on the equity markets and commodity prices. Crude oil prices have been declining, a sign that traders see weaker demand ahead. Oil prices fell "below $90 a barrel, or more than 5 percent," according to a report on Thursday following a decision by the International Energy Agency and the US government to dump emergency crude reserves on the market. The IEA said it was concerned about "sagging economies in the US and Europe." In the meantime, even the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is worried the global economy is not in full recovery mode. A report on iMarketNews.com noted that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sounded "confounded by the economy" based on comments he made at a conference call after the FOMC released the summary of its deliberations and its decision to leave interest rates on federal funds at 0 to 0.25 percent. Here is how the FOMC tried to justify that decision: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions -- including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Federal Reserve also pared back its growth forecast for the US, dropping this for the second time this year to between 2.7 and 2.9 percent; The prior forecast at the beginning of the year was for growth of 3.4 to 3.9 percent. Little wonder President Obama wants to redirect national resources from war in Afghanistan to nation-building at home. What does these mean for the electronics industry? First, it will make some industry executives believe they were right in piling up cash and sitting on it rather than spending on new hires, increased R&D, and product development. But merely holding cash because the future is unpredictable is not a winning strategy in a fast-changing industry. The economy will bounce back, and the rough edges will get smoothed away eventually, but only those enterprises that planned ahead, carefully managing resources and the risks in the market, will emerge as winners. Second, a cooling period can serve as the incubator for future growth. There are economic segments crying for high-tech to lead and champion the adoption and use of new technologies, especially in energy, connectivity, medical, and resource management. This is a great opportunity for an industry that is always searching for the next "killer" application. The parts are already in place, but someone has to put them all together, and for this you don't need a guaranteed forecast from economists. Anyway, those numbers aren't coming anytime soon, from anyone.