據(jù)華爾街分析師，繼在40納米節(jié)點(diǎn)上落后于Altera之后，可編程邏輯器件廠商賽靈思有望取得明顯成長(zhǎng)，可能在28納米節(jié)點(diǎn)再度從Altera手中奪回技術(shù)領(lǐng)先地位。 FBR Capital Markets的分析師Hans Mosesmann在上周二(3月15日)發(fā)布的報(bào)告中表示，賽靈思在周一召開(kāi)的分析師會(huì)議上，關(guān)于重奪FPGA領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)先地位發(fā)表了大膽聲明。 2010年賽靈思是可編程邏輯器件市場(chǎng)中的領(lǐng)頭羊，銷售額約為23億美元。Altera的2010年銷售額約為19.5億美元，在向40納米進(jìn)軍的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中打敗賽靈思，領(lǐng)先對(duì)手幾個(gè)月推出了相關(guān)產(chǎn)品。這兩家公司都表示，將在本季度推出各自的28納米器件樣品。 周二Mosesmann表示，他與FBR Capital Markets的其他分析師都對(duì)賽靈思在28納米節(jié)點(diǎn)采取統(tǒng)一架構(gòu)有深刻印象。賽靈思正在推出三類28納米器件，首次采取統(tǒng)一的可升級(jí)架構(gòu)，使客戶能夠比以前更容易把各產(chǎn)品系列轉(zhuǎn)向28納米。 Mosesmann指出，為了在28納米節(jié)點(diǎn)重新從Altera手中奪回技術(shù)領(lǐng)先地位，賽靈思必須克服各方面的挑戰(zhàn)，包括制造層面、利用其新的堆疊硅互連技術(shù)增強(qiáng)性能、在低端器件中集成模擬功能模塊和執(zhí)行層面。 “賽靈思試圖只用兩年的時(shí)間，就完成通常需要兩或三個(gè)產(chǎn)品周期(六到八年)才能完成的任務(wù)，” Mosesmann寫道，“在我們的書(shū)中，我們給賽靈思的“勇氣”一項(xiàng)打了10分。 摩根大通的分析師Christopher Danely同意Mosesmann的看法，也認(rèn)為賽靈思可能在28納米節(jié)點(diǎn)趕超Altera。 “我們相信，賽靈思在這個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)將與Altera同步甚至更早推出產(chǎn)品。賽靈思現(xiàn)在正在生產(chǎn)其第二款28納米器件樣品，領(lǐng)先于Altera。此前與Altera同時(shí)推出各自的第一款28納米產(chǎn)品樣品，” Danely在賽靈思分析師會(huì)議之后發(fā)表報(bào)告作如此表示。 Mosesmann表示，賽靈思的中檔28納米器件系列Kintex有望成為贏家，因?yàn)槠浼軜?gòu)就是為這檔產(chǎn)品優(yōu)化的。據(jù)賽靈思，中檔產(chǎn)品是該市場(chǎng)中增長(zhǎng)最快的領(lǐng)域。 Mosesmann認(rèn)為，在中高檔市場(chǎng)，賽靈思的堆疊硅互連既是創(chuàng)新也是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因其需要采用新的制造工藝。 Mosesmann維持對(duì)賽靈思股票“表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于大盤”的評(píng)級(jí)，以及40美元的目標(biāo)股價(jià)。Danely維持對(duì)賽靈思股票“加碼(overweight)”的評(píng)級(jí)，目標(biāo)股價(jià)也是40美元。賽靈思股價(jià)周二收于31.37美元。 Gleacher & Co.的分析師Ian Ing表示，賽靈思在這次分析師會(huì)議上突出了這個(gè)事實(shí)：它擁有可用于其所有28納米產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)軟件，而Altera迄今只為其高端28納米器件Statix-V提供了相應(yīng)軟件。較早地提供相關(guān)軟件，可以使賽靈思在贏得市場(chǎng)份額方面比Altera更占優(yōu)勢(shì)，同時(shí)有利于用戶從ASIC和ASSP轉(zhuǎn)向FPGA。 Ing表示，Gleacher的分析師們對(duì)于賽靈思將在2012財(cái)年加快推出產(chǎn)品的計(jì)劃感到意外。其財(cái)年將從本月末開(kāi)始。 Ing還建議投資者忽略這兩家公司在28納米節(jié)點(diǎn)上工藝技術(shù)的差異，他認(rèn)為關(guān)鍵在于執(zhí)行。賽靈思正在把一種高性能、低功耗工藝用于其所有28納米器件。而Altera正在把一種高性能工藝用于高端Statix-V器件，中低端產(chǎn)品則使用一種低功耗工藝。 Ing維持對(duì)賽靈思股票“買入”的評(píng)級(jí)，以及40美元的目標(biāo)股價(jià)，但考慮到賽靈思積極推出產(chǎn)品所涉及的研發(fā)費(fèi)用，他把2012年賽靈思每股盈余(EPS)預(yù)估從2.33美元調(diào)降到2.10美元。 ［轉(zhuǎn)下一頁(yè)：查看英文原文：Analysts: Xilinx could beat Altera to 28-nm］ {pagination} Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Programmable logic vendor Xilinx Inc. is poised for significant growth and could regain technology leadership from rival Altera at the 28-nm node after ceding Altera the advantage at the 40-nm node, according Wall Street analysts. Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets, wrote in a report circulated Tuesday (March 15) that Xilinx made a bold statement at its analyst meeting Monday about regaining leadership in FPGAs. Xilinx is the market leader in programmable logic, with sales of about $2.3 billion for calendar 2010. Altera, which had 2010 sales of about $1.95 billion, beat Xilinx to the punch at 40-nm, offering products several months before its rival. Both companies have said they would be sampling their first 28-nm devices this quarter. Last week, Mosesmann said Altera was poised to catch Xilinx in quarterly sales early next year. On Tuesday, Mosesmann said he and fellow FBR Capital Markets analysts were impressed with Xilinx' unified architecture approach at 28-nm. Xilinx is offering three classes of devices at 28-nm, moving for the first time to a unified, scalable architecture to enable customers to migrate 28-nm designs between the product families much more easily than has previously been possible. To regain technology leadership from Altera at 28-nm, Xilinx would have to overcome challenges in terms of manufacturing, pushing the envelope with its new stacked silicon interconnect technology, integrating analog functional blocks in low-end segments and execution, Mosesmann said. "Xilinx is attempting to do what normally would take two to three product cycles (six to eight years) in just two years," Mosesmann wrote. "Score a 10 for Xilinx in the chutzpah category in our book." Christopher Danely an analyst with JP Morgan, concurred with Mosesmann that Xilinx could catch Altera at 28-nm. "We believe Xilinx is at least in line or possibly even ahead of Altera in releasing products at this node as the company is now sampling its second 28-nm product, ahead of Altera, after sampling its first 28 nm product at the same time," Danely said in a report following the Xilinx analyst meeting. Mosesmann said Xilinx' mid-range 28-nm device family, Kintex, looks to be a winner, given that the architecture is optimized for that segment. According to Xilinx, the mid-range is the fastest growing segment of the market. At the high-end of the market, Xilinx' stacked silicon interconnect is both an innovation and a risk, given that it requires a new manufacturing process, Mosesmann said. Mosesmann maintains an "outperform" rating on Xilinx' stock and a share price target of $40. Danely maintains an "overweight" rating on Xilinx, also with a $40 price target. Xilinx' stock closed at $31.37 Tuesday. Ian Ing, an analyst with Gleacher & Co., said Xilinx highlighted at the analyst meeting the fact that it has design software available for all of its 28-nm product tiers, while Altera has only offered software for its high-end 28-nm Statix-V devices thus far. The earlier software availability could give Xilinx an advantage in gaining market share versus Altera and users moving to FPGAs from ASICs and ASSPs. Ing said Gleacher analysts were surprised to see Xilinx' accelerated tapeout schedule in its fiscal year 2012, which begins late this month. Ing also advised investors to ignore the differences in process technology between the two companies at 28-nm, saying the key was execution. Xilinx is using a high-performance, low-power process for all of its 28-nm devices, while Altera is using a high-performance process for high-end Statix-V devices and a low-power process for its mid- and low-tier products. Ing maintains a "buy" rating and $40 price target on Xilinx' stock, but he cut his firm's estimates on Xilinx' 2012 earnings per share to $2.10 from $2.33 because of the R&D expenses associated with Xilinx' aggressive tapeout schedule.