這次日本地震會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么總體影響？
市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司IC Insights Inc.總裁Bill McClean最近發(fā)表了一份報(bào)告，分析了日本局勢(shì)及其對(duì)全球GDP、電子系統(tǒng)銷售和全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)的影響。以下是其提出的五項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)：
1、GDP將下降
“2010年日本占全球GDP的7.5%。初步估計(jì)顯示，地震和海嘯將使2011年日本GDP下降1-3%。IC Insights公司認(rèn)為， 地震對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈的破壞仍可能導(dǎo)致全球GDP增長(zhǎng)率降至3.4%，并導(dǎo)致今年全球GDP少增加2600億美元，而我們當(dāng)初的預(yù)測(cè)是增長(zhǎng)3.9%。IC Insights公司目前預(yù)測(cè)全球GDP增長(zhǎng)3.6%。”
2、電子系統(tǒng)將受到打擊
“2010年電子系統(tǒng)銷售額為12370億美元，僅占全球GDP的2.2%。按照悲觀的預(yù)測(cè)，即2011年全球GDP增長(zhǎng)3.4%，考慮導(dǎo)致全球GDP減少2600億美元的影響，乘以2.2%，得出電子系統(tǒng)銷售額損失57億美元。IC Insights目前預(yù)測(cè)2011年電子系統(tǒng)銷售額是13480億美元，從中減掉57億美元，則今年銷售額將是13420億美元左右，比2010年增長(zhǎng)8.5%，低于我們目前預(yù)計(jì)的9.0%?！?
3、關(guān)于IC市場(chǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)未變
“根據(jù)‘悲觀’預(yù)測(cè)(即全球GDP增長(zhǎng)3.4%，電子系統(tǒng)銷售額損失57億美元)，從IC Insights公司當(dāng)前對(duì)全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)的預(yù)估(3468億美元)中減掉14億美元，全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)將是3454億美元，仍比2010年增長(zhǎng)10%?！?
4、供應(yīng)鏈問題
“IC Insights公司認(rèn)為，目前的(硅)晶圓庫存水平和封裝材料，將幫助避免出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重短缺。另外，材料工廠(即裸晶圓和塑性樹脂等)可以比IC工廠更快地恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。IC Insights公司預(yù)測(cè)，未來六個(gè)月，許多電子系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)商將試圖購(gòu)買額外的IC庫存，尤其是預(yù)計(jì)下半年是銷售旺季?！?
5、需求不會(huì)被消滅
“在最后的分析中，由于日本地震和海嘯的影響，許多與電子系統(tǒng)和半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)的領(lǐng)域的供應(yīng)肯定將受到抑制。但是，從全球角度來看，電子系統(tǒng)和半導(dǎo)體需求預(yù)計(jì)只會(huì)因日本災(zāi)害而略有削減。另外，2011年電子系統(tǒng)與半導(dǎo)體需求因地震導(dǎo)致的任何損失，預(yù)計(jì)將會(huì)推遲或者延后到2012年，而不會(huì)被消滅。”
相關(guān)閱讀：
• 日本地震將導(dǎo)致七種電子元件供應(yīng)緊張和價(jià)格上漲
• 進(jìn)入特別專題：日本311地震撼動(dòng)全球電子產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈zWqesmc
參考原文：Five predictions following Japan quake,by Mark LaPedus
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Five predictions following Japan quake
Mark LaPedus
What is the overall impact of the recent earthquake in Japan?
In a report, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc., provides his analysis of the situation in Japan and its effect on worldwide GDP, electronic system sales, and the worldwide semiconductor market. Here are five predications:
1. GDP to fall
''Japan represented 7.5 percent of worldwide GDP in 2010. Early estimates indicate that the earthquake and tsunami damage will cause Japan’s GDP to decline by 1-3 percent in 2011. IC Insights believes that the resulting supply chain disruptions from the earthquake could still cause worldwide GDP to drop to 3.4 percent, and still result in a $260 billion shortfall in worldwide GDP this year as compared to our original 3.9 percent forecast. IC Insights’ current worldwide GDP forecast (is) 3.6 percent.''
2. Electronic systems to take hit
''Electronic system sales were $1,237 billion in 2010, which represented only 2.2 percent of worldwide GDP. Taking the pessimistic situation of a 3.4 percent worldwide GDP growth rate in 2011, and the associated $260 billion negative impact on worldwide GDP, and multiplying it by 2.2 percent yields an electronic systems sales loss of $5.7 billion. Subtracting $5.7 billion from IC Insights’ current 2011 electronic system sales forecast of $1,348 billion would put electronic system sales at about $1,342 billion for this year, an 8.5 percent increase over 2010 compared to our current forecast of 9.0 percent.''
3. No change in IC forecast
''Using the ‘pessimistic’ scenario (i.e., 3.4 percent worldwide GDP and a loss of $5.7 billion in electronic system sales) and subtracting $1.4 billion from IC Insights’ current 2011 forecast of $346.8 billion for the worldwide semiconductor market, puts the worldwide semiconductor market at $345.4 billion, still a 10 percent increase over 2010.''
4. Supply chain questions
''IC Insights believes that current levels of inventory of (silicon) wafers and packaging materials will help to avert serious shortages. Also, materials facilities (e.g., raw wafers, plastic resin, etc.) can ftentimes be brought back on-line much quicker than IC fabs. IC Insights expects that over the next six months, many electronic system producers will attempt to acquire extra IC inventory, especially in anticipation of the seasonally strong second half of the year.''
5. Net impact?
''In the final analysis, there is no doubt that supply will be constrained in numerous areas relating to the electronic system and semiconductor industries due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. However, on a worldwide basis, demand for electronic systems and semiconductors is expected to be only slightly lessened due to the disaster in Japan. Moreover, any lessening of system or semiconductor demand in 2011 due to the earthquake is forecast to be delayed and pushed into 2012, but not destroyed.’’
